Daily Mail posits terrifying new European war

[innonimatu]

I don't see how the EU would crumble in any way. The benefits in matters of trade are just too big to send the entire EU to hell. The EU might get downsized in its powers (for example, the Eurozone might go bust) but it doesn't spell the end for the Common market.

Simple: tre trade benefits you mention are not mutual.

 

[Incodcito]

Entertaining scenario... but little else.

 

[_random_]

So how are you guys gonna drag us into this one?

 

[NickyJ]

Will
Not
Happen

Even if it's just me going over on a fishing boat with my dog and guns, help will come for our mother country.

This. I'll attach a sail to my canoe if I have to.

Well to be honest, the dog was the bigger threat there, not the fishing boat.

 

[Glassfan]

Contemporary politics and international relations are so interwoven and complicated that you simply can't predict anything past a very obvious and limited timeframe.

You can predict death, taxes and wars.

There have always been wars. There are wars now. And there will be wars in the future. Absolutely. Bet your life on it. Almost certainly unlike the article, but they will happen.

Europe has had a peaceful time since WWII. Very probably because of the stability of nuclear deterance between the former superpowers. But that's over now.

I hope I'm wrong.

 

[Singularity]

You can predict death, taxes and wars.

There have always been wars. There are wars now. And there will be wars in the future. Absolutely. Bet your life on it. Almost certainly unlike the article, but they will happen.

Europe has had a peaceful time since WWII. Very probably because of the stability of nuclear deterance between the former superpowers. But that's over now.

I hope I'm wrong.

No, nuclear deterance went nowhere. We can still make all of Russia glow in the dark, and they can do the same to us. Which is why we would never risk elevating anything beyond hypoteticals or fringe skirmishes, like the one in Georgia. China is in the same boat, and they got no conventional military might to speak of - yet.

I don't think people quite realize how difficult it is to prepare for and maintain a war. Financially you can look at US budgets and see exactly what the last 10 years of warfare has cost them - the elasticity of that financial market was allready stretched before the mortgage crisis surfaced.

However, we still enjoy a reasonable level of comfort in the developed world. And the wast majority knows it's because we cooperate. You can only gain so much momentum by rioting and blaming your own elected government. It takes more than a few thousand molotov coctails to do that. Sure, they might escalate it to terrorism. Where will that get them on the train of public sympathy?

We will have wars. But they will be just as predictable as what happened in the Arab countries after some financially challenged Tunisian fruit seller decided enough is enough and put himself on fire(anyone saying they saw that one coming is a bloody liar). And they had so much potential energy of pent up aggression due to many decades of suffering under a dictatorship - where did we experience that in Europe the last time?

We're giving the financial market too much credit on it's ability to screw us all royally over. It's all smoke and mirriors that can't replace infrastructure, trained labor and peoples willingness to earn a living.

 

[GoodGame]

Quoting this brilliant science fiction (circa 2018):

Last week, addressing a vast crowd in French-occupied Brussels, Nicolas Sarkozy declared that it was ‘time to extinguish the stain of Waterloo’.

‘Britain has always been part of Europe — even if they have refused to recognise it,’ he said.

‘It is time to welcome them into our family — by force, if necessary.’

A few diehards talk of fighting in the last ditch. But no one seriously believes that Britain can hold out for long.

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...euro-meltdown-spark-battle.html#ixzz1cKYJmfRF

LOL

 

[emzie]

This... I can't believe this is in a major paper. It's more insane than I'd've dare give the Fail credit for.

 

[Arwon]

This is a work of twisted genius.

 

[Babbler]

I think a more plausible implausible scenario would be something like this:

2011-12: Greeks revolt over austerity measures. Tax revenues fall and the Greek government is unable to meet the demands of its creditors. Under the guise of restoring order to rebelled areas, the Greek government declares a state of emergency dispatches the army. The army is given two specific tasks: restore order and collect back taxes. Greek civilians begin fighting with the army.

2012, February: France and Germany try to get European support for a "peacekeeping" operation in Greece. Italy, torn by internal problems and fearful of retribution, goes along with the Franco-German proposal. Britain, Spain, Poland, and other European states reject and the proposal does not go forward. Three weeks later, France unilaterally declares it will intervene in Greece. Merkel decides to try and play both sides and appease domestic opinion by only offering "logistical support" but no combat troops. Almost immediately, a vote of no confidence is held and Merkel is ousted -- the German support never arrives. German taxpayers celebrate.

2012, April: French intervention in Greece continues and the Greek government remains largely unable to control much of its territory. Greek troops begin to resent French troops, who are increasingly taking command of their own army with the compliance of the flaccid Greek government. Sarkozy is defeated in the first round of the French presidential election. Hollande (PS) and Le Pen (FN) are the two run-off candidates.

2012, May: French voters, skeptical of Hollande's pledge to return French troops from Greece, elect Marine Le Pen. Le Pen, upon assumption of office, orders an immediate evacuation of French troops from Greece. The Greek government collapses and is replaced by an "interim" military administration. Greece withdraws from the frail European Union and declares bankruptcy. France quickly follows suit and issues francs at 1:1 to the euro and leaves the EU. Germany, unwilling to foot the bill for the other eurozone states, follows France and reissues the mark at 1:1 too, but tries to in vein rescue the EU. Britain leaves the EU and is soon followed by Poland, Romania, and Bulgaria.

2012, June: The battered EU votes to dissolve itself in six months. The remaining eurozone currencies try to pick up the pieces. The Baltic states discuss a single currency but are unable to reach an agreement. The United States, thankfully, has avoided intervention altogether. Life goes on.

I could see the Greek revolting (the Greek Spring?) and the issue of NATO intervention coming up. But can't see how France would invade unilaterally or electing LePen, even under the worst of circumstances.

 

[amadeus]

I could see the Greek revolting (the Greek Spring?) and the issue of NATO intervention coming up. But can't see how France would invade unilaterally or electing LePen, even under the worst of circumstances.

The French intervention would occur at the invitation of the Greek government, but it would be France strong-arming the Greeks into inviting the intervention. Greece would have choices, just only the choices France gives them.

Le Pen, on the other hand, is a stretch but I could see French voters rejecting a pro-European candidate if things were going as badly as they would play out in some scenario. I don't know how French electoral districts are drawn, but I could see the FN's protectionist rhetoric appealing to French agriculture workers and their anti-Europeanism appealing to middle class taxpayers that would feel the squeeze from more possible bailouts/Germany refusing further intervention.

 

[Winner]

It's funny that the Americans here are the only ones who are taking this article at least partially seriously

I think it's time for a song:


Link to video.

Ridiculous, perhaps, but it's a sure damn fun read.

Not really. It fails both as a sarcastic commentary on the present-day situation in Europe and as a serious attempt at a plausible worst-case scenario. It is incoherent and it relies on nationalistic stereotypes that are neither accurate nor funnily present.

Personal opinion: The British press alone is a reason enough to kick the country out of the EU

 

[Tahuti]

Simple: tre trade benefits you mention are not mutual.

Then the EU should have been disintegrated already, if that were the case. Try to imagine a France that treats German goods the same way it treats American and Chinese goods (in a hypothetical world without European free trade agreements).

 

[Snorrius]

Goodness gracious, this is a very scary scenario. Could it really happen?

At least it have an unusual twist about France which goes to rule the world. Russia in this scenario just takes what already should belong to her.

 

[Peck of Arabia]

Looking back at the article; I had no idea Sarkozy has such a Napoleonic streak in him, apparently all it takes it financial turmoil to bring it out...

Also, as a history student, I take exception to the fact that Dominic Sandbrook is referred to as a historian, they should at least have the decency to put the term in quotation marks when they do.

EDIT

I've also just seen the comments on the Daily Mail site, the vast majority of comments there lambast this article as nonsense, too; even Daily Mail readers are not buying Sandbrooks reasoning; and they buy into a lot, especially in the name of Euroskepticism

 

[IrishDragon]

Even for the Daily Mail that's a surprising article. The basic message of the Mail is "Don't leave the house because there's scary immigrants out there trying to steal your job, so stay in and keep reading our paper."

Also, interesting fact about the Mail; in 1934 they ran with the headline "Hurrah for the Blackshirts." Personally I wouldn't trust a Mail reporter as far as I could throw one.

I think it's more surprising that its basically a pro-European article, if it's agreeing that an EU collapse will lead to war.

Does the Daily Mail frequently carry way out science fiction stories? I can't see any of this happening. It might make an interesting Civ scenario though.

They had one a while back about a nuclear war involving the US and China, I think Putin was cast as the peace maker

 

[GoodGame]

I think this should be scripted and directed by Edgar Wright (Shawn of the Dead), and it should try to surpass Red Dawn in this metric:

At the time it was released, Red Dawn was considered the most violent film by the Guinness Book of Records and The National Coalition on Television Violence, with a rate of 134 acts of violence per hour, or 2.23 per minute.[5] The DVD Special Edition (2007) includes an on-screen "Carnage Counter" in a nod to this.[6]

 

[Ziggy Stardust]

I think a more plausible implausible scenario would be something like this:

2011-12: Greeks revolt over austerity measures. Tax revenues fall and the Greek government is unable to meet the demands of its creditors. Under the guise of restoring order to rebelled areas, the Greek government declares a state of emergency dispatches the army. The army is given two specific tasks: restore order and collect back taxes. Greek civilians begin fighting with the army.

2012, February: France and Germany try to get European support for a "peacekeeping" operation in Greece. Italy, torn by internal problems and fearful of retribution, goes along with the Franco-German proposal. Britain, Spain, Poland, and other European states reject and the proposal does not go forward. Three weeks later, France unilaterally declares it will intervene in Greece. Merkel decides to try and play both sides and appease domestic opinion by only offering "logistical support" but no combat troops. Almost immediately, a vote of no confidence is held and Merkel is ousted -- the German support never arrives. German taxpayers celebrate.

2012, April: French intervention in Greece continues and the Greek government remains largely unable to control much of its territory. Greek troops begin to resent French troops, who are increasingly taking command of their own army with the compliance of the flaccid Greek government. Sarkozy is defeated in the first round of the French presidential election. Hollande (PS) and Le Pen (FN) are the two run-off candidates.

2012, May: French voters, skeptical of Hollande's pledge to return French troops from Greece, elect Marine Le Pen. Le Pen, upon assumption of office, orders an immediate evacuation of French troops from Greece. The Greek government collapses and is replaced by an "interim" military administration. Greece withdraws from the frail European Union and declares bankruptcy. France quickly follows suit and issues francs at 1:1 to the euro and leaves the EU. Germany, unwilling to foot the bill for the other eurozone states, follows France and reissues the mark at 1:1 too, but tries to in vein rescue the EU. Britain leaves the EU and is soon followed by Poland, Romania, and Bulgaria.

2012, June: The battered EU votes to dissolve itself in six months. The remaining eurozone currencies try to pick up the pieces. The Baltic states discuss a single currency but are unable to reach an agreement. The United States, thankfully, has avoided intervention altogether. Life goes on.

There should be an atomic bomb featured there somewhere. Someting like:

2012, June: France blows up an atol just to show the world they're pissed off.

 

[amadeus]

I can have the GIGN blow up a Greenpeace boat if you think that would spice it up.

 

[classical_hero]

Truth is stranger than fiction.