Lohrenswald
世界的 bottom ranked physicist
dunno what makes you believe EU now suddenly would try to stop unemployment lol
also keep in mind that trump is a literal manbaby
Is Britain about to leave the EU?
- Thread starter Mega Tsunami
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also keep in mind that trump is a literal manbaby
Oerdin
Deity
No special privileges involved. The US and UK can do a tremendous amount of economic harm to those that displease them. If the EU insists on going down the route of a trade war they are going to learn that the hard way. It is an either or choice they have before them; they can come to a reasonable free trade agreement like friends or they can chose to be enemies. Choose wisely.
What do you suppose would happen to the Euro if either the US or UK decided to use their veto power over disbursements from either the IMF or World Bank to the EU for Greece? What do you think would happen to the PIGS economies if the US or UK decided to restrict access to capital markets or assign a price premium? What practical alternatives does the EU really have for the amounts needed? There are a million and one ways they could show their displeasure if it comes to a trade war.
Now, we would prefer to avoid such mutually damaging unpleasantness but if the EU chooses a trade war then a trade war you will get. Is that what you want? If you want to be treated like a friend and ally then it is time to start acting like one.
That is not a privilege that is a rational evaluation of the real world consequences for taking hostile actions against other nations and threatening their vital interests. You do not get to walk away from something like that without paying a stiff price.
I suggest you pick wisely especially with a hot head like Trump in charge because you might not like the results if you chose poorly.
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Well, the finer point is, how interested will non-EU trade blocks and nations really be in preparing/making trade deal arrangements with UK officials (formally or not), while the UK is still a full member of a trade bloc, that punches with the weight of some 400 million consumers, if they can option to wait 2 years and then deal with a UK that punches with the weight of some 80 million consumers? If I was Australia etc., I'd probably wait it out, in order to get a better deal. In the end, the UK will need to make a deal more than Australia does (which will still have intact trade relations with the remaining EU27).
Sure, but my point was that Switzerland is not really in 'misfortune' (as you put it) by being surrounded by EU nations. Quite the opposite, it seems. And they - just like Norway - have free movement with EU citizens/workers. Apparently, they can make that arrangement work just fine.
Verbose
Deity
Well, considering where Prez Trump is headed, and Brexit, the US and UK are about to inflict grevious harm on themselves. And from the OPPOSITE of free trade. Trump is a protectionist. He has as good as promised a couple of trade wars, if that's your "nuclear option". You just might get them, because Donald Trump does not do multilateral free trade deals. Never has. (Likely does not understand how that works.) NOT because other are refusing free trade. They just don't think an exploitative deal to their detriment is a good idea. As for the EU, it should be expected to look out for the functions of the common market. And if the British demand continued access on disruptive conditions, the will just say no thanks, and that's about the size of things. (They have it ALL right now. They just don't want it — or at least so the British govt has interpreted things.)
The way it currently looks, it might be up to the EU + China — hard to fathom — to step up and maintain multilateral global free trade for the future. Neither the US nor the UK are currently much about free trade. And what YOU're suggesting is simply everyone give you free stuff — Or Else!
Well, sure, that's the Russian gambit to, I guess. So first you lay waste to the EU, until that common ends up tragic enough to no longer feed you. And then you do what — eat each other?
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Verbose
Deity
You're not going to get a better deal than the EU member states, that maintain the common market for mutual benefit. You do realize that?
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Come to think about it; you know what this looks like? It looks damnably like the run-up to a bilateral trade deal between two rather uneven parties.
Of course, May for the British government has now come out with her guns blazing — and effectively making the claim that the UK is the stronger party, stronger than the EU. Well, that's not how it's seen from across the channel.
Why does to matter? Because what's been going on for an age, led by the US+EU, has been a drive to establish general frameworks for multilateral deals, where everyone knows the score and it applies evenly. That's NOT where things are currently headed. The WTO is working increasingly less well, and the last year's attempts at new multilateral deals have all been shot down. It's headed precisely towards new rounds of bilateral agreement instead. Problem with those? They tend to work out so that the stronger part benefits perceptibly more than the weaker (which still derives some benefit, just not in an equitable way).
Which is WHY it becomes SO important that the EU is supposedly so weak. Somehow everyone should be free to rip open its soft crust and gorge itself on the fatty inside — the UK, Russia, the US.
The power relations are not THAT obvious however, certainly not between the UK and the rest of the EU.
The UK is seeking a bilateral agreement with the EU here.
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Oerdin
Deity
Think carefully, junior. He is predisposed to not giving an f about your economy and he just might pull the trigger to escalate things to a degree the EU cannot stand given its internal weakness. Better to play nice, actually act like a friend and ally, and avoid the worst possibilities. The EU could choose to do that but if they choose a show down I assure you they will take the worst of it.
They have more skin in the game and thus more to lose. Why pick a right when a fight can be easily avoided? Especially since the terms offered are extremely reasonable and amount to the status quo?
FriendlyFire
Codex WMDicanious
With the way the EU is actually headed with regarding to outside immigration, and changing public stance.
I have a feeling by the time the UK leaves the EU, the EU will probably have anti-immigration policies in place but it took longer then expected due to how large and ponderous the EU is to build multi nation concensess to pass a new law
As one of the Big three EU nations, UK has already gotten special concessions and deals from the EU already
Iam sure the EU will be willing to give the usual same deal for the UK provided UK dosnt push for everything like it promised during the campaign. Like not paying into the into the EU, No free movement, Full access to common market, dont have to follow EU regulations. Maybe the UK will just have to pay more monies or have limited free trade
You missed the EU-Turkey deal regarding refugees?
That won't fly. Free movement of goods = free movement of citizens. Not that that is on the table anyway, since the UK needs to negotiate treaties with EU members individually now.
I'm not sure it's the PM's fault that only now is becoming clear what a Brexit really means in practice. During the entire Brexit campaign both sides pandered in hyperboles rather than facts.
Old Hippy
Deity
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some friend and ally the states are...its the UK that is breaking the deal the EU has not chosen a showdown
if its the Status Quo, no problems I guess
Or is that the Status Quo without items 1 to 10 plus we want your virgins on weekends
that's why trade agreements take years to reach
your argument starts off with how many virgins do you have
EnglishEdward
Deity
The Indians had open borders with the UK when they were mostly part of the British Empire, but they wanted independence which the UK freely granted them.
That independence resulted in over a million British (and many anglo-indians) having to leave India in a hurry (repatriation by ancestry)
and it is pure cheek for the republic of India to now demand settlement rights in the much more densely populated United Kingdom.
Bearing in mind Anglo-Indian history, I don't mind them trying that line on, but we shouldn't give them anything more than an amused smile.
And I don't think that Theresa May will roll over and concede that in exchange for a vague promise that the UK may sell financial services in India.
EnglishEdward
Deity
There is no reason not to include experienced trade unionists. But they should not include a current active trade union leader.
By 'disinterested' I mean that the businessman should not be prejudiced by personally being active in a company that would be
impacted by any trade deal and similary a trade unionist would need to think beyond their particular union members' positions.
FriendlyFire
Codex WMDicanious
Not sure if drinking too much tea or having delusions of Rule Britania
Perhaps if British hadnt massacred unarmed protesting indian civilians, renaging on promises for Indian self rule and outright suppression. Relationships with India would have been less damaged and less strained
I just find it amusing that India is asking for increased immigration in exchange for free trade. At least no one if forcing Opium down your throats at gun point.
I suspect that India will displace Britian in world GDP ranking within a generation, probably helped by the UK GDP going downwards
Seriously though I imagine that bragging how everyone will be lining up to sign free trade agreements with the UK, that this would be a wake up call on how long and politically difficult it is to sign these free trade agreements. India is not some smaller weaker country ready to sign up the larger trade partners terms and offer concessions. Maybe treat India as an equal would be a good start.
Appart from the more ludicrous bits of your statement:
Population density by country:
[table=head]
Rank|Country|Number of people per square kilometer
31|India|376.1
50|United Kingdom|261.66
[/table]
Mise
isle of lucy
Amazing.
Verbose
Deity
Yes, well, that's the thing. Its not about punishing the UK. It's about not rewarding behavior that proceeds from the assumption that the EU is there for the UK to avail itself of, without having to put anything back in — unlike what actual membership entails (a lot of which the UK INSIDE EU had managed to negotiate away anyway). Now, it's STILL funny how you seem to think that this was all built and maintained so that the UK should get all the benefits of the little EU serfs, and if they make a peep about it The Mighty US will punish this uppity behavior.
Sure, you can try. Frankly, with Trump I think you will, regardless of how the divorce between the UK and the EU plays out. Trump has as good as promised a couple of trade wars. Even funnier, the whole POINT is that the EU is looking out for itself. And equally funny, for all your scorn directed against the EU and Europeans, CLEARLY they have somehow managed to build something of actual and considerable value. Otherwise you would never be this hot under the collar. And final irony, considering how that works, the EU CANNOT give the UK what it ostensibly wants here (judging from May's speech) without triggering precisely the kind of centrifugal processes that could become a threat to it — which would potentially scupper the common market, leaving the UK just as wrong-footed.
So I suppose you will just HAVE to unleash the Mother of All Trade Wars against the EU, because that's how reality works. (There's no actual protection form threats and bullies you know — except giving in to them tends to be a bad idea — even when it's funny how you're gagging for the US to play that role.) The EU's first order of business it to protect itself, and that rules out just allowing the UK all the benefits and none of the chores of upkeep.
What you're suggesting is fundamentally anti-EU anyway, which kind of rules out any of it having any attraction for the EU. And the antithesis of free trade. But then, so is Trump. And likely so will America be on his watch. I suggest the UK sign a deal with his US, and find out how THAT works.
The way the US is set up, Trump CAN all by himself start half a dozen trade wars without consulting anyone. Now, no one wins a trade war. But surrender to threats has never been a defensive strategy. No one can stop Trump from doing this, if he so choses, but there's also no way of heading it off by giving up defense of the EU common market either. Either way Trump will wreck something. The only choice is what to defend. And a UK dead set of leaving the EU, while demanding all benefits, is not it.
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aelf
Ashen One
Experts and facts don't matter to Leavers.
EnglishEdward
Deity
Thank you. You are right to correct me.
I was as the time recollecting the population density of England itself which is over 400 per square km although I wrote down the United Kingdom.
Nowadays only a few percent of people work in agriculture and there's a trend towards urbanization and local population density peaks. Population density is quite well correlated with wealth. I don't see which point you're trying to make.
EnglishEdward
Deity
I do not expect and I am not asking for a better deal than the remnant EU member states.
It is largely the UK Remoaners in denial who wish to cherry pick, which is very understandably confusing to those not familiar with UK politics.
And much of what Theresa May says about access to the single market, which is not
the same as being inside the single market, is merely an open negotiating stance.
I regard it as inevitable that UK exporters will have to fill in an extra form and continue
to comply with EU product standards in exporting to the EU after the UK has left the EU.
I have let slip my age, and I am old enough to remember cathode ray televisions and magnetic cassette based video recorders.
The French wished to develope their own industry so insisted that far eastern (IIRC Korean or Japanese then rather than Chinese) imports
should all go via a single customs post in central France to be inspected by a single custom inspector who took 30 minutes for each device.
The question is whether that is going to be the approach of the EU to the UK or not?
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