Election 2024 Part III: Out with the old!

[Fippy]

The world needs Kamala..come on America.
What else can i say

 

[Sommerswerd]

Trump's losing the popular vote pretty much no matter what. Popular vote doesn't matter. 3% apparently is the magic number Harris needs to carry the popular vote.

That's unclear, if by that you mean that 3% popular vote is the magic number that means the Democrat likely wins in the electoral college. We know that Hillary soundly lost in 2016 while winning the popular vote by 2.1% and Obama won the electoral college in 2012 convincingly, winning the popular vote by 3.9%. So it would seem that the sweet spot is above 2.1%, but less than 3.9%. 538 has Harris up currently by 2.7% and RCP has her up by 2%. That 2% lead is probably not good enough, but the 2.7% might be enough.

More importantly, 538 has Harris ahead in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Nevada. If that holds, Harris has a good shot at winning. Trump is leading currently in Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina, but winning all 3 of those (plus the states where he is comfortably ahead) will not be enough for him to win.

Whoever carries Pennsylvania will likely win imho assuming no supreme court shenanigans. IMHO of course. If Trump loses Pennsylvania he probably loses elsewhere so call it for Harris on Election night of she carries Pennsylvania.

There is almost no chance that Pennsylvania will be called on election night, sadly, so we are likely in for a long, stressful election week, again.

 

[KMRblue1027]

If Harris over performs her polls then we'll know on election night as IIRC NC counts absentee ballots in advance. Trump basically cannot win without it, but if polls are accurate then we won't know til likely Thursday morning.

 

[Gori the Grey]

The last two comments are both true. We may know (from overperforming) that she's going to win and not know (from PA not being called) that she has won.

GA is also likely not to be called on election night (and perhaps not for long after), because of all of the crazy rules the election board has been devising.

But if she were to carry WI, MI and NC, then even so little as NV or (my surprise pick) IA would put her over the top (let alone FL, OH or TX), and would let networks make the call on election night--even with, say, AZ going his way and PA and GA still out. (though AZ won't go his way if IA goes to Harris).

And an election night call would make all of his (predictable) shenanigans a real uphill climb.

 

[JollyRoger]

JD Vance has been such a disappointment that Trump is now calling him Eric

 

[Voidwalkin]

I wonder if lying has become more commonplace in American society. Tactical insincerity I believe is up, though it's not like such things are ever realistically measured.

Polls are less reliable if people don't accurately self-report.

 

[Sommerswerd]

The last two comments are both true. We may know (from overperforming) that she's going to win and not know (from PA not being called) that she has won.

GA is also likely not to be called on election night (and perhaps not for long after), because of all of the crazy rules the election board has been devising.

But if she were to carry WI, MI and NC, then even so little as NV or (my surprise pick) IA would put her over the top (let alone FL, OH or TX), and would let networks make the call on election night--even with, say, AZ going his way and PA and GA still out. (though AZ won't go his way if IA goes to Harris).

And an election night call would make all of his (predictable) shenanigans a real uphill climb.

I'm holding out hope for Harris winning a state election night that is a shocker, like Iowa, Ohio, South Carolina, Texas or Florida, that allows the networks to call the election in her favor without waiting for Pennsylvania or Georgia. On 538 Iowa was polling 10-12% in favor of Trump when Biden was the opponent. That's down to 4% since Harris took over. On 538 Ohio is polling really well for Trump at 9%, but 270toWin (another polling aggregator site with a nice interactive map) still has Ohio as only leaning Trump as opposed to solid red. South Carolina shows as solid red on that same site, but South Caralina is also about 30% black, one of the highest in the nation, so that's an x-factor, depending on turnout. 270 has Florida and Texas both in the "lean Republican category", with 538 having them at 4% and 6% Trump respectively. So Harris would have to overperform to snag either of those.

 

[Takhisis]

Two images. Coincidence? You decide
View attachment 704429View attachment 704428

Announcer: ‘you have taken the lead’.

People in their 40s, particularly their early 40s are generally considered Millennials.

OI! Careful with the counting there.

 

[JollyRoger]

NORTH CAROLINA (The Borowitz Report)—In an official statement released on Tuesday, the entire staff of the pornographic website Nude Africa has resigned in order to distance themselves from Lt. Governor Mark Robinson.

“We have long been proud of our association with Nude Africa,” the statement read. “Unfortunately, Mr. Robinson’s posts on the website have tarnished Nude Africa’s good name.”

In order to “restore the stellar reputation of Nude Africa,” the ex-staffers urged the porn site’s proprietors to “demand that Mr. Robinson drop out as a commenter on Nude Africa’s message boards at once.”

Asked about the controversy, Sen. JD Vance said, “Before I comment, I need to spend a few more days looking at Nude Africa.”

https://www.borowitzreport.com/p/staff-of-nude-africa-porn-site-quit

 

[Takhisis]

The what now.

 

[Gori the Grey]

When you tarnish a porn site's good name, it's time to rethink your life choices.

 

[Birdjaguar]

If Trump loses NC, it will be because of Robinson. Trump only endorses the best of the best!

 

[Lexicus]

If Trump loses NC, it will be because of Robinson. Trump only endorses the best of the best!

I don't think this is gonna happen, though. I mean, idk if Trump is gonna win NC (I think that's probably the way to bet, but idk) but I don't think Robinson will drag him down significantly.

 

[Gori the Grey]

Except just as a stimulus to people on the left to get themselves out to vote: "Look at the wretches we get otherwise." And because it's plural, it has more of a motivating force.

Don't know how to convert that to numbers, of course.

 

[Lexicus]

Except just as a stimulus to people on the left to get themselves out to vote: "Look at the wretches we get otherwise." And because it's plural, it has more of a motivating force.

Don't know how to convert that to numbers, of course.

That would be boosting Kamala rather than dragging Trump down, though. Pedantic difference but still different. It is possible that Robinson boosts D turnout, but I am not sure you'll see any effect from Robinson above the effect you already get from Trump.

 

[Gori the Grey]

Well, yeah, with that more precise phrasing, no, Robinson won't drag Trump down; Trump voters are going to vote for Trump, regardless of anything else.

 

[Birdjaguar]

Robinson just makes the GOP in NC look even more terrible than before. A Harris win could from from Trump "going down" or Harris "going up". Either is fine with me.

Down ballot races might well be affected too.

 

[SemiLazyGamer]

Journalist banned from Twitter for posting the Iranian stolen Trump campaign dossier on Substack.

Been hearing that Twitter won't let links be posted either.

https://thehill.com/policy/technology/4901990-journalist-suspended-x-vance-hack/

Tangental, Hurricane Helene has become a major hurricane and is still intensifying as it approaches the Florida Big Bend area.

 

[danjuno]

Turnout matters more than the tiny number of actual swing voters in the age of hyper-partisanship.

 

[Voidwalkin]

Turnout matters more than the tiny number of actual swing voters in the age of hyper-partisanship.

It is disputable if there's much you can do to reasonably increase turnout this late. At this point the candidates have known positions on the animating turnout issues.

At a certain time in the season swing voters become the more achievable target.