Future of Belgium

[madviking]

With the Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie picking a plurality of the seats in Belgian parliament, what does the future hold for Belgium? Will the peaceful secession movement be successful? Or will Belgium remain one country?

Consider the next five or so years for the poll.

 

[warpus]

Here's a map, just cause I like maps

What would the capital of Wallonia be?

 

[madviking]

Here's a map, just cause I like maps

What would the capital of Wallonia be?

Here's another map with languages.

As for the capital, it could be Mons? Liege?

 

[Cato the Elder]

I put "uncertain at this point", but that was before I read your last sentence. My country's future is indeed uncertain at this moment in time.. the Flemish secessionist movement is indeed gaining steam but it all depends on how this next government works.

In the next 5 years however, secession will not take place. The N-VA has even literally stated that they are not planning to initiate anything of the sort in this government, and considering something so drastic takes quite a while to come into form, especially in a country so in love with beurocracy like mine, I don't see it happening, if ever, until perhaps the late 20s, early 30s.

Also, Warpus, the capital of Wallonia, if independent from Brussels, would probably be Namur; this is where the Walloon regional parliament is already located and is pretty much the epicentre of Walloon politics.

 

[Oerdin]

Flanders should be annex by the Netherlands.

 

[Cato the Elder]

Flanders should be annex by the Netherlands.

There's more difference between the two than you'd expect. It's kind of like the Americans and the Canadians.. there's the same language and their cultures are more like one another's than anyone else's, but when it comes down to it there are still inherently noticeable differences between the two.

Forcibly making the Dutchies part of the Greater Belgian Empire, however, is a different case entirely.

 

[Earthling]

It is the most disgusting word in the Universe and should be wiped from the maps.

 

[Bill3000]

There's more difference between the two than you'd expect. It's kind of like the Americans and the Canadians.. there's the same language and their cultures are more like one another's than anyone else's, but when it comes down to it there are still inherently noticeable differences between the two.

As Canada should be annexed into the United States, I don't see the relevance of your point.

 

[Perfection]

As Canada should be annexed into the United States, I don't see the relevance of your point.

Even the French part?

 

[warpus]

What would the Wallonians have to gain from a split? The way I see it (and I'm pretty uninformed, probably), they would be landlocked, have a small capital (Namur's population is 100,000), and lose the EU de facto capital..

 

[amadeus]

They'd gain annexation by France.

 

[Mad Man]

The country should be split in four with Brussels becoming a City sate and the German Community becoming West Germany.

 

[Jan H]

In the next 5 years however, secession will not take place. The N-VA has even literally stated that they are not planning to initiate anything of the sort in this government, and considering something so drastic takes quite a while to come into form, especially in a country so in love with beurocracy like mine, I don't see it happening, if ever, until perhaps the late 20s, early 30s.

Also, Warpus, the capital of Wallonia, if independent from Brussels, would probably be Namur; this is where the Walloon regional parliament is already located and is pretty much the epicentre of Walloon politics.

Cato summed it up perfectly.

for those not following the news: Bart De Wever, party leader of the N-VA has been named "informateur" by the king, meaning that he will start talks with the different parties, to see which coalitions are possible. If this goes well, Elio Di Rupo, party leader of the francophone socialists (PS) could then after a couple of weeks become "formateur" to lead the real coalition negotiations and form a government by the end of august/beginning of september.

Based on statements made by Bart De Wever and Elio Di Rupo, the most likely coalition seems to be a 7-party coalition consisting of the N-VA, both christian-democrat parties (CD&V and CDH), both socialist parties (PS and SP.A) and both green parties (Groen! and Ecolo). That coalition would have a very large majority (more than 100 seats out of 150), which is needed for the nacessary state reforms.

If they can manage to do this, the political situation should be stabilized at least until the next elections in 2014.

 

[Lillefix]

Seven parties? I hope the leaders are good at making compromises.

 

[Jan H]

Seven parties? I hope the leaders are good at making compromises.

We did have a six party coalition before (the first Verhofstadt government), so it isn't impossible.
Fewer than 7 would be possible too (although the minimum is 4), but then they wouldn't have a 2/3 majority, which is necessary for constitutional reforms.

There are currently 12 parties in the Federal parlement (7 Flemish, 5 Francophone). The biggest party, the Flemish N-VA had 17.4% of the national vote...

 

[Cato the Elder]

Seven parties? I hope the leaders are good at making compromises.

Keep in mind that we use regional parties in these federal elections. The Flemish socialists, christian-democrats, and greens and their Walloon counterparts are all close to each other. The Flemish nationalists, bar their Flemish nationalism, are for the rest pretty close to the Flemish christian-democrats.

So it's closer to a 3½-party government.. still a lot but not quite as unfeasible as thought before.

 

[Pangur Bán]

It'd be best just to partition it between France and the Netherlands. That'd make most sense, even if it is one of the least likely outcomes.

 

[Stapel]

First of all, the Belgian federation has three states: Flanders, Wallonia and Brussels.

It is a simple political fact that, since 1960's, Belgium has slowly grown towards a country that can be divided easier, with every constitutional reform. If one puts sentiments aside, the only logical conclusion is that Belgium will one day seize to exist. Over the years, more and more power (and money) has shifted from the federal government to the state governments. This is a one-way road!

The most probable reform for the next government, will be the BHV-question (a fairly monstruous electionial district problem). And possibly some more power to the state governments. And then Belgium is once more a step closer to seperation.

In the end, there will be three new countries: The Republic Flanders, the City state of Brussels and Wallonia. I can see how Wallonia becomes a French Region, with its 5 provinces becoming departments. However, The Flemmish joining the Kingdom of the Netherlands seems a myth to me.


The only logical thing to do is to merge Belgian Limburg (the most backward area of Flanders) with Dutch Limburg (the most backward part of the Netherlands) and to make it a brand new Bundesland .

 

[Jan H]

The only logical thing to do is to merge Belgian Limburg (the most backward area of Flanders) with Dutch Limburg (the most backward part of the Netherlands) and to make it a brand new Bundesland .

oi!

I wouldn't be opposed though to Dutch-Limburg and possibly even Noord-Brabant joining the new country of Flanders

Oh, and if Limburg was to become independent, you may keep Geert Wilders...

 

[Stapel]

oi!

I got this joke form a guy from East Flanders.

I wouldn't be opposed though to Dutch-Limburg and possibly even Noord-Brabant to join the new country of Flanders

Totally unrealistic off course, yet more realistic than the Flemmish provinces joining the Dutch Kingdom.

Oh, and if Limburg was to become independet, you may keep Geert Wilders...

No way! He comes with the package!