Is Britain about to leave the EU?

[really]

You are right in that it won’t be easy at first but I am sure we will be able to get our own favourable agreements. The EU is bigger, yes, with more clout perhaps, but it is difficult for them to cater for 28(ish) countries. We only have 4 to take into account and as we are so well integrated already, it really is just one country to consider (in most cases).
Not easy, but what price freedom?

That it won't be easy at first is an understatement.
The UK doesn't have trade negotiators any more & I don't see David Cameron being too keen to ask Peter Mandleson to work for a Tory government.

The US (as an example) isn't keen to negotiate directly with the UK as was highlighted earlier. Given how contentious the TTIP negotiations have been, an inexperienced team and reluctant partners - I don't see what your optimism is based on other than a hope that it will all work out.

 

[Silurian]

The UK will have negotiators who have been working for the EU. Obviously since we are part of a team we will not have enough experienced trade negotiators to make up a whole team on our own. I would imagine that some of those negotiators would not want to start again or would not want to return from Brussels to the UK.

 

[EnglishEdward]

If the USA government does not want to negotiate with the UK,
then that is fine with me.

If further to that, the USA government obstructs trade between UK
businesses and USA businesses; then (a) the UK ceases to pay any
IPR related royalties to US based organisations (b) stops implementing
US court decisions and (c) instead trades with many other countries.

 

[AdrienIer]

Making enemies of both the EU and the USA ? That's a bold plan !

 

[EnglishEdward]

Making enemies of both the EU and the USA ? That's a bold plan !

Is that your plan?

It is certainly not my plan. As indicated previously I would not start by imposing any unjustified restrictions or tariffs with the remnant EU, USA or uncle Tom Cobley land.

If those other countries chose to do that, they should expect the logical consequences.

 

[AdrienIer]

But after alienating the EU the English economy will rely more on the US trade, so if you also alienate them you'll be in big trouble. The US can take the hit of less trade with you because they trade with the rest of the world, but no country can take the hit of less trade with both their n°1 and n°2 trading partner. Therefore I doubt the English government would retaliate at the USA, whatever these guys do to you.

 

[EnglishEdward]

But after alienating the EU the English economy will rely more on the US trade, so if you also alienate them you'll be in big trouble. The US can take the hit of less trade with you because they trade with the rest of the world, but no country can take the hit of less trade with both their n°1 and n°2 trading partner. Therefore I doubt the English government would retaliate at the USA, whatever these guys do to you.

People do not buy goods because their government has an agreement with the government of the country they were made in, or not. They buy goods because
they need them, they are the right quality and the right price.

It would not be about retaliation, we have no desire to damage other countries' economies; merely about protecting UK industry from the consequence of other
countries' actions, raising taxes from tariffs and limiting any additional deficit from arising from the other country's actions.

 

[Silurian]

People do not buy goods because their government has an agreement with the government of the country they were made in, or not. They buy goods because
they need them, they are the right quality and the right price.

But the agreements that countries make does affect the quality and price. Nearly all countries have standards for goods, import/ export procedures etc. US goods that are imported into the EU have to meet EU standards or there has to be an agreement to accept the US standard. The same happens in reverse.

If the UK leaves the EU it will have to decide to carry on following EU standards or have its own. If a US company is producing goods to EU standards it may well want more money to produce a separate UK version because it will cost more.

Most of the restraint to trade between the US and the EU is due to differences in regulations.

 

[really]

Edward what you are describing is a trade war & protectionism.

I don't imagine British exporters would be happy with their IP rights being burned and having to make up sales in second tier economies.

 

[Mega Tsunami]

That it won't be easy at first is an understatement.
The UK doesn't have trade negotiators any more & I don't see David Cameron being too keen to ask Peter Mandleson to work for a Tory government.

The US (as an example) isn't keen to negotiate directly with the UK as was highlighted earlier. Given how contentious the TTIP negotiations have been, an inexperienced team and reluctant partners - I don't see what your optimism is based on other than a hope that it will all work out.

In terms of doing business, Britain is much closer to the US than to Europe.
The US reckon we influence the EU into a more open way of doing business that suites them more and we also provide a ready conduit into the EU.
That is why they want us to remain. If we leave there would be no fit of pique from the US IMO (there might be for a while from the EU of course).

And I absolutely guarantee that trade agreements between us and the US would be to a large magnitude easier than TTIP is. By a country mile. Because, regarding this, the US and Britain talk the same language. And I am not referring to English.

But it will still be a leap into the unknown, I know.

(And btw, rumour has it that Peter Mandelson is already working for Cameron behind the scenes on this very referendum we are talking about.)

 

[Mega Tsunami]

Yes Scotland is a country just like England.

The arguments in the EU referendum campaign will be held up as arguments in the next Scottish referendum.

If people argue that the UK can get better trade agreements out of the EU why shouldn’t Scotland get better trade agreements out of the UK. Every argument the Euro sceptics make will have to also explain why it does not apply to Scotland.

I should imagine the Eurosceptics will just ignore Scotland for the most part. It does not look like the individual countries of the UK are going to get a veto.

Lets imagine that England votes 55% to leave the EU and the rest of the UK only votes 40%. So then there would be a small majority to leave, 53%, but an overwhelming majority to stay in the rest of the UK. Since there is no veto for the other countries there is no mechanism to take into account the overwhelming majority to stay outside England. If then the Conservative government tried to say the vote to leave was not substantially enough there will be disruption in the party.

So then the Scottish Nationalists begin preparations for another vote to leave the UK, and they use all the arguments that the Eurosceptics used to vote to leave the EU

You are quite right – if the UK votes to leave and yet Scotland votes to stay, especially if it is by the expected large margin, a new referendum will be called in Scotland for their independence.

And if they vote to leave the UK, we will, I am sure still be buying Scotch and Strawberries at the same price as we do now because business is business.


Moving on though, how will this leave us? Lil’ ol’ England will be all on her lonesome.

How on earth will we manage, the 6th largest economy in the world. I mean, other countries all on their lonesome like Japan, Canada and Australia have all failed, haven’t they?

 

[Silurian]

If the UK was to leave the EU and break up would the Conservatives be re-elected in 2020.

 

[Flying Pig]

In England, certainly. As the last election demonstrated, Scotland and its overbalanced number of seats is the only reason we have a fighting chance of a Labour government at all. If they don't win a lot of ground there, there are enough safe Tory seats in England to make winning overall practically impossible.

 

[Mega Tsunami]

If the UK was to leave the EU and break up would the Conservatives be re-elected in 2020.

This appears to be about the only way they would lose as we have become a virtual one-party state with Corbyn even less electable than Milliband.

 

[Arakhor]

This appears to be about the only way they would lose as we have become a virtual one-party state with Corbyn even less electable than Milliband.

What precisely are you basing that on? Jeremy Corbyn has never faced a general election.

 

[EnglishEdward]

But the agreements that countries make does affect the quality and price. Nearly all countries have standards for goods, import/ export procedures etc. US goods that are imported into the EU have to meet EU standards or there has to be an agreement to accept the US standard. The same happens in reverse.

If the UK leaves the EU it will have to decide to carry on
following EU standards or have its own.

Quite so. In general, that would not be a problem to an independent UK.
We would generally be content using world standards. Some world
standards (ISO) were in fact derived by renaming British standards.

If a US company is producing goods to EU standards it may well want more money to produce a separate UK version because it will cost more.

Arguably we already have that issue with right hand drive cars;
for which the UK leaving the UK does not change the matter.

Most of the restraint to trade between the US and
the EU is due to differences in regulations.

There is significant hidden protection even within the EU and USA, so I'd say
that while some is due to differences in technical regulations while some is
due to different law, but that already exists with US states and EU members.

 

[EnglishEdward]

Edward what you are describing is a trade war & protectionism.

I don't imagine British exporters would be happy with their IP rights being burned and having to make up sales in second tier economies.

It would only be a trade war if things were well escalated which I do not advocate.

The UK pays far more to the rest of the world re IPR than the UK receives from it.

Compare BBC royalties on Doctor Who from USA
with Microsoft licences for 25 M Brits' PCs.

And the two most populous countries: China and India regard most IPR as
little more than a blatant attempt by the western imperialists (backed up by USA
hyper power might) to capitalise on being the first with a particular product, and
tax them. They therefore copy as much as possible and pay as little as possible.
I have no doubt that once the East has parity in devastation power; wider IPR will end.

 

[Agent327]

The UK pays far more to the rest of the world re IPR than the UK receives from it.

Compare BBC royalties on Doctor Who from USA
with Microsoft licences for 25 M Brits' PCs.

Apples oranges much? It's not 'the UK' that's paying here.

 

[Mega Tsunami]

What precisely are you basing that on? Jeremy Corbyn has never faced a general election.

That is a strange question. I thought it was common knowledge he was doing very badly with the electorate as a whole.
If you must, a quick google reveals a poll that shows he is the least favourable of all the five party leaders, with David Cameron on top. And he is the incumbent, who should be getting hammered no matter how well he is doing!
But with no real opposition…


http://ourinsight.opinium.co.uk/survey-results/voters-think-corbyn-might-not-last

 

[Arakhor]

Being popular does not necessarily translate into electoral success - UKIP demonstrated that quite amply last spring. If people don't want the Tories, they'll generally vote for the SNP or for Labour - who's leading them at that point is unlikely to be that important.