Is Britain about to leave the EU?

[Arwon]

Final results:

PSOE lost some seats but finally keeps the second place ahead of Podemos that remains the about same. OTOH things look much better now for the PP. It won the night finally (kind of). It could even form a government with some juggling. Maybe brexit favoured PP. A Podemos victory plus brexit all in the same week would had way too much.

Appears to me that PP-C's-CDC, PP-PSOE, PSOE-Podemos-C'S or PSOE-Podemos-all the nationalists are the only viable majorities.

And with the Senate still rigged for an absolute PP majority, there's nothing PSOE can plausibly offer the nationalists on constitutional change allowing secession and independence even if they were comfortable making concessions on that.

 

[Akka]

Well, Cameron has already reneged on his promise of starting the process of leaving the UK the very next day if "leave" won, and with even the pro-Exit looking extremely lacking in any desire to go forth, it seems to me more and more that this entire farce will not even end up in a real exit.

Which would be shameful and, IMO, even more destructive. I hope the rest of the EU refuses to accept this cowardice ; it would be just unacceptable to have the UK, after all this mayhem and posturing, simply going back to business as usual.

 

[Thorgalaeg]

Appears to me that PP-C's-CDC, PP-PSOE, PSOE-Podemos-C'S or PSOE-Podemos-all the nationalists are the only viable majorities.

And with the Senate still rigged for an absolute PP majority, there's nothing PSOE can plausibly offer the nationalists on constitutional change allowing secession and independence even if they were comfortable making concessions on that.

Independence is out of question for the PSOE too. However they supposedly want to turn Spain in some kind of federal country, but the majority needed to change the Constitution at such levels is currently out of reach in any case. So it is only words.

We could also see some kind of minority government. With punctual pacts for important topics, pacted abstentions and such. A real mess.

 

[Arwon]

So that would be parties agreeing to support a government only in votes about that government continuing to exist? (or abstaining to create a majority vote)

We call such agreements to support but not join a minority government a "confidence" agreement in British-derived parliaments. I'm not sure if you guys have an equivalent term.

 

[Thorgalaeg]

Pretty much. Simple majority is enough to invest a new president and for most laws.

We call such agreements to support but not join a minority government a "confidence" agreement in British-derived parliaments. I'm not sure if you guys have an equivalent term.

We are a relatively young democracy. We are not a word for every weird thing yet. But if the key here is confidence, honesty and honor beetwen our politics we are mostly doomed.

 

[Arwon]

Ironically you've probably got more experience of minority governments than Australia does!

 

[Thorgalaeg]

I like bipartidist systems though. They are stable and representative of the majority. You can argue they make minorities irrelevant but i find it far worse to see tiny minorities having a disproportionate protagonism against huge majorities, like we are probably going to see here along the next four years.
In any case it would not be that weird to see a PP-PSOE agreement. Some powerful regional socilalist presidents like the one from andalusia are already pleading for it. Sanchez will have to leave obviously but i find that not very improbable after this socialist debacle.

Well, i think we are hijacking the thread anyway... I find brexit a much more interesting topic than spanish politics

 

[FriendlyFire]

Which would be shameful and, IMO, even more destructive. I hope the rest of the EU refuses to accept this cowardice ; it would be just unacceptable to have the UK, after all this mayhem and posturing, simply going back to business as usual.

This is the EU, Where Greece called the Germans Nazis, Terrorist then had a referendum to reject the Bailout, 25 Billion in economic damage and then begging for a bailout. Not to mention certain factions in the EU wished to punish Greece for cooking it books to get into the EU and was blocked by other faction. Ultimately no one was ever punished for government level fraud.

It'll probably be business as usual, and EU will look at some reforms to stream line its policy process which pretty broken and extremely slow

 

[uppi]

the UK just has to send all the leave political leaders to Brussels to negotiate an exit deal and new treaties then have a referendum on whether they should accept it, if Boris and CO are up to their usual standards London's and Scotland's concerns are put off for a generation or two

To me it looks like Article 50 does not provide an exit from the exit, once proper negotiations have started. The alternative to exit with treaty might then be just exit without treaty (very bad idea).

 

[Lexicus]

This is the EU, Where Greece called the Germans Nazis, Terrorist then had a referendum to reject the Bailout, 25 Billion in economic damage and then begging for a bailout. Not to mention certain factions in the EU wished to punish Greece for cooking it books to get into the EU and was blocked by other faction. Ultimately no one was ever punished for government level fraud.

I find it hilarious that you actually think the government of Greece is somehow to blame for this. You really have a very dim idea of how the world works if you think the relevant authorities in the EU didn't know exactly what they were doing when they let Greece in.

Just like the US bankers who could make money on loans they knew couldn't be paid back, the Euro bankers knew they could wring Greece like a sponge.

 

[Phrossack]

Well, Cameron has already reneged on his promise of starting the process of leaving the UK the very next day if "leave" won, and with even the pro-Exit looking extremely lacking in any desire to go forth, it seems to me more and more that this entire farce will not even end up in a real exit.

Which would be shameful and, IMO, even more destructive. I hope the rest of the EU refuses to accept this cowardice ; it would be just unacceptable to have the UK, after all this mayhem and posturing, simply going back to business as usual.

Agreed. The right won't learn their lesson until they get their wish for independence from the EU and have to live with the consequences of their decision. To turn back now would prevent the world from seeing what happens when the anti-EU, anti-immigrant, anti-everyone-but-ourselves sorts get what they want.

 

[Dachs]

Agreed. The right won't learn their lesson until they get their wish for independence from the EU and have to live with the consequences of their decision. To turn back now would prevent the world from seeing what happens when the anti-EU, anti-immigrant, anti-everyone-but-ourselves sorts get what they want.

I feel like all the people who voted Remain and whose livelihoods may now be in jeopardy probably wouldn't enjoy being used as a cautionary tale.

 

[Phrossack]

I feel like all the people who voted Remain and whose livelihoods may now be in jeopardy probably wouldn't enjoy being used as a cautionary tale.

I'm sure. But what else are they supposed to do? Ignore the will of the people just because the winners just realized they're the dog that finally caught the car?

 

[FriendlyFire]

I find it hilarious that you actually think the government of Greece is somehow to blame for this. You really have a very dim idea of how the world works if you think the relevant authorities in the EU didn't know exactly what they were doing when they let Greece in.

Just like the US bankers who could make money on loans they knew couldn't be paid back, the Euro bankers knew they could wring Greece like a sponge.

Interesting
So that is how EU POOREST country managed to join the Euro. Greece was only copying what Belgium and France did except, Greece did just slightly cheat, it made up numbers from thin air.
My point is EU has no way to enforce Fiscal discipline and thus the EU is like a Paper Tiger

Early on, countries made a pact aimed at preventing a free-spending state from undermining the common currency

The Greek problem has shown that EU financial institutions don't have enough teeth or expertise to rein in renegade member states, said Jean-Pierre Jouyet, chairman of France's stock-market watchdog and former chief of staff to a president of the European Commission, Jacques Delors. "We need new tools to manage these disequilibriums, because a pact without sanctions is not enough," said Mr. Jouyet.

With much less fanfare, countries later revised their numbers: Of the original 11 entrants that qualified on the basis of their 1997 data, three—Spain, France and Portugal—later revised their 1997 deficit figures to above 3%. France's budget revision, to 3.3%, wasn't made until 2007.

Greece didn't make the first wave. Its 4.0% deficit in 1997 missed by too much. Even then, technocrats doubted Greek statistics. But in late 1999, eager to keep the euro zone on track, the EU overlooked those concerns. The figures for 1998 appeared better, and European governments agreed that Greece had met the fiscal goals.

They cited a cut in its deficit to 2.5% of GDP in 1998 and a projection of 1.9% for 1999, and saluted Greece for reducing its debt. "The deficit was below the Treaty reference value in 1998 and is expected to remain so in 1999 and decline further in the medium term," the governments proclaimed in December 1999.

None of that turned out to be true.

The currency union was seen by some politicians as a way to pull the EU toward political union; others, mainly in Germany, emphasized the need for fiscal and monetary rectitude.

Once a country is in the currency, little can be done to a wayward member because the euro's architects built in no real means of enforcement.

That was after the tragicomic tale of Greece's 2003 deficit. In March 2004, Greece reported that its 2003 deficit had been €2.6 billion, or 1.7% of GDP. Eurostat put in a footnote calling the figure "provisional," but it was still well below the euro-zone average of 2.7%.

Any Greek celebration was short-lived. Two months later, under pressure from Eurostat, Greece put out new figures. The 2003 deficit was now 3.2%,

In short, says Vassilis Monastiriotis of the London School of Economics, Greece "failed to internalize the logic of the euro zone—which is fiscal discipline."


http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424052748704548604575097800234925746

 

[Dachs]

I'm sure. But what else are they supposed to do? Ignore the will of the people just because the winners just realized they're the dog that finally caught the car?

I didn't say that. The reason that the result of the referendum should be carried out is that to do otherwise would be utterly untrustworthy and would cause even more political chaos. It should be because the alternative is worse. It should not be to teach people a lesson, especially when those who are being punished are, in many cases, not those who did something wrong.

 

[Dachs]

wrong thread! apparently

 

[cardgame]

Is there anything legally binding about the referendum? I was under the impression that the polits could ignore it if they wanted to.

 

[JohannaK]

Those 10 seats more came from Ciudadanos, the other center-right new party which went down. So the landscape continues the same with no a clear way to pact a path to form government.

If anything it seems new parties are going down and old ones remain. Probably it can be explained on the low participation. Young people get bored and spent the whole day at the beach while oldies remained at home watching the Eurocup and went vote in the half-time, and of course voted for who they always vote for.

Shame. Shame, shame, shame, shame. I have lost all of my faith in the people of Spain. If I wanted independence because I thought we would be able to govern ourselves better, now I want it because I know that in Spain we will never be governed better. A nation that votes for two gangs of institutionalised mafiosi doesnt deserve an iota of respect. I absolutely loathe PP and all it stands for. I could have tolerated a PSOE government, I would have sympathised with a Podemos victory just out of the shake-up it would have represented. I honestly cannot live in this country anymore.

Appears to me that PP-C's-CDC, PP-PSOE, PSOE-Podemos-C'S or PSOE-Podemos-all the nationalists are the only viable majorities.

And with the Senate still rigged for an absolute PP majority, there's nothing PSOE can plausibly offer the nationalists on constitutional change allowing secession and independence even if they were comfortable making concessions on that.

I dont think the first majority is all but viable. If CDC ever backed a PP government it would be political suicide. Granted they have a sizable non-independentist powrrbase, but defending independence and then voting against it would be too much for many, myself included. I think the most likely is a PP-C's minority government with PSOE abstention. The nationalists, the Catalan ones anyway, are unlikely to back any government, since it will necessitate a party against the referendum that is pretty much the big red line.

Independence is out of question for the PSOE too. However they supposedly want to turn Spain in some kind of federal country, but the majority needed to change the Constitution at such levels is currently out of reach in any case. So it is only words.

We could also see some kind of minority government. With punctual pacts for important topics, pacted abstentions and such. A real mess.

Spain has a history of this though, both PSOE and PP have had minority governments with punctual supports, which have typically lasted to the end.

 

[FriendlyFire]

Is there anything legally binding about the referendum? I was under the impression that the polits could ignore it if they wanted to.

I believe the Greeks pioneered having a Referendum and then doing the opposite.

Its not good since uncertainty means financial, job creation and investment slow down, so best for the British to decide one way or the other. Maybe some kind of face saving political compromise such as EU adopting stronger border controls so that UK can declare a victory and stay inside the EU

 

[Takhisis]

Is there anything legally binding about the referendum? I was under the impression that the polits could ignore it if they wanted to.

The UK still is a de iure absolute monarchy. No one can give ‘the Queen in Parliament’ i.e. the House of Commons any commands. Technically, they needn't even be an elected body.