General Politics the second: But what is politics?

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Lexicus said:
@Sommerswerd The point isn't about flipping any district, the point is that the R vote in MTG's district depressed enough to flip the result of the statewide election from R to D.

Again, I am awaiting evidence of this assertion.
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I get that and I already looked it up. See above.

You can compare the towns in MTGs district (14th) below to the Senate maps I already posted. If anything, they got more red from 2020 to 2022.
Spoiler :
EDIT: I went back and compared the 2016 results to 2020 as well. MTG's district was just solidly red the whole time:
Spoiler :
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_Senate_election_in_Georgia

More importantly, the 2020 election, where Warnock (D) first won, had 749,422 more votes cast total than 2016... so way higher turnout overall. Also, Loeffler's (R) runoff total in 2020 was 2,195,841, which was higher than Isackson's (R) winning total of 2,135,806 in 2016. So decreased Republican turnout in 2020 was not the reason for the loss of the seat. Also, Warnock (D) and Walker (R) both got significantly less votes in 2022 than the Democrat (Warnock) and Republican (Loeffler) got in the prior race respectively, both in the first round and even less in the runoff, so to the extent that there was decreased Republican turnout in 2022, it was matched by decreased Democratic turnout. it was just a lower turnout election overall.

Based on all that, I'm not convinced that Republicans in MTG's district being turned off by her made the difference in the GA Senate race.
 
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The link goes to a video where a GA election official is shown contradicting MTG's election lies. I see the connection to there being Republican officials in GA who reject MTG's election lies. I don't see the connection to depressed turnout among Republicans disaffected with MTG in MTGs district making the difference in the Senate race.

EDIT: OK, I watched the whole video (2:41). At the very end of the video, literally the very last sentence, the election official says that MTGs district is one of the districts in GA that was most affected in terms of election lies making them think that their votes didn't count. So the way I interpret that, is that the Republican voters in MTG's district believe her lies, so as a result, despite the fact that they supported the Republican, they did not think it was worth voting for the Republican, because they felt that their votes would not be counted, because of the lies MTG was telling them. So its not disgust with MTG and/or rejection of her that is depressing Republican turnout in her district. It is the belief in her and acceptance of her lies which is depressing turnout. But again, it isn't making any difference in the results of the election, or even in the end-results of her district.
 
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Seems like it mattered in a close race, in a tied Senate. Or at least it seems to have mattered to the person approximately most intimately acquainted with the details of the entire election. Turnout matters, and districts aren't statewide races, different metrics determine the winners, when we start butchering the whole thing up like a pig.
 
Looking at how red those counties are is irrelevant : if (extreme example for the sake of argument) the vote went from 10k R 5k D to 3k R 1K D it would look redder on the map yet would cost votes to the republican candidate.
 
Sommerswerd said:
More importantly, the 2020 election, where Warnock (D) first won, had 749,422 more votes cast total than 2016... so way higher turnout overall. Also, Loeffler's (R) runoff total in 2020 was 2,195,841, which was higher than Isackson's (R) winning total of 2,135,806 in 2016. So decreased Republican turnout in 2020 was not the reason for the loss of the seat. Also, Warnock (D) and Walker (R) both got significantly less votes in 2022 than the Democrat (Warnock) and Republican (Loeffler) got in the prior race respectively, both in the first round and even less in the runoff, so to the extent that there was decreased Republican turnout in 2022, it was matched by decreased Democratic turnout. it was just a lower turnout election overall.
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AdrienIer said:
Looking at how red those counties are is irrelevant : if (extreme example for the sake of argument) the vote went from 10k R 5k D to 3k R 1K D it would look redder on the map yet would cost votes to the republican candidate.
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I thought of this point too - the margin of victory may be irrelevant to the level of turnout, if the redness on the map is determined by the proportional margin of victory that's definitely true, if it's determined by the absolute margin of victory (number of votes the person won by) it's possibly true.

To establish that MTG district depressed turnout enough to flip the Senate seat you would need to do an analysis comparing all the districts in 2020 to 2022, establishing a statistically normal baseline change from 2020 to 2022, then showing that MTG's district was abnormally depressed turnout relative to that baseline, and then show that the absolute margin of victory in the Senate race(s) was small enough that the difference between the "normal" change and the MTG district change was sufficient to swing the election.

I'm certainly not doing all that. And of course, that by itself would not be positive proof that MTG's district swung the election. And even if we took it as such, @Sommerswerd 's point that the turnout-reduction could be because MTG's voters believe her lies about the election being rigged rather than because they don't like her would then have to be addressed somehow.
 
The Democrats still hold the majority leader position, not the minority leader position, at the end of the day.
 
Farm Boy said:
The Democrats still hold the majority leader position, not the minority leader position, at the end of the day.
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Yes, but at issue is whether that is because Republicans can't stomach Marjorie Taylor Greene, and I do not believe that has been demonstrated as of now.
 
Well, you laid out the complexity, and I laid out the expert opinion on it, as stated by a member of her state party apparatus, it's about as good as I think can be done unless you or I really want to run the numbers in depth.
 
Farm Boy said:
as stated by a member of her state party apparatus,
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This cannot be considered in the absence of political interests, though. If this guy is a "centrist" Republican, or if he just doesn't like MTG for whatever reason, then of course he would say it's her fault they lost. He could also be saying that to deflect the blame from the losing candidates or the people who managed their campaigns.
 
It's about the only competitive race they lost. He's also the guy in charge of going through the numbers in depth. If anyone politically appointed has any interest in softballing MTG, or has the capacity to lie "for the team," it's him. But she's her, and she's bat****.
 
Protesting the police is terrorism

A police helicopter circled so close to a house in the leafy Atlanta neighborhood called Lakewood late on Saturday night that a resident said he could “damn near see the pilot”.

The resident, who asked for anonymity in order to speak with the Guardian, decided to go to a nearby friend’s house. Others were not so lucky. Several dozen other people, including members of a medical crew, were then rousted from campsites on the resident’s property during a post-dawn police raid that followed.

Up to 40 Atlanta police department officers swarmed the sprawling, hillside property, slashing medical supply tents, breaking windows of a camper van parked on site and ripping netting surrounding a greenhouse.

The Guardian has obtained a copy of the search warrant used for the raid and spoke to numerous people present during the police action. The document and the witness accounts offer telling insight into how law enforcement officials and the justice system in Georgia are prosecuting unprecedented state domestic terrorism charges against members of a broad social movement that opposes a $90m police and fire department training center, known as “Cop City”, planned for the nearby South River forest. The movement has also opposed a former film studio owner’s plans to convert 40 acres (16 hectares) of public park in the forest into private property, calling for the forest to be preserved.

The warrant states there was probable cause for believing that evidence of “conspiracy to commit domestic terrorism” could be found at the Lakewood location.
 
They've always fit the definition, the trouble is reigning them such that they're a net benefit. Not having them sucks balls, the competition is awful. Unless of course you like the Hatfields vs McCoys.
 
RobAnybody said:
If we're handing out faint praise, Pence deserves a fig leaf as well.
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Yes, Pence has already received more than his fair share of faint-praise laurels (Dan Quayle too)... and on these threads we have thoroughly explored why he doesn't necessarily deserve them... but received them nonetheless...
 
Lexicus said:
Yes, but at issue is whether that is because Republicans can't stomach Marjorie Taylor Greene, and I do not believe that has been demonstrated as of now.
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My take impression of this has been, that what we are addressing overall, is the (liberal) media narrative that MTG is an accurate reflection of the current Republican voter and/or the Zeitgeist that drives/motivates/informs their ideology. The counterpoint being made, is that this narrative is wrong, and that rather, the typical Republican rejects MTG and as a result, are either refusing to vote for Republicans and/or are instead voting for Democrats, in protest/rejection of MTG's attempt to takeover the party.

What the interview of the Republican official seems to reveal, is another facet of the developments, specifically, that while Republicans are, in-fact, embracing and supporting MTG's ideology and positions, the fact that MTG is pushing anti-Democratic election lies is creating a side-effect, whereby Republicans who believe her are simultaneously convinced to reject the Democratic process as a result, and in turn, become less likely to go out and vote, because they believe the elections are all "rigged" anyway.

What this does (the statements of the Republican election official) is bolster the notion that the ideology being pushed by MTG inherently undermines American Democracy, but this undermining has the potential to also harm her own party as a side-effect, because it is MTG's supporters who are most likely to join the rejection of American Democracy (ie., election denialism) that she is advocating.
Farm Boy said:
Well, you laid out the complexity, and I laid out the expert opinion on it, as stated by a member of her state party apparatus, it's about as good as I think can be done unless you or I really want to run the numbers in depth.
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But that's not what the Republican election official/"expert" said. He didn't say that Republicans were rejecting MTG's message/platform/ideology etc. He said the opposite, specifically, Republicans are embracing MTG's schtick, but the side effect of that is that they are becoming disillusioned with the Democratic process, voting in particular, which is leading to depressed turnout.
 
apnews.com

France's Macron risks his government to raise retirement age

French President Emmanuel Macron has ordered his prime minister to use a special constitutional power that skirts parliament to force through highly unpopular pension system changes.
apnews.com apnews.com

Wow!
Political earthquake in France today.

Retirement age is now 64 cause the President said so.

...Macron, who made it the flagship of his second term, argued the reform is needed to keep the pension system from diving into deficit as France’s population ages and life expectancy lengthens.

Macron decided to invoke the special power during a Cabinet meeting at the Elysee presidential palace, just a few minutes before the scheduled vote in France’s lower house of parliament, because he had no guarantee of a majority.
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the power of the French president to simply impose whatever he wants seems to speak to (or should I say, "acknowledge") one inherent weakness of parliamentary democracies: there are just too many parties.

but maybe someone from there can tell me why this Article 49.3 is the greatest thing ever; I'll listen...
 
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