Is Britain about to leave the EU?

[Samson]

I didn't think much of the Fixed-Term Act at the time and now I think it's even worse.

How much difference does it make though? We could still have a vote of no confidence, and trigger an election. Other than that, before the Fixed-Term Act the Tory leadership would have had to call an election, which if that is what they wanted I am sure they could still arrange it.

 

[Arakhor]

It doesn't make much difference, no, but now we're in a situation where the next Tory prime minister will look fondly on Cameron's 30% or so in spring of last year, given that the only people voting for them will be pre-existing Conservative Party members, which must be a tiny fraction of the electorate. So much for getting rid of unelected bureaucrats, eh?

 

[Yeekim]

Wait so two posh private school pillocks having a fight over the leadership just casually torched the UK economy, set off a torrent of racism, probably broke the union and may well have wrecked the peace treaty in Ulster and now they're both going to just walk away?

Perfectly summed up.

 

[innonimatu]

How much difference does it make though? We could still have a vote of no confidence, and trigger an election. Other than that, before the Fixed-Term Act the Tory leadership would have had to call an election, which if that is what they wanted I am sure they could still arrange it.

The problem is that most MP will be voting according to their own self-interest. Specifically, whether they believe they will be reelected. Will a Labour MP vote for a new election after this ongoing coup to change party leadership, if his seat has a majority of pro-Corbyn voters? Will a Conservative MP who supported Boris agree to an early election if most of his conservative voters were for Remain, or liked Cameron?

These people will find excuses avoid the 2/3 majority for calling a new election, of even a simple majority to pass a motion of no confidence. Ultimately, opposition MP can argue that the sitting government, or the most voted party, has a "responsibility" to run the country...

Wait so two posh private school pillocks having a fight over the leadership just casually torched the UK economy, set off a torrent of racism, probably broke the union and may well have wrecked the peace treaty in Ulster and now they're both going to just walk away?

Exaggerating much?
Mind you, that fight didn't happen in a vacuum. It happened because of the accumulated issues that were not addressed, but ignored until they piled up for one of those rare anti-establishment waves. People usually favor "stability" when in doubt. They were not moved to do otherwise just by two posh private school pillocks, it took a buildup of unresolved serious issues for the vote in the UK to have that result. Those two are among the first casualties of politicians trying to ride or tame that wave and failing.

Continental european politics is choke full of unresolved issues. Kicking the can down the road can't be done forever. For disintegration of a political system, keep an eye on Italy. The nordics will probably leave the EU but avoid too many internal problems. And both the french and the spanish politicians still have some time before they hit the wall. The italians though, are already staring at it...

 

[metalhead]

Seriously... you can't on the one hand condemn Leave voters who DID listen to them for being mindless stooges who believed racist rhetoric, and on the other hand condemn Leave voters who didn't listen to them for "burying their heads in the sand". Is this the Kobyashi Maru or something?

I'm not necessarily condemning everyone who voted Leave, apart from the racist twits. But there are no doubt plenty of those who didn't vote, or voted to Remain, so it's not like I'm simply tarring one side with a racist brush in order to demonize them.

However, I will definitely condemn people who voted without any idea of the arguments that both sides were making. It seems far more irresponsible to me to simply ignore what prominent politicians are saying, than it is to listen and believe the side that turned out to be making everything up. You don't have to follow either, but an understanding of the ideological ground that each side was staking out would give one a good understanding of the social ramifications of what one was voting for.

Ignoring all of that doesn't give one a pass when the side they voted for wins, and people take it as license to be openly racist. All those who voted Leave need to own those consequences, and ignorance is not an excuse.

 

[Birdjaguar]

The success of the leave vote has provided us with one of the best and most interesting non American OT threads in a very long time. And even better, it was provoked by war or bombings.

Thanks very much.

 

[Takhisis]

The shock is subsiding.
Concern would be putting it mildly.

Pragmatism is taking over. Ireland had been arguing to help the UK in the negotiations last year and lobbyied hard for a remain vote.
Now a lot of the talk is about looking out for Irish interests rather than trying to help the UK.
Minimise damage, maximise opportunities.

Lobbying for Scotland has already begun.

Keep Ulster in the EU together with Scotland in one polity… wait for the brains in London to come up with that one.

They have a lot of money invested in stocks and British companies, and will undoubtedly suffer a significant loss of wealth. Of course, that's not really "suffering", but they're not "totally unaffected" either.

I did say 'almost', but I can't imagine that it will impact their lives in any meaningful way.

They stand to lose quite a bit. But, as said a lot of times, they didn't intend for this to happen. They thought they'd get away with it as they did in 2014: give the insurgent movement a referendum to vent themselves on and let them ruin themselves.

(…) So yeah, the only one who comes out looking good from all of this is Theresa May, who has largely remained anonymous throughout.

What an indictment of British politics.

I think that we're in for another novel thing in the modern UK: a monarch having to defy and act of parliament to dissolve it and call an early election - because those MP don't seem responsible enough to do it on their own initiative. Else the country won't be governable at a time when it needs a strong government: a new relation with Europe, dealing with the SNP ambitions... I do wonder if she can get away with it?

It would be completely legal, btw.

Wait so two posh private school pillocks having a fight over the leadership just casually torched the UK economy, set off a torrent of racism, probably broke the union and may well have wrecked the peace treaty in Ulster and now they're both going to just walk away?

Perfectly summed up.

Who cares about Ireland?

 

[FriendlyFire]

EU facepalm

Photos of Vytenis Andriukaitis, a Lithuanian member of the European Parliament (MEP), "facepalming" as the UKIP leader spoke have been widely shared on social media using the hashtag #WeAreSeat123.

Social media users also noted Mr Andriukaitis was a heart surgeon who was brought up in a gulag after his family was deported by Joseph Stalin to Siberia, after Mr Farage said of his fellow MEPs: "I know virtually none of you have ever done a proper job in your lives."

 

[Arakhor]

Farage is an objectionable little man, who seems to think he can score points by being very rude. If that had happened in Parliament, he probably would have been rebuked by the Speaker.

 

[GoodSarmatian]

That's not even the best part of the speech.
The best part is that Nigel started with "When I first came here you laughed at me. You're not laughing now", and when he went on and said they should get a good deal because the EU needs trade with the UK more than the UK needs trade with the EU they started laughing.

 

[Arakhor]

That viewpoint is laughable, yes. It baffles me how someone can think that the UK can cut out the EU entirely and rely on American and Commonwealth markets, yet somehow think that the EU would be worse affected. Hell, as a former stockbroker should well know, the City of London certainly won't retain all its bankers if such a thing happened.

 

[GoodSarmatian]

I guess some Brits still think of themselves as The Empire and above any treaty that isn't skewed massively in their favor. Nigel probably believes his country can negotiate as if it just won one of the Opium Wars.

 

[Snerk]

I'm starting to think there's a decent chance that the next PM won't actually follow through on the exit and instead just postpone until the whole thing fades away. Or until a labour government is elected, also uninterested in managing an exit. UKIP and friends will still have gotten their protest voiced. And EU will have demonstrated that the markets are not at all keen on a Brexit.

 

[Verbose]

I'm starting to think there's a decent chance that the next PM won't actually follow through on the exit and instead just postpone until the whole thing fades away. Or until a labour government is elected, also uninterested in managing an exit. UKIP and friends will still have gotten their protest voiced. And EU will have demonstrated that the markets are not at all keen on a Brexit.

Still leaves the UK in a kind of expectant limbo vis à vis investors, or anyone taking a mid-to-long term view of economic acitivity in the UK. Effectively it could end up as if the UK was under a kind of financial embargo, until someone eventually can step forth and declare the whole "Brexit" issue properly dead.

 

[FriendlyFire]

So much for the assertion that being part of the WTO will allow Access to the EU markets
Much of the UK trade come because UK acts as a backdoor to other markets into the EU. This is hilarious.

Professor Michael Dougan on the EU Referendum

One of the UK’s leading EU law experts criticizes the referendum debate’s 'dishonesty on an industrial scale', as he considers the claims and counter claims from each side.

University of Liverpool Law School’s Professor Michael Dougan has spent his career studying EU law as it relates to the UK; contributing to Parliamentary Select Committees, advising government and now helping media fact check the barrage of assertions emanating from the Remain and Leave camps, in the run up to June 23.

Here, Professor Dougan analyses the substance of each viewpoint and delivers an informed assessment of the UK’s potential future position, both as a member of the EU and in the wake of a vote to leave.


Link to video.

 

[Sommerswerd]

The success of the leave vote has provided us with one of the best and most interesting non American OT threads in a very long time. And even better, it was provoked by war or bombings.

Thanks very much.

Yes this has all been very educational, thanks guys/gals

They stand to lose quite a bit. But, as said a lot of times, they didn't intend for this to happen. They thought they'd get away with it as they did in 2014: give the insurgent movement a referendum to vent themselves on and let them ruin themselves.

As I am beginning to understand it, they may still get away with it. Doesn't Parliament have to actually sign off on the Brexit?

 

[Cheetah]

Nigel Farage & co. actually have a plan!! It's not too bad, from what I can see.

Read it here: http://thebrexitplan.com/

 

[Arakhor]

Yes this has all been very educational, thanks guys/gals As I am beginning to understand it, they may still get away with it. Doesn't Parliament have to actually sign off on the Brexit?

Even if the Prime Minister can use privilege powers to activate Article 50 without Parliamentary approval (which is debateable), Parliament still needs to repeal the European Communities Act to start "reclaiming our sovereignty". That's not even touching all the other various rules and regulations which will need to be either kept or tossed.

Nigel Farage & co. actually have a plan!! It's not too bad, from what I can see.

Heh. That about describes it, yes.

 

[Kyriakos]

I see they resurrected Lord Heseltine. When that happens, you know things are utterly messed up ...

Btw, do the rebel (majority) Labour MPs have actual public support? Cause Corbyn won like 60% of the public vote (actual Labour voters), so it looks a bit way too revanchist to stab him like that. Shameful. :\ Moreover is it even logical to expect anyone replacing Corbyn (imo he will just win again) to do better in the general election to come? He/she won't be voted upon by his fellow blairites there, but the general public.

Corbyn/Stannis owns this position by right.

 

[GoodSarmatian]

Yes this has all been very educational, thanks guys/gals As I am beginning to understand it, they may still get away with it. Doesn't Parliament have to actually sign off on the Brexit?

Great !
Everything stays the way it is, UK politicians keep crapping on "Brussels", the EU gets the blame for undermining democracy, and in five to ten years the next crop of Bullingdon hog knobbers uses a brexit referendum to play their power games.