Is Britain about to leave the EU?

[Agent327]

In similar images from today, it seems that Mrs May just can't stop lying, but then I guess that since that poor cat from years back worked out so well for her...

Actually, the second would be the lie. Leaving the EU doesn't simply mean leaving the political union (or federation rather), it means giving up access to the single market. By definition. Which is why the UK needs to make separate (trade) agreements with all remaining EU members now. And if you think that is 'free trade', than you are quite delusional. Free trade was a British policy in the 19th century when it meant access to foreign markets for British produce. It hasn't been seen since, and it's not coming back.

 

[EvaDK]

If they hold to that line, the UK will look to pragmatic arrangements with individual member states.

The Swiss people have the misfortune to be surrounded by the EU so have less choice.

No EU member states can, nor will, negotiate individual trade deals on its own behalf with non-EU nations/trade blocks. The EU nations always negotiate as a block, for obvious reasons.

The Swiss are among the wealthiest people on Earth. Highest GDP per capita after Luxembourg on Earth. The only nation in the UN with Direct Democracy in place.

I think the Swiss feel just fine.

 

[Yeekim]

Honestly, it is like watching a friend trying to hang himself by his own intestines, all while he claims it's going to give him superpowers.
Horrible, yet strangely fascinating.

 

[Mise]

I genuinely feel sick. There's nothing left to be optimistic about. This is an absolute $%^&show.

 

[really]

Yeah. It is bravado and threats.

The first EU meeting once article 50 has been triggered will be interesting. It could be very short.

 

[Verbose]

In the end, the British will be unhappy, and it will all be the EU's fault…

Headline in my rather serious morning paper was: "The British launch themselves over the edge of a cliff".

Maybe that's the strategy? Hoping the EU will still catch it...

 

[FriendlyFire]

Didnt UK goto India like last month for a trade deal and India asked for more Indian immigration to the UK ?
I spoke with a Brexiter today, they are against Muslim immigration, the rest is just window dressing

Brexit: Boris Johnson says countries queuing up for trade deals

With just over two months to go before the government is due to get official Brexit talks under way, Mr Johnson wrote in the Daily Telegraph: "We will no longer be part of the common commercial policy, or bound by the Common External Tariff, and we will no longer have our trade policy run by the EU commission.

"That means - crucially - that we will be able to do new free trade deals with countries around the world. They are already queuing up.

"Under EU rules, we are not formally allowed to negotiate these new treaties until we leave. But there is nothing to say that ideas cannot be pencilled in."

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-38658998

 

[Arakhor]

I spoke with a Brexiter today, they are against Muslim immigration, the rest is just window dressing

That's probably one of May's "eyes-wide-open" voters. Did you ask them how many Muslim countries there were in the EU?

 

[Lillefix]

Brexit: Boris Johnson says countries queuing up for trade deals

I'm picturing vultures over a dying animal.

 

[Arakhor]

Actually, the second would be the lie. Leaving the EU doesn't simply mean leaving the political union (or federation rather), it means giving up access to the single market. By definition.

Then both Theresa and the Leave campaign are/were peddling lies, because it was not absolutely clear to Leave voters that this would happen. This was supposed to be the glorious land of milk and honey after we left the EU.

Brexit: Boris Johnson says countries queuing up for trade deals

I'm picturing vultures over a dying animal.

Well, we can't start formal negotiations with outsiders until 2019, so I have no idea why they're lining up. Then again, this is Boris, so he's probably talking out of his arse as usual.

 

[Lillefix]

Well, we can't start formal negotiations with outsiders until 2019, so I have no idea why they're lining up. Then again, this is Boris, so he's probably talking out of his arse as usual.

It's not really his department anyway, is it? They made a new department for international trade.

 

[Arakhor]

I don't really know precisely which jobs have ministers, so I couldn't say.

 

[Samson]

In similar images from today, it seems that Mrs May just can't stop lying, but then I guess that since that poor cat from years back worked out so well for her...

More examples like this on the beeb.

International trade deals
April 2016: "It is tempting to look at developing countries' economies, with their high growth rates, and see them as an alternative to trade with Europe. But just look at the reality of our trading relationship with China - with its dumping policies, protective tariffs and industrial-scale industrial espionage. And look at the figures. We export more to Ireland than we do to China, almost twice as much to Belgium as we do to India, and nearly three times as much to Sweden as we do to Brazil. It is not realistic to think we could just replace European trade with these new markets."

"And while we could certainly negotiate our own trade agreements, there would be no guarantee that they would be on terms as good as those we enjoy now. There would also be a considerable opportunity cost given the need to replace the existing agreements - not least with the EU itself - that we would have torn up as a consequence of our departure."

January 2017: "We want to get out into the wider world, to trade and do business all around the globe. Countries including China, Brazil, and the Gulf States have already expressed their interest in striking trade deals with us."
Immigration:
April 2016 (responding to a question from the BBC): "What matters is that we have brought about changes in the free movement rules as a result of the negotiation."

January 2017: "As home secretary for six years, I know that you cannot control immigration overall when there is free movement to Britain from Europe."
Not reaching a deal
April 2016: "With no agreement, we know that WTO rules would oblige the EU to charge 10% tariffs on UK car exports, in line with the tariffs they impose on Japan and the United States. They would be required to do the same for all other goods upon which they impose tariffs. Not all of these tariffs are as high as 10%, but some are considerably higher."

January 2017: "And while I am confident that this scenario need never arise - while I am sure a positive agreement can be reached - I am equally clear that no deal for Britain is better than a bad deal for Britain.

"Because we would still be able to trade with Europe. We would be free to strike trade deals across the world. And we would have the freedom to set the competitive tax rates and embrace the policies that would attract the world's best companies and biggest investors to Britain."

 

[Flying Pig]

It's interesting that her statements in favour of Remain are much heavier on, well, facts than those in favour of Brexit.

 

[Verbose]

Since Brexit is seems to be whre the UK is inexorably headed anyway, I guess that's where she is determined to lead. "Fate leads the willing, but pulls the unwilling", and "It doesn't matter if the car goes backwards or forwards, as long as she gets to do the driving."

 

[Mise]

Negotiating trade deals with other nations would violate our EU treaty obligations and common market rules, but at this point I doubt any of that matters.

 

[Yeekim]

Negotiating trade deals with other nations would violate our EU treaty obligations and common market rules, but at this point I doubt any of that matters.

Nah. Merely negotiating contingency plans/having conditional arrangements in place that would come into force only after UK has left single market hardly violates anything. After all, it is a sensible thing to do.
However, you were right earlier in that other EU states won't be able to have bilateral agreements with UK. Belief this will happen is just detached from reality.

 

[Arakhor]

I don't get why we're suddenly acting like the United States. "We have everything you want and we know you're going to beg us to give it to you."

In fact, what with all the plaintive cries that the EU not instantly kowtowing would be considered aggressive and unreasonable, I'm starting to wonder if Trump's spirit has possessed May as well.

 

[aelf]

I genuinely feel sick. There's nothing left to be optimistic about. This is an absolute $%^&show.

Don't worry. As long as you have Free Trade (it can be with anyone... like Uganda or whoever) you'll be fine.

That or you can sell your soul to China. I think they want the Mayfair card.

 

[Oerdin]

Yes, but I don't recall there being an option about leaving the single market, the customs union or anything else. What's more, it would be a dramatically sad state of affairs if the people have a greater say in the issue than our elected MPs. If the Government is so certain about their course (which we all know is not true, anyway), they should put the matter to Parliament and stop wasting money on an appeal that by all rights they will lose.

Oh, stop pretending to be a simple Simon. Just what exactly do you imagine leaving the EU means? Hint: It means leaving the EU.

Your game of pretending the people's vote to leave the EU some how doesn't mean they voted to leave the EU is incredulous.