Do you have any statistics on swing voters that you could use to back up the assertion?
Election 2024 Part III: Out with the old!
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Voidwalkin
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The most recent poll I've seen, from CNN, suggested 2% of voters are undecided, with an additional 12% indicating they have a preference but may yet change their minds.
Capturing 60% of that 2% would lead to a very strong Harris night, if current polls are accurate. Increasing voter motivation and turnout would be difficult. If Jan 6 does not motivate a Dem voter to show up, I'm unsure what angle could realistically be taken that would make the difference. Driving people to the voting both is already planned to the extent it's practicable. TV ads are full speed in the battlegrounds.
25, 30k undecideds in Pennsylvania might swing this whole thing, which is... unideal, but it is what it is.
Foxnews now reports a narrow lead for VP Harris in Georgia:
https://www.foxnews.com/official-polls/fox-news-poll-harris-ahead-trump-3-points-georgia
Other outlets polls suggest a very close race in Georgia with a ~0.8% Trump lead.
https://www.foxnews.com/official-polls/fox-news-poll-harris-ahead-trump-3-points-georgia
Other outlets polls suggest a very close race in Georgia with a ~0.8% Trump lead.
Trump is now selling watches. They even tell the time correctly twice per day.
https://www.newsweek.com/fashion-expert-slams-crappy-100k-trump-watch-derek-guy-1960282
https://www.newsweek.com/fashion-expert-slams-crappy-100k-trump-watch-derek-guy-1960282
Probably time for a "Generations" discussion thread...
538 only has one poll left in their national aggregation that shows Trump in the lead and its only by 1%. There are also 2 older polls that have the race tied. The rest of the polls show Harris leading, with multiple polls having her up by 6% and a recent Echelon Insights poll having her up 7% (52% to 45%)
538 only has one poll left in their national aggregation that shows Trump in the lead and its only by 1%. There are also 2 older polls that have the race tied. The rest of the polls show Harris leading, with multiple polls having her up by 6% and a recent Echelon Insights poll having her up 7% (52% to 45%)
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Yeah. She's peaking. All downhill from here.
Preserved for later quoting.
We're getting to the point where there isn't any space in the polling numbers for both candidates to "outperform". In 2020, RCP's final pre-election average was Biden 51.2% and Trump 44.0%. That left 4.8% of space for both candidates to outperform, which they did, Biden by 0.2% and Trump by 2.9%. Some of the polls coming out recently are going 51-49% and 52-48% and similar, leaving little or no room for both candidates to outperform.
That said, 538 currently has Harris up 2.9% at 48.6% and Trump at 45.7%. That leaves a healthy 5.7% margin for both to outperform the polls. If Trump matches his 2.5% outperformance in 2016 and Harris does your predicted 2.6% outperformance she ends up with 51.2% and Trump ends up with 48.2%, leaving 0.4% for other candidates and giving Harris a 3.0% percent edge over Trump, which coincidentally, was the magic number @Zardnaar IIRC was hypothesizing earlier.
Gori the Grey
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As in coasting to a victory, you mean?
At least its not all over the hill
Lexicus
Deity
Note this is only true if you assume the polls are representative. If you don't assume that, then the 'space' for either candidate to outperform their polling widens.
GenMarshall
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Harris is participating in a Soap Box Derby?
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Felon
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So also, don't some pollsters give only the two options?
I was thinking today about Trump's age and the likelihood of him dying in office if he wins in November. That probability is not low. Imagine if Vance became president in 2026. Imagine Vance as president ever.
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Felon
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I can't. I couldn't imagine Trump before he won. I can't imagine either Walz or Harris either. I could see Biden as VP. But the only person on either ticket going back to 2016 that seemed or seems plausibly presidential was Pence and he was a stretch. Obama, McCain and Romney were all head and shoulders above what we've been dealing with. We need to fix it but here we are, probably on the eve of a global war with nothing.
MSN
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I wonder if Robinson was set up by the Deep State.
There is no "deep state".
(NewsNation) — North Carolina Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson was treated for second-degree burns on a hand Friday night after suffering the injury at a campaign event in Mt. Airy. His campaign tells NewsNation that Robinson was discharged and will return to the campaign trail Saturday.
Robinson was burned when he put his hand on a truck at the event, according to a Washington Post journalist posting on X.
Robinson has been under intense pressure to quit his campaign for governor, and even to resign his current post, since reports surfaced of old online posts in which Robinson referred to himself as a ‘black NAZI;” said he enjoyed transgender pornography; said in 2012 he preferred Hitler to then-President Barack Obama; and slammed the late Rev. Martin Luther King Jr. as “worse than a maggot.”
Robinson was burned when he put his hand on a truck at the event, according to a Washington Post journalist posting on X.
Robinson has been under intense pressure to quit his campaign for governor, and even to resign his current post, since reports surfaced of old online posts in which Robinson referred to himself as a ‘black NAZI;” said he enjoyed transgender pornography; said in 2012 he preferred Hitler to then-President Barack Obama; and slammed the late Rev. Martin Luther King Jr. as “worse than a maggot.”
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