Election 2024 Part III: Out with the old!

[Joij21]

I am of two minds of this; one, we just saw price increases do annoy people even if unemployment is at historic lows. But two, we are finally reaching a point where economic reality is becoming detached too, like everything else. Conservative voters are leading the way here, but everybody will get there eventually. The economy as the last thing voters actually respond to based on real conditions being lost will be interesting.

The inflated prices never went down inflation was controlled by causing it to disinflate not deflate. Disinflation is when you merely slow down the rate of inflation back down to a stable 2%-3% annual price increase per year, not reverse all the previous inflation over the past years before it. Only deflation does this but is however correspondence to a massive dip in GDP, central banks obviously don't want to do that so they only go so far as to disinflate rather than deflate.

However the American people are not well economically literate, so they feel entitled to believe that disinflation ought to be the same as DEflation. In other words they believe it is central banks duty to cause prices to crash and return back to the good old days and remain forever stagnant and affordable. Basically they want 2018/19 prices again.

 

[Ajidica]

It was simply a defeat so comprehensive that the party changed in response.

Its previous consensus wouldn't win anymore, Bush's invasions were too much. The Republican party had the benefit of reforming its appeal and sharpening its knives against a Democrat party that was, as it happened, propping up Wall St as it foreclosed on Main St. That dynamic hasn't changed, so the present iteration of knife still works.

At the risk of opening up old wounds, the GOP and conservative Democrats - many of them rural democrats - wouldn't give the mainstream Democrats and Obama the votes to "save Main St".
Have you ever met a Democrat that doesn't like federal spending going to their district, especially during a catastrophic recession?

 

[Farm Boy]

I haven't ever met a Republican that doesn't like federal spending going to their district.

 

[Strong Reaction]

My boy Luke Thomas podcaster, former Marine and current MMA "journalist" answers the question

Why did the Democrats lose and what lessons cant they take?


Question starts at 1:02:50 and is around 16 minutes long. Please don't watch the whole show.

Spoiler inappropriate language warning :

Loog also on The Assignment with Audie Cornish
time stamp at around 28:37 of the podcast

The UFC is Trump's Not-So-Secret Weapon - The Assignment with Audie Cornish - Podcast on CNN Audio

This week, Audie steps into the cage, literally, to learn why mixed martial arts is America's latest political battleground. As young men and women drift further apart politically, mixed martial arts has proven fertile ground for a changed GOP looking for fresh supporters. Retired Ultimate...

www.cnn.com

 

[Sommerswerd]

Yes, Democrats'd've known that if they actually spoke to Latinos or knew where Latin America was on the map.

So you're confirming it. That's important information. I wonder if the Democrats strategists are gathering this and deciding how to act on it going forward.

McCain hit the hope and change buzzsaw so hard the results remind me a little of Goldwater. The birtherism was the first substantial entry of 45/47 to the scene.

Ironic that McCain seems like such a quaint and hopeful version of a Republican POTUS nowadays...

It was simply a defeat so comprehensive that the party changed in response.

I think that the Democrats strategic response will be to move closer to Republicans, at least what they perceive to be Republicans. We may be on the verge of a split party emerging as Democrats break up into a moderate party and a leftist party.

I think that Democrats are going to look at abandoning courting some core constituencies... black voters for example. Black voters are staunchly loyal to the Democrats, but more and more it seems like black voters are the only ones who respond to appeals to racial/ethnic issues in terms of political/voting choices. Asian and Latino voters seem to no longer care, and/or seem to be willing to do what black voters did for years, which is just hold-their-nose/grit-their-teeth and vote for whichever party/candidate they thought gave them the best chance, and ignore racist jokes/tropes/themes etc.

Democrats focusing on Black voters as "the base" may be getting reconsidered, not because Black voters haven't been a reliable voting base, but because the numbers aren't significant enough. Black people are 12% of the population. Black voters supported Harris heavily, and she lost regardless. Democrats focusing on courting black voters may be alienating everyone who isn't black. And its not like Democrats have offered/done much more for black voters than lip service, its just that even the lip service may have become a net loss. Maybe there is an opportunity for black voters to increase party competition for their votes by becoming less race focused and focused on specific policies. Or maybe racial demographics are becoming obsolete in terms of POTUS election results.

I am spitballing here, but I'm guessing someone in the Democratic party strategy room is raising some of the same points I am. As always, I'd love to hear thoughts.

 

[Zardnaar]

So you're confirming it. That's important information. I wonder if the Democrats strategists are gathering this and deciding how to act on it going forward.

Ironic that McCain seems like such a quaint and hopeful version of a Republican POTUS nowadays...

I think that the Democrats strategic response will be to move closer to Republicans, at least what they perceive to be Republicans. We may be on the verge of a split party emerging as Democrats break up into a moderate party and a leftist party.

I think that Democrats are going to look at abandoning courting some core constituencies... black voters for example. Black voters are staunchly loyal to the Democrats, but more and more it seems like black voters are the only ones who respond to appeals to racial/ethnic issues in terms of political/voting choices. Asian and Latino voters seem to no longer care, and/or seem to be willing to do what black voters did for years, which is just hold-their-nose/grit-their-teeth and vote for whichever party/candidate they thought gave them the best chance, and ignore racist jokes/tropes/themes etc.

Democrats focusing on Black voters as "the base" may be getting reconsidered, not because Black voters haven't been a reliable voting base, but because the numbers aren't significant enough. Black people are 12% of the population. Black voters supported Harris heavily, and she lost regardless. Democrats focusing on courting black voters may be alienating everyone who isn't black. And its not like Democrats have offered/done much more for black voters than lip service, its just that even the lip service may have become a net loss. Maybe there is an opportunity for black voters to increase party competition for their votes by becoming less race focused and focused on specific policies. Or maybe racial demographics are becoming obsolete in terms of POTUS election results.

I am spitballing here, but I'm guessing someone in the Democratic party strategy room is raising some of the same points I am. As always, I'd love to hear thoughts.

Think they will have to wind back identity politics. And dumb stuff like LatinX. If you're not a raging chud but if you're talking about xyz what do I get?

Same with white privilege that's just toxic politically when most of the electorate is white.

Doesn't mean lurch right on dumping on blacks or whatever. Might have to do that on illegal immigrants looking at numbers in places like NYC.

They kind of assume minorities will automatically swing their way
Beats me why.

No men lol.
https://democrats.org/who-we-are/who-we-serve/

 

[Farm Boy]

abandoning courting some core constituencies

Country hip hop fusion, or whatever it's actually called, seems hot.

Music is more honest than most things. At least as feelings go.

I wonder at shaboozy's bar song dominating the summer. Pay attention to the lead in, no men lol? Not sure, but it's the fastest growing political divide, and one of the strongest impulses men usually have is to be appealing to women, so something is going on, just not sure what.

But then again, maybe the algorithms are wagging the dog. The American public doesn't recenter every Sunday anymore.

Do they for football still?

 

[Strong Reaction]

Think they will have to wind back identity politics. And dumb stuff like LatinX.

Well now that you mention it. Not the sole reason why they lost a number of the Latino vote but you get the idea.

Latinx Awareness Has Doubled Among U.S. Hispanics Since 2019, but Only 4% Use It​

Latinx Awareness Has Doubled Among U.S. Hispanics Since 2019, but Only 4% Use It

Three-quarters of Hispanics who have heard of the term Latinx say it should not be used to describe the Hispanic or Latino population.

www.pewresearch.org

 

[Kaitzilla]

They are calling 2024 the Graveyard of Incumbents.

Commentary: Democrats join 2024’s global graveyard of incumbents

Governments across the world are struggling in this period of economic and geopolitical turmoil, writes the Financial Times' John Burn-Murdoch.

www.channelnewsasia.com

The incumbents in every single one of the 10 major countries that have been tracked by the ParlGov global research project and held national elections in 2024 were given a kicking by voters.

This is the first time this has ever happened in almost 120 years of records.

 

[Narz]

Think they will have to wind back identity politics. And dumb stuff like LatinX. If you're not a raging chud but if you're talking about xyz what do I get?

Same with white privilege that's just toxic politically when most of the electorate is white.

Doesn't mean lurch right on dumping on blacks or whatever. Might have to do that on illegal immigrants looking at numbers in places like NYC.

They kind of assume minorities will automatically swing their way
Beats me why.

No men lol.
https://democrats.org/who-we-are/who-we-serve/

They don't want to win. They raise so much money with this end of the world campaigning why would they want it to end?

 

[Zardnaar]

Well now that you mention it. Not the sole reason why they lost a number of the Latino vote but you get the idea.

Latinx Awareness Has Doubled Among U.S. Hispanics Since 2019, but Only 4% Use It​

Latinx Awareness Has Doubled Among U.S. Hispanics Since 2019, but Only 4% Use It

Three-quarters of Hispanics who have heard of the term Latinx say it should not be used to describe the Hispanic or Latino population.

www.pewresearch.org

I have no issue with people using latinx to describe themselves.

More trying to force others to use it.

 

[Akka]

Well now that you mention it. Not the sole reason why they lost a number of the Latino vote but you get the idea.

Latinx Awareness Has Doubled Among U.S. Hispanics Since 2019, but Only 4% Use It​

Latinx Awareness Has Doubled Among U.S. Hispanics Since 2019, but Only 4% Use It

Three-quarters of Hispanics who have heard of the term Latinx say it should not be used to describe the Hispanic or Latino population.

www.pewresearch.org

Sometimes, the jokes write themselves.
It's SO emblematic...

 

[Zardnaar]

Sometimes, the jokes write themselves.
It's SO emblematic...

Think we might be in agreement there.

Next Democrat contender should probably be.

Youngish. 40s or 50s.

White male (face it it's America).

Economically progressive, socially moderate

Illegal immigrants. They don't vote who cares? Donor class does for obvious reasons.

Bury this culture war crap where it belongs. Outside of sapphire blue universities it doesn't resonate. Trump won convincingly. Popular vote as well.

Voters told you what they were concerned about. Democrats ignored them.

 

[Narz]

Think we might be in agreement there.

Next Democrat contender should probably be.

Youngish. 40s or 50s.

White male (face it it's America).

Economically progressive, socially moderate

Illegal immigrants. They don't vote who cares? Donor class does for obvious reasons.

Bury this culture war crap where it belongs. Outside of sapphire blue universities it doesn't resonate. Trump won convincingly. Popular vote as well.

Voters told you what they were concerned about. Democrats ignored them.

Also

1. Personality
2. Unapologetic
3. Willing to smooze with the people, go on podcasts, shoot the **** with anyone & everyone
4. Most importantly : SOMEONE WHO WON A PRIMARY

If economy goes in the tank in next four years it'll be a lot easier, this embarrassment (losing this badly to Trump) will hopefully be a lesson but again, it does strike me that they don't really want to win.

 

[Samson]

I have no issue with people using latinx to describe themselves.

More trying to force others to use it.

Can you give any examples of what you mean?

 

[Gorbles]

"people saying you should use the word on social media is like forcing people at gunpoint to use it"

Or something like that. As a bunch of other conservative posters nod along.

 

[EnglishEdward]

Democrats focusing on courting black voters may be alienating everyone who isn't black.

Quite

Harris’ 2024 campaign promises: A running list

Updated with additional promises, Oct. 14, 2024. Presidential campaigns usually plan their policy agendas months, or yea

www.politifact.com

Provide 1 million loans to Black entrepreneurs, fully forgivable up to $20,000

This promise is part of Harris’ "Opportunity Agenda for Black Men." Although Harris had already
proposed subsidies for business startups more generally, she said Black entrepreneurs are often likelier
to be denied credit than their white counterparts, even when they have equivalent credit scores.

This seems like a vote loser: uniting traditional whites with Hispanic and Asian Americans.

 

[Farm Boy]

"people saying you should use the word on social media is like forcing people at gunpoint to use it"

Or something like that. As a bunch of other conservative posters nod along.

I'm not sure who is nodding to that?

 

[Zardnaar]

Can you give any examples of what you mean?

I've seen people lecture others online very using it. My friends in Houston don't (they're Mexican voted blue).

If someone wants to use it to describe themselves fair enough.

Speak like a normal person though.

 

[Gorbles]

I'm not sure who is nodding to that?

Oh, not you. But definitely a couple of others.

I've seen people lecture others online very using it. My friends in Houston don't (they're Mexican voted blue).

If someone wants to use it to describe themselves fair enough.

Speak like a normal person though.

We've gone from "forcing others to use it" (citation needed) to "speak like a normal person" (for whatever the New Zealander thinks is normal).

Nice goalposts.