Deportation: Millions must go!

[JollyRoger]

Disruption caused by trying to deal with nearly half a decade of non enforcement.

Half a century at least.

 

[Farm Boy]

Yeah, but they're not going to message on that.

Much less be happy about paying what they demand to be paid.

 

[Lexicus]

These people will dream of and will gladly escape economic exploitation when they'll have a slightest chance. The fact that there is a line of people doesn't mean that the job is great and they are actually "hoping" to keep that job. They're desperate. And Uncle Sam, represented by the "expert" in the article, theorizes, like an aristocrat, that “In the short term, New Mexico’s agricultural producers have no economically viable alternatives to immigrant labor". I get it, immigrant labour is cheap and makes an oligarch richer faster. But the river is about to thin out, so, New Mexico, watch out.

Undocumented labor is cheap and Americans hate price increases more than anything else, or so I'm told. Something has to give here.

 

[Cutlass]

The way he could do it would be to criminalise employers of people without the right to work. He will not because that would hurt the people he wants to help.

I have to say, is this an attempt at protecting The Albuquerque Journal, and Matthew Narvaiz, to punish them for their paywall or to protect us? You could link to an paywall avoider or even a news aggregator.

I am not advocating for the criminalisation of migration, but I think it is a bad argument to use. If you are going to make it, I think one (and I mean Matthew Narvaiz not you) should make it in numbers. Just grabbing a few numbers from google, the current US agricultural wage bill is about 2.3% of the current US food bill, or $8/week resident. We could double wages and most people would not notice it if the increase was passed on directly. Is this the "much more expensive" they are talking about? Or have they got something else in mind?

Spoiler Working :

US Farm Hired Workers 850,000 [1]
Wage Rate $18.5 (?) [2]
Houts/Month Guess 40 hours/week, 170/month?  Probably a bit low, but if we include the off season then perhaps?

Average monthly cost of groceries per person, take middle state:
25    New Jersey    Newark (277,100)    $343.67 [3]

US Population 335,893,238 [4]

US grocery bill = 343.67 * 335893238 = $115,436,429,103
US Farm wage bill = 18.5 * 850000 * 170 = $2,673,250,000
US Farm wage bill as proportion of US grocery bill = 2673250000 / 115436429103 = 0.0232 or 2.32%
US Farm wage bill per US resident = 2673250000 / 335893238 = $7.96

[1] US Farm Hired Workers https://www.nass.usda.gov/Charts_and_Maps/Farm_Labor/fl_qtrwk.php
[2] Wage Rate https://www.nass.usda.gov/Charts_and_Maps/Farm_Labor/fl_allwg.php
[3] Average monthly cost of groceries https://www.zippia.com/advice/average-cost-of-groceries-by-state/
[4] US Population https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_the_United_States

There is no alternative labor force, at any price. Those jobs will just go undone.

I don't think he has to do much about the deportation issue - perhaps some symbolic deportations, such as mentioned above. It's a side dish to the main course - the border security. Which currently allows rivers of illegals cross the southern border. So when Trump solves (or appear to solve) border security by throwing considerable military and civilian resources at the border, and the statistics will show rapid reduction in crossings - he'll declare victory and move on to popularising bitcoin or whatever his sponsors and sympathisers currently want him to do.

The US border cannot be secured on that scale. There's 10,000 miles of it, and 10,000 other entry points.

Just looking at the numbers, the US has a little under 350 million people and they're talking about expulsion of between 10 or 15 million people. It's hard to imagine how it could forcibly expel every 30th person in the country without some very serious humanitarian consequences.

And economic ones.

These people will dream of and will gladly escape economic exploitation when they'll have a slightest chance. The fact that there is a line of people doesn't mean that the job is great and they are actually "hoping" to keep that job. They're desperate. And Uncle Sam, represented by the "expert" in the article, theorizes, like an aristocrat, that “In the short term, New Mexico’s agricultural producers have no economically viable alternatives to immigrant labor". I get it, immigrant labour is cheap and makes an oligarch richer faster. But the river is about to thin out, so, New Mexico, watch out.

It's not the oligarchs. It's the farmers. And the people who buy the food. The labor is cheap, because they have no bargaining power. But the labor can't be replaced, at any wage. There's no one else to go to.

 

[Farm Boy]

Oh, it can definitely be replaced for wage.

 

[Cutlass]

Not by US citizens.

 

[Samson]

Not by US citizens.

They will be if the wages are high enough.

 

[Zardnaar]

They will be if the wages are high enough.

They used to do it. Same here. Hell I've done it.

 

[Voidwalkin]

Don't think it's gonna happen.

Optics will be too bad, and there will be too much bureaucratic and elite resistance from those who have servants. He will back off while promoting minor successes heavily, with his customary belligerent style.

The tell-tale sign it actually could to me is massive ICE staffing. Even then, I think he'd need to create a new arm for that job, staffed entirely by loyalists with zeal.

They used to do it. Same here. Hell I've done it.

Me too. I heard an economist claim(Annie Lowrey) you can't find Americans to do roofing work. Which is odd, because I, uh, did it. She was of the mind it's too hot for Americans. Which, really, is almost something I'd expect to hear a plantation owner say.

Yet, these are the people who determine what is and is not serious thought. Suppose it shows a consensus by experts is only slightly less likely incorrect than one by plebs.

 

[Cutlass]

They will be if the wages are high enough.

No. Just no. You're talking about the most physically difficult and unpleasant jobs. One where you can't have a home, because you have to migrate with the harvests. Where you can't have a family, because there's no way to keep the kids in school.

And this is in a country where everyone capable of doing that work can find better jobs.

So, you're thinking what? $100,000 a year? More? How do the farmers stay in business?

 

[Samson]

No. Just no. You're talking about the most physically difficult and unpleasant jobs. One where you can't have a home, because you have to migrate with the harvests. Where you can't have a family, because there's no way to keep the kids in school.

They manage to solve this problem in places and industries where you cannot get away with exploitative labour. Farm labour is necessarily outside and physical, it does not have to be an unlivable life.

So, you're thinking what? $100,000 a year? More? How do the farmers stay in business?

$100,000 for 2,000 hours is $50/hour. From my calculations that would be ~7% on the food bill, or $24/week per person.

 

[Voidwalkin]

No. Just no. You're talking about the most physically difficult and unpleasant jobs. One where you can't have a home, because you have to migrate with the harvests. Where you can't have a family, because there's no way to keep the kids in school.

And this is in a country where everyone capable of doing that work can find better jobs.

So, you're thinking what? $100,000 a year? More? How do the farmers stay in business?

I would consider doing that sort of work for 40k/year, 50k, even presuming those difficulties are hard limitations to the business(and they are not).

I oppose mass deportation for ethical reasons. Opposing it so the wealthy can continue to have access to a cheap labor pool is not correct. There is no need to protect it.

 

[Cutlass]

They manage to solve this problem in places and industries where you cannot get away with exploitative labour. Farm labour is necessarily outside and physical, it does not have to be an unlivable life.

$100,000 for 2,000 hours is $50/hour. From my calculations that would be ~7% on the food bill, or $24/week per person.

Farmers Across the Midwest Struggle to Hire Domestic Employees - Modern Farmer

In Illinois, the number of foreign agricultural workers has increased more than 250 percent in the past five years.

modernfarmer.com

Immigrant Farmworkers and America's Food Production - 5 Things to Know

Modernizing the temporary visa program, and establishing a pathway to citizenship for long-term undocumented agricultural workers, is urgently needed to protect America’s agriculture industry and farmworkers alike.

www.fwd.us

Finding workers was already hard for the ag industry. Now, it's even worse, farmers say

Farming in Pennsylvania is an $81 billion-a-year industry, yet many farmers say local workers aren’t interested in taking the jobs available

www.usatoday.com

https://www.npr.org/2023/07/27/1187682674/farm-workers-guest-workers-h-2a-visa-agricultural-harvest-farm-labor

It's not like what you're saying hasn't been tried, and failed, for decades now.

 

[Samson]

Farmers Across the Midwest Struggle to Hire Domestic Employees - Modern Farmer

In Illinois, the number of foreign agricultural workers has increased more than 250 percent in the past five years.

modernfarmer.com

Immigrant Farmworkers and America's Food Production - 5 Things to Know

Modernizing the temporary visa program, and establishing a pathway to citizenship for long-term undocumented agricultural workers, is urgently needed to protect America’s agriculture industry and farmworkers alike.

www.fwd.us

Finding workers was already hard for the ag industry. Now, it's even worse, farmers say

Farming in Pennsylvania is an $81 billion-a-year industry, yet many farmers say local workers aren’t interested in taking the jobs available

www.usatoday.com

https://www.npr.org/2023/07/27/1187682674/farm-workers-guest-workers-h-2a-visa-agricultural-harvest-farm-labor

It's not like what you're saying hasn't been tried, and failed, for decades now.

Without reading a load of news stories, are they saying they are offering $100k salaries for farm work and not getting employees?

If not they are not trying what I am saying.

 

[Farm Boy]

The farm program is the food program. It's adjustable. Production and distribution.

 

[Cutlass]

Without reading a load of news stories, are they saying they are offering $100k salaries for farm work and not getting employees?

If not they are not trying what I am saying.

I'm saying that nothing that has been tried will fill the jobs with Americans. And you haven't made a proposal that makes any sense at all. You aren't considering the problem.

Anyone who can do that work, can get a better job.

That's the problem. And the US simply doesn't have a surplus of labor capable of doing that work. These jobs aren't going to immigrants because the immigrants are being exploited. And they are not going to immigrants because they are displacing Americans from the jobs. They are going to immigrants because despite the low pay and awful conditions, they are better jobs than those people could get if they stayed home. And all of the farmers who can't hire immigrants are going to go out of business. Now the wages could be higher, and conditions better. But that takes legalizing the migrant labor workforce. But without legalizing it, even those farmers offering better pay and conditions struggle, and usually fail, to get all the labor they need.

 

[Farm Boy]

Well, it's better than whatever ****hole you came from, eh?

 

[Samson]

I'm saying that nothing that has been tried will fill the jobs with Americans. And you haven't made a proposal that makes any sense at all. You aren't considering the problem.

Anyone who can do that work, can get a better job.

These jobs are not better because of some inherent feature of the work, the jobs are better because they are better paid. If the people who are picking the fruit were getting the $10/Kg people are paying in the shop then picking the fruit would be a good job.

Take this graph. Are not people doing farm work because it is hard, or is it because it pays half what non-farm work pays?

Spoiler Wage Rate :

 

[Farm Boy]

About like redneck. Same social strata, too. They both trend toward mechanical and operating work as they age, slow down, and skill up.

I'm sorry you don't like it, but I'm going to shrug at this just as hard as I am going to shrug at somebody calling me a redneck while arguing that an honest day's work is probably worth an honest day's pay, especially if it is hard work.

 

[Birdjaguar]

Oh, it can definitely be replaced for wage.

What wage and how will small farmers like you afford that wage?

They manage to solve this problem in places and industries where you cannot get away with exploitative labour. Farm labour is necessarily outside and physical, it does not have to be an unlivable life.

$100,000 for 2,000 hours is $50/hour. From my calculations that would be ~7% on the food bill, or $24/week per person.

7% on food bills wills till put the actual farmers out of business.