Brexit Thread VI - The Knockout Phase ?!?

[Hrothbern]

Interesting opinion poll given in the Guardian/Observer today.
Hidden away a bit, it seems. I wonder why.


<snip>
When given a binary option about next steps they would like to see on Brexit, almost half (48%) of UK adults now think the UK should leave the European Union with “no deal” on October 31st if the House of Commons cannot agree on a deal by then. Only 40% want to delay Brexit and hold a public vote.
https://www.theguardian.com/politic...ithful-trust-johnson-more-than-hunt-says-poll

I make that 55-45, excluding don’t knows

yes
most people want an end to this uncertainty: "get it done".
If you ask the same people what would you vote in a new referendum next week, you are (I guess) back at a small majority to Remain.

That "get it done" feeling is not only there among the people, but also among the politicians, the civil society, the companies.
And as usual, it is only the most determined, or most severely hit, that want to overcome that fatigue and succeed in that to some degree: keeping the end goal and results more clearly as priority.

The problem is that at the brink of that no-deal decision, when really looking into the (economical) abyss, that "get it done" changing into "jump", it starts being less attractive for the responsible and accountable leaders of that moment.
Especially when Boris would do that "jump" with very little support from Parliament.

That is also why I think new elections are really needed for Boris:
When jumping Boris needs the "herd protection" of a majority of the people voting for his club (and coalition), the "herd protection" of his whole club jumping.
Whatever happens then from Brexit will be, has to be, defended by that whole club.
And that club will have a fresh new 5 year term to end up with an economy growing again before the next elections.

 

[EnglishEdward]

Well regarding the "jump"

The UK people voted on 23 June 2016 to Leave the EU.

The EU Commission decided that it would not do a deal for Leaving, but a deal to penalise and/or prevent Leaving.

The UK Parliament has to decide which way to Jump:

(a) Do Nothing (and Leave without a Deal) with resultant chaos where preparations are inadequate

OR

(b) Grovel for a further extension (for which the EU would impose an onerous price).

If Parliament insists on (b); the Prime Minister (whether Boris Johnson or Jeremy Hunt) may well resign.
I don't believe that the Royal Household will wait another six weeks for yet another replacement Prime Minister.

They would likely put in someone such as Phil Hammond as a caretaker who would seek an extension
pending a general election. The general election would be indecisive and there'd be another referendum.

 

[Hrothbern]

(b) Grovel for a further extension (for which the EU would impose an onerous price).

If Parliament insists on (b); the Prime Minister (whether Boris Johnson or Jeremy Hunt) may well resign.
I don't believe that the Royal Household will wait another six weeks for yet another replacement Prime Minister.

They would likely put in someone such as Phil Hammond as a caretaker who would seek an extension
pending a general election. The general election would be indecisive and there'd be another referendum.

That "onerous" price ?
hm
I think that extension will be granted when new national elections will be decided by the UK at a fitting short date.

And even if those new elections would cause a hung Parliament... if a further extension would be asked for a new referendum, I guess that would still be granted as well.
Whereby I can imagine that granting extension for new elections wil have the "onerous" price, the condition, of setting at that time already the date for a possible referendum desired by the UK in case of a hung Parliament.

The UK people voted on 23 June 2016 to Leave the EU.

The EU Commission decided that it would not do a deal for Leaving, but a deal to penalise and/or prevent Leaving.

The UK Parliament has to decide which way to Jump:

(a) Do Nothing (and Leave without a Deal) with resultant chaos where preparations are inadequate

The EU took the position that the UK would get no privileges on top of the normal FTA that third countries like Canada, Japan, etc have. Those asked for privileges would violate the WTO rules on discrimination.
And yes, in order to get a FTA at all, the EU wants a solid solution to secure the Good Friday agreement.
If that is for you a penalty... we can only agree to disagree.

On those preparations for no-deal:
It is clear that Hammond and others obstruct a proper preparation of a no-deal, to advance their position to force the UK to a deal (and not waste money on preparations).
The bulk of the business in the UK has taken the same position as Hammond (in the opposite order): not waste money on a possible no-deal and from there increase the likeyhood on a deal.
I see prepping for a no-deal or not as a completely domestic affair of the UK.

 

[Kyriakos]

That "onerous" price ?
hm
I think that extension will be granted when new national elections will be decided by the UK at a fitting short date.

And even if those new elections would cause a hung Parliament... if a further extension would be asked for a new referendum, I guess that would still be granted as well.
Whereby I can imagine that granting extension for new elections wil have the "onerous" price, the condition, of setting at that time already the date for a possible referendum desired by the UK in case of a hung Parliament.



The EU took the position that the UK would get no privileges on top of the normal FTA that third countries like Canada, Japan, etc have. Those asked for privileges would violate the WTO rules on discrimination.
And yes, in order to get a FTA at all, the EU wants a solid solution to secure the Good Friday agreement.
If that is for you a penalty... we can only agree to disagree.

On those preparations for no-deal:
It is clear that Hammond and others obstruct a proper preparation of a no-deal, to advance their position to force the UK to a deal (and not waste money on preparations).
The bulk of the business in the UK has taken the same position as Hammond (in the opposite order): not waste money on a possible no-deal and from there increase the likeyhood on a deal.
I see prepping for a no-deal or not as a completely domestic affair of the UK.

The only good thing about all this is that the Eu at some point will have to decide between preventing a no-deal with the Uk, and keep not forcing sanctions on Turkey. Cause Cyprus isn't exactly as docile as Greece, and already said it will veto a Uk-Eu deal if Uk doesn't stop spewing garbage about the Cyprus economic zone.
In fact those british military bases should just leave the island. They are only there because the british killed many during the cypriot struggle for independence.

 

[Hrothbern]

The only good thing about all this is that the Eu at some point will have to decide between preventing a no-deal with the Uk, and keep not forcing sanctions on Turkey. Cause Cyprus isn't exactly as docile as Greece, and already said it will veto a Uk-Eu deal if Uk doesn't stop spewing garbage about the Cyprus economic zone.
In fact those british military bases should just leave the island. They are only there because the british killed many during the cypriot struggle for independence.

Cyprus, Gibraltar, Greece, Protectorates, the dot-islands....
Somehow the remnants of the British empire are haunting all of us
As a kid I collected post stamps, and my focus was the British Commonwealth because of so many beautifull post stamps, small pieces of educational art. (my father and grandfather had focussed on Europe).
Cyprus... beuhhhhh.
Another wasp nest.
I hope BTW Erdogan gets today a good beating in the new Istanbul election (after Erdogan lost there this year he declared that election frauded).
Erdogan is losing international standing and will claim the opposite, and Cyprus is for him a pawn for his self-presevation politics.
I think he is gonna find out that that softie of a EU is growing hair on its teeth.

 

[Sofista]

Well regarding the "jump"

The UK people voted on 23 June 2016 to Leave the EU.

The EU Commission decided that it would not do a deal for Leaving, but a deal to penalise and/or prevent Leaving.

The UK Parliament has to decide which way to Jump:

(a) Do Nothing (and Leave without a Deal) with resultant chaos where preparations are inadequate

OR

(b) Grovel for a further extension (for which the EU would impose an onerous price). (...)

Can you offer a reason for the EU not dealing with brexit as an acrimonious divorce (other than "the EU is nothing more than a business committee" [to clarify, I'm not putting words in your mouth; I'm of the opinion that circumstances like the Brexit are real, concrete tests to see what the EU really stands for]?

 

[EnglishEdward]

....e Cyprus isn't exactly as docile as Greece, and already said it will veto a Uk-Eu deal if Uk doesn't stop spewing garbage about the Cyprus economic zone.

You have alluded to the Cyprus economic zone in the past;
I have seen nothing about that in the UK papers I've read.

Do you have a URL ?

 

[Kyriakos]

You have alluded to the Cyprus economic zone in the past;
I have seen nothing about that in the UK papers I've read.

Do you have a URL ?

https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-d&q=cyprus+protests+britain+zone

 

[EnglishEdward]

Thank you. I have extracted from that URL:

Duncan told British MPs on Tuesday: "The position of the UK is that, in line with the UN Convention
on the Law of the Sea, exploratory drilling should not proceed in any area where sovereignty is under dispute."

Along with EU states, the United States, Egypt and Israel have also criticised the Turkish move.

Turkey says it is drilling inside its continental shelf and complying with international law.

It does not recognise the Cyprus government which it regards as an exclusively Greek Cypriot administration.

As it is Turkey trying to drill, I'd have thought that Duncan's statement is if anything supportive of greek Cyprus.
And I really don't think that a UK minister requires the permission of either Greece or greek Cyprus to brief his MPs.

 

[Kyriakos]

Thank you. I have extracted from that URL:



As it is Turkey trying to drill, I'd have thought that Duncan's statement is if anything supportive of greek Cyprus.
And I really don't think that a UK minister requires the permission of either Greece or greek Cyprus to brief his MPs.

Well, it wasn't in support of greek Cyprus, and was reckless. Uk aspires maybe to also have its military bases there have an economic zone ( ).
Anyway, the issue here is that the cypriot government is ready to use its veto against an Eu-Britain deal if Britain doesn't back off regarding the economic zone.

 

[really]

Thank you. I have extracted from that URL:



As it is Turkey trying to drill, I'd have thought that Duncan's statement is if anything supportive of greek Cyprus.
And I really don't think that a UK minister requires the permission of either Greece or greek Cyprus to brief his MPs.

Disputed implies they have some sort of a reasonable claim - they don't and the UKs position is out of sync with the rest of the EU.

The EU is threatening sanctions on Turkey - the UK stays Turkey might have a point.

Not a popular position in Cyprus.

 

[EnglishEdward]

Uk aspires maybe to also have its military bases there have an economic zone ( )

Has the UK ever claimed those bases have an economic zone?

or is this paranoia set to 100%.

 

[Hrothbern]

Anyway, the issue here is that the cypriot government is ready to use its veto against an Eu-Britain deal if Britain doesn't back off regarding the economic zone.

I can imagine that Cyprus would want to hurt the UK because of that.

But by doing that veto it will also hurt Ireland, Netherlands, Denmark heavily and other EU members.

Cyprus could argue that honor is more valuable than money.
But that is easy when it is not your own money.
BTW the annual Brexit damage of only the Netherlands is already 80% of the total annual GDP of Cyprus !

I remembered there was a short while ago a Southern EU summit (we have such regional summits since the Brexit referendum) and if I read now the formal Declaration of France, Italy, Spain, Portugal, Greece, Malta and Cyprus...
The position of the EU is pretty clear.
And as really said, the UK is deviating.
And Cyprus would do well to prioritise and secure together with the EU, in good harmony, the money from its sea territory, and have the EU stop those illegal Turkish actions.

Here that Valetta Declaration:
https://www.southeusummit.com/about/valletta-declaration/

22. sovereign rights to explore, exploit and develop its natural resources within its EEZ, in line with EU and international law. In line with previous Council and European Council Conclusions, we recall Turkey’s obligation to respect international law and good neighbourly relations. We express our deep regret that Turkey has not responded to the European Union’s repeated calls condemning Turkey’s illegal continued actions in the Eastern Mediterranean and Aegean Sea and express serious concern over actual or potential drilling activities within Cyprus’ EEZ. We ask the European Union to remain seized on the matter and, in case Turkey does not cease its illegal activities, to consider appropriate measures in full solidarity with Cyprus.

23. We call on Turkey to fulfil its obligations under the negotiation framework including the full non-discriminatory implementation of the additional protocol to the association agreement towards all Member States. We reiterate that recognition of all Member States is essential. In this regard we reiterate our call on Turkey to normalise relations with Cyprus.

Oh
Erdogan got apparently his electional beating up in "his" Istanbul... the difference in this re-election (after Erdogan's "fraud" accusation of the March elections) now so big that the local AKP leader has already congratulated the CHP leader before the final results.
People in urban developed areas get tired of him.
Erdogan will be in a tough spot the coming months and years from a lot of sides, domestic and international, political and economical, from his own arrogance.
Let's wait and see how much nerve he has on this Cyprus issue.

 

[EnglishEdward]

According to the Sunday Times, Boris Johnson is less popular in Scotland than Nigel Farage.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/scotland/boris-victory-will-end-union-lbmrc09vt

It found he has a popularity rating among Scottish voters of -37, a worse rating than Nigel Farage.

Erdogan got apparently his electional beating up in "his" Istanbul... the difference in this re-election (after Erdogan's "fraud" accusation of the March elections) now so big that the local AKP leader has already congratulated the CHP leader before the final results.
People in urban developed areas get tired of him.

Serves him right for not accepting the previous vote of the Istanbul people.

 

[Hrothbern]

Serves him right for not accepting the previous vote of the Istanbul people.

That interim between elections allowed Erdogan the time to polish up the books of Istanbul.
Turkey is a patronage culture and Istanbul the spider in the web of Turkey.
Istanbul is in every sense of the word since decades the home town of Erdogan and the AKP (and 30% of the GDP of Turkey).
After the March 2019 election, the new and official Mayor had official access to the financial books of Istanbul and started with making public the $ 4-5 Billion debt of the city.
Well... his official Mayorship lasted in all 13 days... after all... he got there illegally according to Erdogan.
I guess that a lot of evidence of Erdogan's personal patronage activities will have disappeared by now.

 

[innonimatu]

Serves him right for not accepting the previous vote of the Istanbul people.

And is that not an important lesson that many people in the UK could learn from?

 

[Kyriakos]

I can imagine that Cyprus would want to hurt the UK because of that.

But by doing that veto it will also hurt Ireland, Netherlands, Denmark heavily and other EU members.

Cyprus could argue that honor is more valuable than money.
But that is easy when it is not your own money.
BTW the annual Brexit damage of only the Netherlands is already 80% of the total annual GDP of Cyprus !

I remembered there was a short while ago a Southern EU summit (we have such regional summits since the Brexit referendum) and if I read now the formal Declaration of France, Italy, Spain, Portugal, Greece, Malta and Cyprus...
The position of the EU is pretty clear.
And as really said, the UK is deviating.
And Cyprus would do well to prioritise and secure together with the EU, in good harmony, the money from its sea territory, and have the EU stop those illegal Turkish actions.

Here that Valetta Declaration:
https://www.southeusummit.com/about/valletta-declaration/



Oh
Erdogan got apparently his electional beating up in "his" Istanbul... the difference in this re-election (after Erdogan's "fraud" accusation of the March elections) now so big that the local AKP leader has already congratulated the CHP leader before the final results.
People in urban developed areas get tired of him.
Erdogan will be in a tough spot the coming months and years from a lot of sides, domestic and international, political and economical, from his own arrogance.
Let's wait and see how much nerve he has on this Cyprus issue.

Erdogan claimed that the now new mayor of Constantinople is greek.
Curious to have a greek be part of the kemalist party. One would expect him to be like Kemal himself, ie jewish

 

[Hrothbern]

Erdogan claimed that the now new mayor of Constantinople is greek.
Curious to have a greek be part of the kemalist party. One would expect him to be like Kemal himself, ie jewish

From Dutch National news (Google translated):

His terrorism accusation against Imamoglu is more than just campaign rhetoric. In recent years, dozens of elected mayors in Turkey have been expelled by presidential decree because of alleged terrorism. With his statement, Erdogan also sends a message: if Imamoglu wins, I can still drop him off.
https://nos.nl/nieuwsuur/artikel/22...nbul-ultieme-test-voor-turkse-democratie.html

Erdogan made already the veiled threat to dispose of the person elected.
So if for him being Greek is a first step up to being a terrorist....

 

[Arakhor]

And is that not an important lesson that many people in the UK could learn from?

40 years of long experience has shown me that, no, people do not learn from voting in the Tories again and again.

 

[Takhisis]

^And that the Tories never learn from launching one wrong election after another.