Election 2024 Part III: Out with the old!

[Zardnaar]

We're getting to the point where there isn't any space in the polling numbers for both candidates to "outperform". In 2020, RCP's final pre-election average was Biden 51.2% and Trump 44.0%. That left 4.8% of space for both candidates to outperform, which they did, Biden by 0.2% and Trump by 2.9%. Some of the polls coming out recently are going 51-49% and 52-48% and similar, leaving little or no room for both candidates to outperform.

That said, 538 currently has Harris up 2.9% at 48.6% and Trump at 45.7%. That leaves a healthy 5.7% margin for both to outperform the polls. If Trump matches his 2.5% outperformance in 2016 and Harris does your predicted 2.6% outperformance she ends up with 51.2% and Trump ends up with 48.2%, leaving 0.4% for other candidates and giving Harris a 3.0% percent edge over Trump, which coincidentally, was the magic number @Zardnaar IIRC was hypothesizing earlier.

Wasn't my theory but old politics thing I read 2020ish iirc.

Basically Democrats at 3% lead or higher will overcome EC, gerrymandering etc.

Mostly I'm looking at NC, Georgia, Pennsylvania and keep an eye on Florida and Texas.

 

[EvaDK]

I was thinking today about Trump's age and the likelihood of him dying in office if he wins in November. That probability is not low. Imagine if Vance became president in 2026. Imagine Vance as president ever.

I wouldn't trust Vance to run a lemonade stand by the roadside.

It speaks volumes that it was essentially Don Jr. and Eric who picked him.

 

[choxorn]

There is no "deep state".

And if there was, why would they waste their time... lightly burning someone who's already doing a fine job of crashing and burning themselves?

 

[Samson]

The other side is actually the murder fringe.

Kyle Rittenhouse texts pledging to ‘murder’ shoplifters disillusion his ex-spokesperson

A former spokesperson for Kyle Rittenhouse says he became disillusioned with his ex-client after learning that he had sent text messages pledging to “£$%&*£$ murder” shoplifters outside a pharmacy before later shooting two people to death during racial justice protests in Wisconsin in 2020.

 

[Farm Boy]

Ten thousand a year.

Harder to self insert in the story that way tho.

 

[Birdjaguar]

I wouldn't trust Vance to run a lemonade stand by the roadside.

It speaks volumes that it was essentially Don Jr. and Eric who picked him.

Tweedle Dumb and Tweedle Dee choosing a president.

 

[Voidwalkin]

Mostly I'm looking at NC, Georgia, Pennsylvania and keep an eye on Florida and Texas.

NC and GA, I'd still bet on Trump. I think dems have overperformed in both and Republicans have underperformed. R's should fire their party chiefs there, Dems should promote theirs. The actual area itself is more favorable to Republicans, though, and as national campaign spending increases, it'll tip more to Trump than Harris.

I think the blue wall is going to hold. It's going to prove decisive. Trump gets AZ, GA and NC, Harris wins with the Midwest and NV.

PA is looking like the weakest link in that chain, which is unfortunate, given its importance. WI and MI are locks imo. I don't think concerns over MI about Bidens Gaza policy are gonna prove consequential to the end result(somewhat predictably).

There'll be some second guessing if she loses PA about Walz/Shapiro. Walz is great nationally, but this thing may really well come down to 30k votes in Philly and Pittsburgh suburbs. I think she wins, but it's so wobbly that something like a campaign gaffe could actually tip it; Trump did with Haiti, but possibility for more gaffes from both campaigns exists.

 

[aelf]

Ten thousand a year.

Harder to self insert in the story that way tho.

That the number of gun deaths in the US a year? It looks too low.

 

[Voidwalkin]

That the number of gun deaths in the US a year? It looks too low.

Last number I saw was about 50k.

Slightly more than half are those who used guns to take their own lives.

 

[Joij21]

There is no "deep state".

Korean War? Vietnam War? Panama Invasion? Grenada Invasion? Columbian Contras? Support for Pinochet? Support for Peron? CIA testing LSD on an unsuspecting Canadian town? Cuban Missile Crisis backup plan by the CIA to stage a false flag terror attack on it's own civilians? Congo Crisis?

?????????????????

 

[Birdjaguar]

Korean War? Vietnam War? Panama Invasion? Grenada Invasion? Columbian Contras? Support for Pinochet? Support for Peron? CIA testing LSD on an unsuspecting Canadian town? Cuban Missile Crisis backup plan by the CIA to stage a false flag terror attack on it's own civilians? Congo Crisis?

?????????????????

All of those were initiated by elected administrations. Are you saying that the CIA is the deep state?

 

[Ajidica]

Congo Crisis?

As the Congo Crisis of the early 60s is a topic of particular interest to me, I'm curious as to what US activities in the Congo you would characterize as being part of the "deep state". Lumumba is the the example most commonly brought up, but I'd be hard pressed to call it a 'deep state' given how much Eisenhower despised Lumumba and his fixation on Lumumba as an "African Castro".

 

[Gori the Grey]

The phrase "deep state" has two meanings:
1) government agencies (like CIA) that persist despite change in administration
2) some Democratic-leaning cabal in those agencies that is hostile to Republicans, or at least Trump.

Right-wing commentary slides between them, using the indubitable existence of the one as proof of the dubious existence of the other.

 

[Voidwalkin]

As the Congo Crisis of the early 60s is a topic of particular interest to me, I'm curious as to what US activities in the Congo you would characterize as being part of the "deep state". Lumumba is the the example most commonly brought up, but I'd be hard pressed to call it a 'deep state' given how much Eisenhower despised Lumumba and his fixation on Lumumba as an "African Castro".

That group became the deep state when Trump was elected. The orthodox foreign policy school that staffs the majority of these sorts of institutions were not on board with any of Trump's anti-Atlanticist moves.

They'd have hated him anyway, because he runs afoul of most of their social protocols on what constitutes decency, and that he generally seems like a belligerent guy by personality, but I do think most government employees were deeply skeptical particularly of his foreign policy from the start.

 

[Birdjaguar]

Why are so many GOP candidates and politicians liars, cheaters and crooks?

Childless GOP Candidate Posed With Friend's Wife And Kids For Campaign Video: NYT​

Derrick Anderson is running for office in Virginia. He's using a video of himself posing with a family for his campaign. The family isn't his.

Childless GOP Candidate Posed With Friend's Wife And Kids For Campaign Video: NYT

Derrick Anderson is running for office in Virginia. He's using a video of himself posing with a family for his campaign. The family isn't his.

www.huffpost.com

 

[Core Imposter]

The phrase "deep state" has two meanings:
1) government agencies (like CIA) that persist despite change in administration
2) some Democratic-leaning cabal in those agencies that is hostile to Republicans, or at least Trump.

Right-wing commentary slides between them, using the indubitable existence of the one as proof of the dubious existence of the other.

My definition of deep state is similar to the "conspiracy of the commons" that I have spoken of before. It is not five shadowy figures in a smoke-filled room, although those kinds of groups certainly exist, but rather the collective will of an organism reacting in what it perceives as its "best interest". The organism is the mass of humanity that depends on the government for sustenance, like a parasite, and when you consider the way modern economies are structured, the organism includes the majority of our population. Anything that is considered a danger is resisted, Trump is emblematic of that, but in these times any Republican, conservative, traditional value, religion, history, institution, white person, heterosexual male, and founding ideas such as speech and liberty, and principals such as merit and property ownership are all things that are under siege or direct attack as the organism is in the process of transmogrification. This process is best understood as compared to the rise of communism in the early 20th century in Europe.

The full power and scope of this movement will not break out until the collapse of the "magic monetary" polices of the US and other western nations occurs. likely in the next round of global war. At which point it will quickly and totally seize the levers of power. All liberties will then vanish, and the "party" will thoroughly redwash US history and provide citizens with correct thought, simply on a universal scale of the current processes wherein Democratics don't know what they think until they receive their daily talking points.

There will be blood. Although resistance is futile, there will be blood.

Another apt analogy would be to consider this evolving organism as a human body and Trump as a virus with the Deep State playing the role of the immune system mobilizing to eject the perceived threat by any means necessary. As a child of American liberty, Trump is oblivious to the degree to which the body politic has been "vaccinated" and trained to eject vestigial traces of the former order, which "vaccination", actually mass indoctrination, was largely carried out in the nation's universities in the 20th century. In hoping to Make America Great Again, Trump instinctively understands that something horrible has happened to our country but fails to understand the reality and finality of the death of the Republic, murdered by the democracy of the mob.

Salvation is of the Lord. He is our only refuge.
Moderator Action: Warned for inappropriate content. No bloody fantasies here please. The_J

 

[Birdjaguar]

The full power and scope of this movement will not break out until the collapse of the "magic monetary" polices of the US and other western nations occurs. likely in the next round of global war. At which point it will quickly and totally seize the levers of power. All liberties will then vanish, and the "party" will thoroughly redwash US history and provide citizens with correct thought, simply on a universal scale of the current processes wherein Democratics don't know what they think until they receive their daily talking points.

There will be blood. Although resistance is futile, there will be blood.

Aha, so as soon as Trump is elected.

 

[Core Imposter]

Aha, so as soon as Trump is elected.

It could happen that way. Trump would be a suitable scapegoat.

But the goat, on which the lot fell to be the scapegoat, shall be presented alive before the Lord, to make an atonement with him, and to let him go for a scapegoat into the wilderness.

Lev. 16:10

 

[Angst]

My definition of deep state is similar to the "conspiracy of the commons" that I have spoken of before. It is not five shadowy figures in a smoke-filled room, although those kinds of groups certainly exist, but rather the collective will of an organism reacting in what it perceives as its "best interest". The organism is the mass of humanity that depends on the government for sustenance, like a parasite, and when you consider the way modern economies are structured, the organism includes the majority of our population. Anything that is considered a danger is resisted, Trump is emblematic of that, but in these times any Republican, conservative, traditional value, religion, history, institution, white person, heterosexual male, and founding ideas such as speech and liberty, and principals such as merit and property ownership are all things that are under siege or direct attack as the organism is in the process of transmogrification. This process is best understood as compared to the rise of communism in the early 20th century in Europe.

The full power and scope of this movement will not break out until the collapse of the "magic monetary" polices of the US and other western nations occurs. likely in the next round of global war. At which point it will quickly and totally seize the levers of power. All liberties will then vanish, and the "party" will thoroughly redwash US history and provide citizens with correct thought, simply on a universal scale of the current processes wherein Democratics don't know what they think until they receive their daily talking points.

There will be blood. Although resistance is futile, there will be blood.

Another apt analogy would be to consider this evolving organism as a human body and Trump as a virus with the Deep State playing the role of the immune system mobilizing to eject the perceived threat by any means necessary. As a child of American liberty, Trump is oblivious to the degree to which the body politic has been "vaccinated" and trained to eject vestigial traces of the former order, which "vaccination", actually mass indoctrination, was largely carried out in the nation's universities in the 20th century. In hoping to Make America Great Again, Trump instinctively understands that something horrible has happened to our country but fails to understand the reality and finality of the death of the Republic, murdered by the democracy of the mob.

Salvation is of the Lord. He is our only refuge.

none of this exists

 

[Ajidica]

My definition of deep state is similar to the "conspiracy of the commons" that I have spoken of before. It is not five shadowy figures in a smoke-filled room, although those kinds of groups certainly exist, but rather the collective will of an organism reacting in what it perceives as its "best interest". The organism is the mass of humanity that depends on the government for sustenance, like a parasite, and when you consider the way modern economies are structured, the organism includes the majority of our population. Anything that is considered a danger is resisted, Trump is emblematic of that, but in these times any Republican, conservative, traditional value, religion, history, institution, white person, heterosexual male, and founding ideas such as speech and liberty, and principals such as merit and property ownership are all things that are under siege or direct attack as the organism is in the process of transmogrification. This process is best understood as compared to the rise of communism in the early 20th century in Europe.

The full power and scope of this movement will not break out until the collapse of the "magic monetary" polices of the US and other western nations occurs. likely in the next round of global war. At which point it will quickly and totally seize the levers of power. All liberties will then vanish, and the "party" will thoroughly redwash US history and provide citizens with correct thought, simply on a universal scale of the current processes wherein Democratics don't know what they think until they receive their daily talking points.

There will be blood. Although resistance is futile, there will be blood.

Another apt analogy would be to consider this evolving organism as a human body and Trump as a virus with the Deep State playing the role of the immune system mobilizing to eject the perceived threat by any means necessary. As a child of American liberty, Trump is oblivious to the degree to which the body politic has been "vaccinated" and trained to eject vestigial traces of the former order, which "vaccination", actually mass indoctrination, was largely carried out in the nation's universities in the 20th century. In hoping to Make America Great Again, Trump instinctively understands that something horrible has happened to our country but fails to understand the reality and finality of the death of the Republic, murdered by the democracy of the mob.

Salvation is of the Lord. He is our only refuge.

I have no idea what I should make of this, beyond the growing sentiment we should order your lunch from the pharmacy.