Is Britain about to leave the EU?

[uppi]

By leaving the EU, you mean?

Yes.

You seem under the impression that the British economy is the motor of the EU. It is not. It may turn out that the UK leaving the EU does the UK more harm than good. But I'm sure the PM knows this. Otherwise, why insist on free access to the euromarket?

I dont see why EU wouldnt survive. Maybe it would even become much more united and stronger politically.

The UK leaving in itself would not be a critical blow to the EU. But fault lines and cracks in the EU construct have been showing themselves all over the place in the last few years. The UK leaving might be a catalyst that finally breaks it. But I consider the possibility to be quite small.

I could see the core states of the EU becoming more united and stronger after such an event, but I think at the moment it would have to come at the price of ditching some of the current member states.

 

[innonimatu]

I'm not sure we can make any strong statements about how the EU would respond to a British exit: the sheer level of spite surrounding its entry (which was blocked multiple times, despite convincing economic reasons to accept it) suggests that we can't assume that everyone will negotiate in the best interests of all, or even in their own best interests.

I am sure that a weak country that attempted to leave the EU would be targeted with as much damaging and vicious attacks as the governments of the franco-german axis could get away with (be allowed by their own people). Which by now will not be that much, given the hostility to the EU inside France already, and the beginnings of a popular rebellion in Germany.

But the UK can handle anything the franco-german axis can throw at it. And I expect the british government will find ways to retaliate, it that comes to be. It will not be necessary much of a shove to topple the whole EU as things stand now. The EU may be just one french election away from dissolutio and a brexit will only show to continental voters that putting an end to it is doable.

 

[Flying Pig]

That might provide a strong incentive to prevent Britain from negotiating favourable trade terms, to show to continental voters that putting an end to the EU means you can't have the cake you've been enjoying eating for so long.

 

[Silurian]

IMHO EU action on steel seems too little too late and likely on wrong product set.


There is this myth that if the UK leaves the EU it must very quickly
negotiate trade agreements.

This is not so, free trade is about letting buyers and sellers trade,
not having governments sign documents with other governments.

And negotiating in a hurry is a recipe for getting poor terms.


The UK would simply need to advise the EU of the date of its independence.


Dear sir,

At [dd/mm/yy] the majority of the UK electorate voted for leaving the EU; and
the UK parliament has decided that the cessation date will be [dd/mm/yy].

From that date all treaty (lawyers to insert list of treaties) obligations on all
parties and EU laws not expressly incorporated into UK law shall cease to apply.

The UK government has no plans to introduce any particular new tariffs on goods
or services sold to the UK by the EU, but reserves its position regarding dumping.

However the EU should note that if it intends to apply tariffs on UK goods or services
to EU member states, the UK government may take appropriate reciprocal action.

Good luck with your EU Project.


Regards

Free trade is about negotiations. If there are no negotiations then the UK will just be an important trading partner outside the EU. The EU has charged tariffs against the USA.

If the UK decides to leave the EU it has to give notice. There is then a two year period for negotiations before the UK can leave. If the UK was to break its treaty obligations I do not think that would help with the negotiations.

 

[innonimatu]

That might provide a strong incentive to prevent Britain from negotiating favourable trade terms, to show to continental voters that putting an end to the EU means you can't have the cake you've been enjoying eating for so long.

Whatever the pro-EU camp does, it will not go go down well. And even now a growing number of continental voters are already discontent with the cake they are being served.

 

[Agent327]

Well, expect people to be stupid enough to not know what's good for them. But seriously, this 'growing number of voters' should be seen in perspective. It hasn't translated in any supranational result and isn't about to.

The UK leaving in itself would not be a critical blow to the EU. But fault lines and cracks in the EU construct have been showing themselves all over the place in the last few years. The UK leaving might be a catalyst that finally breaks it. But I consider the possibility to be quite small.

Indeed. I don't follow what fault lines and cracks you are referring to. The EU has never been politically on the same line to begin with. (Which is why economic cooperation preceded political one.) Some people aren't even on the same page as the rest.

Perhaps people have forgotten that the UK's accession to the EU was for years blocked by De Gaulle's France. And for what it's worth, even after accession Britain has opted out of plenty of EU plans.

 

[Mega Tsunami]

I see some problems with this statement. (It also raises the question why on Earth Britain would leave the EU in the first place, but that doesn't seem to be the issue.)

The US is Britain’s second biggest trading partner. It doesn’t mean we have to become another US state. (Although that would be better than becoming a state of the USofE).

Interestingly, for the last 15 months, Britain's trade with the rest of the world has overtaken trade with the EU, and continues to get bigger.

Britain is, if nothing, a trading nation open to the whole world for trade. It is what we have done for centuries. And there is still a big, big world out there that needs trading with. And I include the EU in that big world.
We turned our backs on the Commonwealth (Canada, OZ etc) and turned inwards towards the EU which is not healthy at all.

One of the few good things we have done for the EU (and get no recognition for) is to stop it becoming a complete, French like, closed shop.

 

[really]

Britain is, if nothing, a trading nation open to the whole world for trade. It is what we have done for centuries. And there is still a big, big world out there that needs trading with. And I include the EU in that big world.
We turned our backs on the Commonwealth (Canada, OZ etc) and turned inwards towards the EU which is not healthy at all.

One of the few good things we have done for the EU (and get no recognition for) is to stop it becoming a complete, French like, closed shop.

The UK and France have almost identical GDP per capita figures according to the CIA world factbook and France has bigger exports. France goes about things somewhat differently but achieves similar results.

There is very little stopping the development of trade with the nations you mention - Britain just doesn't produce what they want. Canada and Australia both import more from Germany than the UK.

 

[Lillefix]

I have the impression that Britain is big on banking, while France produces and exports much more high tech stuff.

 

[Agent327]

We turned our backs on the Commonwealth (Canada, OZ etc) and turned inwards towards the EU which is not healthy at all.

Which is a political matter, not an economic one.

One of the few good things we have done for the EU (and get no recognition for) is to stop it becoming a complete, French like, closed shop.

Eh... Have a look at some facts maybe?

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statis...er_Member_State,_2013_(EUR_1_000_million).png

And the EU is mostly a closed shop for non-EU states. But then you have these association treaties and trade agreements. Not quite the same thing as membership, but still.

The fact of the matter is that Britain's economy is not a major factor EU-wise, but the EU economy is a major factor to Britain. But it seems that none of this plays a role in the current Brexit discussion.

 

[Leoreth]

Not to mention that British national interests play an important role in preventing economic reform in economic sectors that most other members are interested in, most importantly banking regulation and taxation. Which affects UK based banks whether they remain a part of the EU or not.

 

[Mega Tsunami]

Eh... Have a look at some facts maybe?

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statis...er_Member_State,_2013_(EUR_1_000_million).png

And the EU is mostly a closed shop for non-EU states. But then you have these association treaties and trade agreements. Not quite the same thing as membership, but still.

The fact of the matter is that Britain's economy is not a major factor EU-wise, but the EU economy is a major factor to Britain. But it seems that none of this plays a role in the current Brexit discussion.

My point was that the EU would have been a much more closed shop if it wasn’t for Britain.

I don’t know the figures, but Europe exports much more to the UK then we sell to them. They need us as much as we need them.

As for our economy. If the following is just partially right they might just notice if we left, don’t you think?

Britain is on track to overtake France and Germany to become the biggest economy in Europe, according to an authoritative global forecast.
A rapidly growing population, relatively low taxes and independence from the ailing Eurozone will make Britain the most successful economy in the West after the United States over the next fifteen years, according to the Centre for Economic and Business Research.
In an upbeat assessment of the country’s prospects, the CEBR said Britain, the sixth biggest economy in the world, will see its GDP grow from £1.59 trillion to £2.64 trillion by 2028.
In the same period, Germany’s output will grow more slowly from £2.2 trillion to £2.69 trillion, with growth hampered by a weak euro, an ageing population and the prospect of future Eurozone bailouts. It puts Britain on course to surpass Germany by 2030.
Britain is also due to overtake France by 2018. Its global ranking is set to slide as Francois Hollande’s high tax regime and weak exports suffocate growth.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...in-will-become-biggest-economy-in-Europe.html

 

[GoodSarmatian]

I'll bump this in 2018 and in 2030 and laugh.

 

[Mega Tsunami]

And you probably would be right to – after all, the report does not take into account the million or so refugees you have just taken on who will add to the economy and, more importantly for the long term, start creating more German babies.

I was only trying to point out how much the EU relies on Britain (especially in our importation of all those lovely Audis and BMWs etc. etc.) and how much we rely on the EU.

Just for the record, and in case anyone is interested, I don’t actually want to leave the EU – I just think there needs to be a new treaty for non-Eurozone countries that stops us integrating so much and removes that ‘ever closer union’ clause for us.
We are not going to get everything we want from Cameron this time so I am one of those ‘Vote-No-First-Timers’. If we vote to leave, panic will set in as they try and formulate a treaty that would be acceptable to us (and any others like Denmark, Sweden and maybe even Norway and Switzerland). And then, when we have the inevitable second referendum, we might very well vote to remain.

That is what happened in France, Denmark and Ireland (I think) in the past so we are bound to get a second chance to get the Treaty we want.
Yes it is taking a risk but I think it is worth it.
Yes we will still have to abide by many EU rules if we want to trade fully – but they would be rules and laws passed in Britain, not over our heads in Brussels.
Yes we would have less say in the EU – but as we are the most voted down country in the EU, would we notice?

The very worst thing we can do is to wimpishly vote to remain (first time) which would mean even less notice would be taken of our particular needs in the future.

‘Our particular needs’ mostly revolve around one word – Democracy – and the fact it is so ignored by the EU. Democracy is very much in our blood, but it seems it is very much lacking in mainland Europe.
You either have the fear of doing what happened 75 years ago again or have the fear of being on the receiving end of it again(all understandable). And you are prepared to ride roughshod over democracy to achieve it. We have no such fears. If we had no English Channel (and good friends across the pond) maybe we would think the same as Europe.
The simple fact is, we are different from the mainland and that should be taken into account for the good of us all.

 

[Agent327]

My point was that the EU would have been a much more closed shop if it wasn’t for Britain.

I don’t know the figures, but Europe exports much more to the UK then we sell to them. They need us as much as we need them.

If you actually would have looked at the figures 'you don't know', you might not have come up with such an illogical conclusion. Imports and exports have little to do with political needs.

As for our economy. If the following is just partially right they might just notice if we left, don’t you think?

Unfortunately, it's just that: only partially true. As the figures 'you don't know' show. And no, economically it would show mostly in Britain, not the EU. That has to do with the actual size of the UK economy. But this is not the issue, there is no economic reason for the UK to leave the EU, only a political one.

I was only trying to point out how much the EU relies on Britain (especially in our importation of all those lovely Audis and BMWs etc. etc.) and how much we rely on the EU.

Again, this about exports-imports, which are not even an issue except for economists.

Just for the record, and in case anyone is interested, I don’t actually want to leave the EU – I just think there needs to be a new treaty for non-Eurozone countries that stops us integrating so much and removes that ‘ever closer union’ clause for us.
We are not going to get everything we want from Cameron this time so I am one of those ‘Vote-No-First-Timers’. If we vote to leave, panic will set in as they try and formulate a treaty that would be acceptable to us (and any others like Denmark, Sweden and maybe even Norway and Switzerland). And then, when we have the inevitable second referendum, we might very well vote to remain.

That is what happened in France, Denmark and Ireland (I think)

Well, you think wrong. Perhaps check some facts before thinking? Recent trends in the EU show not a trend to 'everincreasing union' (because of opposition to it), nor a trend of countries wanting to leave the EU, but on the contrary a growing EU. Perhaps you've missed that while thinking.

(Not sure what to comment on things like 'German babies' and 'lack of democracy'.)

 

[Verbose]

‘Our particular needs’ mostly revolve around one word – Democracy – and the fact it is so ignored by the EU. Democracy is very much in our blood, but it seems it is very much lacking in mainland Europe.

OK, fair enough about the British iffyness about closer integration — the UK is not alone in that — but the bit about the EU being some kind of expression if lacking democratic tendencies with the Europeans... is the Great Big Bogeyman Of The British. It's simply not true for the EU as it currently exists. The EU has anti-democratic enemies that wants to do away with it for being too damn democratic at this point. The anti-democratic traditions one needs to worry about are there. But the EU is not their vehicle. It's the damn opposite even!

The EU has image problems up the wazoo with regards to the perception of its democratic deficit certainly — most prominently in the UK — but the trend since the Lisbon treaty debacle is different. Not that it's registering quite, certainly not in Britain.

Frans Timmermans of the present Commission is sort of its conscience on that score.
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/16a20cba-fe2d-11e4-8efb-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3xlyE5Q7t
(And is expected to be the one to head negotiations with the UK.)

But sure, since hell will freeze over before the British expect anything but darkness and despair from mainland Europe, it probably should leave the EU. There seems to be no democratic basis in the UK for staying at least. And if so, then the UK must leave, or that in itself will do bad things to British democracy. (For which it will promptly blame the continentals of course...)

Though frankly, looking at the present run of British politics in the last years, doesn't look all that impressive in its actual implementation, even of the traditions are as solid as ever. One might ask how well-represented parts of the isles feel as one moves further away from London after all?

 

[Kyriakos]

UK leaves the EU, NorseFire party forms :V:

 

[Leoreth]

British national interest is just as complicit in halting the process of democratization of the EU as any other large EU member is.

In fact, it is usually Brits who seem to complain the loudest when democratically legitimized supranational decisions in the EU affect them, and who are happy to see their national government intervene when opportune.

People who obstruct the EU because they dislike its lack of democratic institutions are hypocrites because they maintain what they claim to despise.

 

[Thorgalaeg]

Ironically the most democratic of all EU institutions, the Parlament, has been historically trashed by euroskeptics and stopped by any means of getting more relevance.

It is not about democracy vs "Brussels bureucracy", it is about national interests vs common interest. Some countries (mainly UK but not only UK) are not happy about giving up some of his own sovereignity and are (with some reason) suspicious of other countries being the same as themselves. EU integration is inevitably doomed until everybody leaves this decimononic state of mind behind.

 

[EnglishEdward]

I'll bump this in 2018 and in 2030 and laugh.

I am already laughing!