Is Britain about to leave the EU?

[Silurian]

EU budget was €145 bn in 2015. Approx £125bn today.
6% went on staff, admin and buildings, less 1% which was spent on translation, so about £6.25 bn a year.
42500 staff noted below. Not sure if this includes EU agencies.
The UK is about 12.7% of the EU population so the UK would need to employ about 5400 staff to do their work at a cost of £794m a year.
(£15m a week from the £350m a week saving claimed for leaving the EU)

So the 10000 to 30000 extra staff to work on Brexit sounds like a reasonable range considering that the new UK staff will be trying change everything in a few years often in areas with lack of expertise because they were undertaken by the EU.

£122bn extra borrowing even if at about 1% will cost an additional £23 million in interest a week, another reduction in the supposed £350 million a week saving from Brexit.

Brexit will be measured against the £350 million a week quoted by the Brexiteers at the time of the referendum.

So 350-15 -23= £312m a week savings from leaving the EU.

But if the Brexiteers are now claiming that the saving will only be £200m a week. then the actual savings with the above deductions come down to £162m a week.

 

[Arakhor]

But if the Brexiteers are now claiming that the saving will only be £200m a week. then the actual savings with the above deductions come down to £162m a week.

£162m a week would take 358 years to pay off the £58bn that the OBR is predicting that Brexit will cost the British economy.

 

[Kyriakos]

It won't be paying that, cause it will all go to a better NHS, or (if nurses from outside are banned) setting up more schools for nurses.

 

[Arakhor]

Going to the NHS? Under this government? You must be having a laugh.

 

[W|M]

The way extra money will go to ''healthcare'' is that the Tories will privatise the NHS and funnel huge amounts of funding to shareholders

 

[Manfred Belheim]

They're selective schools, based on exams taken in the final year of primary school (and often referred to as the 11+). Not many people get into grammar schools (obviously) and although some "lower class" children manage to get in, it's rather biased towards the upper social stratas.

This is why grammar schools should be abolished, so we can instead go with the much more egalitarian system whereby places in the better schools are awarded on the basis of which children have parents rich enough to afford housing in the catchment areas.

 

[Arakhor]

This is why grammar schools should be abolished, so we can instead go with the much more egalitarian system whereby places in the better schools are awarded on the basis of which children have parents rich enough to afford housing in the catchment areas.

You can literally break any scheme by assuming that rich people will do whatever it takes to be involved.

 

[innonimatu]

And "the rich will benefit more" argument is much stronger against the grammar schools. Unlike those schools run by the state, where resources can be reallocated to improve the worse schools, the grammar schools will remain static and discriminate based o n fees, thus guaranteeing that the rich will get the "best quality available".

As for the numbers being thrown around regarding the impact of brexit, none are credible. It is something TBD, the future of European countries is very uncertain now.

 

[Hygro]

Print more pounds? On top of the dive the pound already took over the last 5 months? I don't think the people would be happy if suddenly things got even more expensive.

The other option is people lose their jobs. Unemployment, or less purchasing power?

If these figures are true, it will be a dirt cheap Brexit IMO. Where is the cliff we will be falling off that many (including myself) is expecting.

What's the mechanism for the cliff?

The fact is that if one wants a balanced budget and good quality public services including benefits, NHS and pensions etc; an
appropriate level of taxes is needed. The Germans and their government know this, UK and USA governments/people do not.

The balanced budget part is arbitrary.

 

[JohannaK]

No, minting was put forward as an alternative to borrowing. Where does employment come into play? Not that down the line, it is possible that devaluation will be desirable to make British products competitive, but it is not on the table at the moment.

 

[Manfred Belheim]

You can literally break any scheme by assuming that rich people will do whatever it takes to be involved.

Well at least a poor kid with brains can pass an 11+. He can't move into a posh catchment area.

 

[AdrienIer]

In France we have a few public high school which are outside the regular school grid. They recruit the best students who apply to them, and they're free. They even have dormitories for the best of those they accept who live far away. The difference is that rich people can't just pay their way into those schools

 

[Mega Tsunami]

What's the mechanism for the cliff?

Well, if we believed the Bremoaners before the referendum, the cliff was the simple act of us voting Leave with immediate recession setting in.

But, in general, it would have been us Brits stopping spending out of fear of the unknown and companies packing up and moving abroad.
That has simply not happened (not yet anyway).

Some companies are, I am sure, making what-if plans, but there has been nothing much concrete on that side of things yet.
Instead, companies like Nissan have shown confidence in promises made as they agreed to build new cars here; Honda is to make the UK its world hub; Jaguar just yesterday announced 10,000 more jobs as they plan to double the number of cars they build here to 1 million.
France and China have announced big investments in nuclear power stations.
IBM, Google and facebook have all announced billions of investments here in new HQs, jobs etc.

The cliff might come the day Jaguar, for example, says: You know those 10,000 jobs we announced? Well we have decided to make them EUian jobs instead.
Or perhaps the day we all realise: it is impossible to make an agreement with 26 other disparate nations in such a short time, especially when they are a bit miffed with us – and hence we have no option but to go for the so-called ‘Hard Brexit’.
Or maybe when Le Pen is voted in, or even Fillon?

The Independent:
IBM pledges major investment in UK despite Brexit vote, joining Facebook and Google
IBM has announced a major new investment in Britain, joining fellow tech giants Facebook and Google in showing faith in the UK after the Brexit vote.

“Everyone has concluded the UK economy will continue to be very strong and there will be significant opportunities with or without Brexit,” Sebastian Krause, a general manager at IBM Europe, told Reuters.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/b...tment-uk-brexit-facebook-google-a7431346.html

 

[Arakhor]

Well at least a poor kid with brains can pass an 11+. He can't move into a posh catchment area.

True, but that's the only time that grammar schools actually aid in the alleged goal of improving social mobility, rather than just cementing it by the simple expedient of lavishing money on grammar schools and ignoring everything else.

Well, if we believed the Bremoaners before the referendum, the cliff was the simple act of us voting Leave with immediate recession setting in.

For someone who claimed to vote Remain, you certainly do enjoy using silly terms.

Quite frankly though, I'm not surprised that corporate interest is still a thing - the Chancellor has announced new cuts to corporation tax and the only moves to force giant corporations to pay their minimal taxes in the first place were prompted by EU members.

 

[Traitorfish]

Bremoaners

The English language is now banned. Nous utiliserons exclusivement le Français à l'avenir, s'il vous plaît.

 

[Takhisis]

C'est a cause du la vielle alliance, n'est ce pas?

 

[Traitorfish]

Er, voulez vous la brioche dans la plantaine?

 

[Cheetah]

Can we at least stick with a version of Scandinavian or German until I've had time to learn French? Calling up my sisters all the time to have it translated is getting old.

 

[Arakhor]

Du kan alltid bruke en kjent skatte unnvike selskapets oversettelse programvare.


You could always use a famous tax-dodging company's translation software.

 

[Cheetah]

Dunno. Is that another i-product?

Edit: Ooooh! Christmas smilies!