Is This Really Such a Troubling Trend?

[Commodore]

Link

Okay so this article states that here in the US college enrollment amongst high school seniors is at the lowest its been for a decade and is going to continue to trend downwards. The article also implies that is somehow a bad thing.

I disagree. I think a traditional university is not for everyone and most people would be better served going to a trade school rather than a university. I also think more and more high school students are realizing this and are foregoing a university education for training in a practical job skill that will actually get them a career. Now of course universities are worried about this because lower enrollments means less income. But is this really a bad trend for the population at large? I think its great that people who would otherwise be wasting their time and money at a traditional university due to societal pressure to get a degree are choosing a path that better prepares them for life.

At 65.9 percent, college enrollment among new high school graduates is at its lowest percentage in a decade, down from 66.2 percent last year, and significantly down from a peak of approximately 70 percent in 2009.

It's not because they're lazier, either. Instead, as the job market continues to recover, new graduates are choosing work over additional schooling -- those not enrolled in college in October 2013 were more than twice as likely as those who were enrolled to be working or looking for work, the report finds (74.2 percent compared with 34.1 percent).

So what does CFC think? Is this the terrible trend among American youth this article says it is? Or is this a positive sign that high school grads are finally making wiser choices about their higher education and not caving to societal and parental pressures?

 

[downtown]

So what does CFC think? Is this the terrible trend among American youth this article says it is? Or is this a positive sign that high school grads are finally making wiser choices about their higher education and not caving to societal and parental pressures?

They aren't being smarter. You got the conclusion wrong...students aren't forgoing a 4 year university degree in favor of trade school. According to the article, enrollment %s at 4 year schools are actually up. The decline in enrollment is at 2 year colleges...community colleges and trade schools.

Young people choosing to forgo any type of postsecondary education is typically not a very smart move, long term. While it is true that 4 year degree is not for everybody, the most stable non-white collar positions typically require *some* sort of additional education, be it a certification, trade school, or something similar. Going straight into the workforce will leave a student less able to navigate a changing economy, and everything else being equal, will make them more likely to be unemployed.

The kids who are getting left out here are ones who cannot work their way through school. If we want these people to participate in additional training, we need to provide a better way for them to pay for it.

 

[kramerfan86]

If they are actually going and getting job training its good, if they are financially forced to look for low wage service jobs because they cant afford what they actually want to do its not so good.

 

[Hygro]

downtown for mayor

 

[Core Imposter]

Some of that is directly attributable to Call to Duty.

Supposedly, we are making the transition to total immersion in pleasurable pursuits. Apparently the combination of technology and welfare has eliminated labor. Well, trending. So why bother. Got insurance to age 26 right.

The Swiss are voting on a $25K universal wage, which you get for breathing. Inhaling a joint qualifies. So WTH would we go to university. Get ahead of the curve. Sleep in.

Downtown is old school. We print, borrow, tax and spend bro. It ain't household economics. Chill.

 

[Hygro]

Some of that is directly attributable to Call to Duty.

Supposedly, we are making the transition to total immersion in pleasurable pursuits. Apparently the combination of technology and welfare has eliminated labor. Well, trending. So why both. Got insurance to age 26 right.

The Swiss are voting on a $25K universal wage, which you get for breathing. Inhaling a joint qualifies. So WTH would we go to university. Get ahead of the curve. Sleep in.

$25,000 would make going to a university a lot easier that's for sure. And I could take entrepreneurial risks more, or devote more time to community. If I had 26k/year just for living I wouldn't need as much recharge time. I'd work even harder.

 

[kramerfan86]

$25,000 would make going to a university a lot easier that's for sure. And I could take entrepreneurial risks more, or devote more time to community. If I had 26k/year just for living I wouldn't need as much recharge time. I'd work even harder.

There are a good chunk of people though who wouldnt. Im not viciously right wing when it comes to the safety net but 25k for doing absolutely nothing is a joke.


back on topic, some sort of post high school education is basically a necessity in today's economy. Only job you are getting straight out of high school barring having some invention to ride is flipping burgers or work at a box store. it simply isnt a viable option.

 

[downtown]

downtown for mayor

damn right

Some of that is directly attributable to Call to Duty.

Supposedly, we are making the transition to total immersion in pleasurable pursuits. Apparently the combination of technology and welfare has eliminated labor. Well, trending. So why bother. Got insurance to age 26 right.

Actually, the study specifically says that the population who isn't going to school *is* entering the workforce. It's not a smart long term move, but it isn't a lazy one.

Downtown is old school. We print, borrow, tax and spend bro. It ain't household economics. Chill.

I mean, this clearly *isn't* household economics, but there are tons of ways to approach this particular problem that have nothing to do with taxing, or even necessarily increasing spending.

 

[Commodore]

They aren't being smarter. You got the conclusion wrong...students aren't forgoing a 4 year university degree in favor of trade school. According to the article, enrollment %s at 4 year schools are actually up. The decline in enrollment is at 2 year colleges...community colleges and trade schools.

Okay I just reread the article to make sure I didn't miss something and the article doesn't say that at all. The article says those who go to a four-year institution have a lower unemployment rate than those who don't, but nowhere does it say enrollment in 4-year institutions are up and enrollment in 2-year and trade schools are down.

 

[downtown]

Okay I just reread the article to make sure I didn't miss something and the article doesn't say that at all. The article says those who go to a four-year institution have a lower unemployment rate than those who don't, but nowhere does it say enrollment in 4-year institutions are up and enrollment in 2-year and trade schools are down.

4th Paragraph.

Why are high school graduates passing on college? The increasingly ridiculous cost of an education is certainly a factor, but probably not the main explanation (while enrollment is down at two-year post-secondary programs, it's actually up at traditional four-year institutions, where tuition tends to be the most expensive

 

[Hygro]

I mean, this clearly *isn't* household economics, but there are tons of ways to approach this particular problem that have nothing to do with taxing, or even necessarily increasing spending.

Aye. It doesn't always have to be a deficit or even an aggregate demand discussion, even when I'm here– and literally reading Keynes's General Theory and checking CFC when my brain hurts from following his nuances.


The thing that downtown already said but I want to take a slightly different direction is that these people aren't going to trade schools.

We shouldn't see news as good news because the opposite of the news contradicts what news we hope to read. I.E. we aren't reading that trade education is up, we are reading that education is down. Now this could give more slack and incentive to go to trade schools under the right circumstances, but it's more important that we keep our understanding of the trend tethered to what's on print, not what it could hopefully mean.

 

[Commodore]

4th Paragraph.

Okay, I stand corrected, but it still doesn't mention trade schools. And you can't lump those in with 2-year institutions because a trade school and a 2-year community college really are two completely different types of educational institutions.

From what I am gathering the author of the article is lumping 2- and 4-year schools into the same category (which does make sense) and calling them both "college". So while 4-year enrollment may be up overall, "college" enrollment overall is down.

This is not necessarily a bad thing in my opinion. I have been saying for a long time now that we need to stop pressuring kids to go to a 4-year college and focus more on sending them to trade schools where they can learn a skill. That way we can return universities to their original purpose of being a place for someone to pursue a career in academia or conduct research. Universities were not meant to be job-training facilities, that's why trade schools exist.

 

[Hygro]

Okay, I stand corrected, but it still doesn't mention trade schools. And you can't lump those in with 2-year institutions because a trade school and a 2-year community college really are two completely different types of educational institutions.

From what I am gathering the author of the article is lumping 2- and 4-year schools into the same category (which does make sense) and calling them both "college". So while 4-year enrollment may be up overall, "college" enrollment overall is down.

This is not necessarily a bad thing in my opinion. I have been saying for a long time now that we need to stop pressuring kids to go to a 4-year college and focus more on sending them to trade schools where they can learn a skill. That way we can return universities to their original purpose of being a place for someone to pursue a career in academia or conduct research. Universities were not meant to be job-training facilities, that's why trade schools exist.

I think the point is that "this is not a bad thing" doesn't follow because your "not a bad thing" isn't related to the actual thing that made you think about the thing you want to be true (more trade education to replace a 4 yr degree).

 

[downtown]

Okay, I stand corrected, but it still doesn't mention trade schools. And you can't lump those in with 2-year institutions because a trade school and a 2-year community college really are two completely different types of educational institutions.

Depends on the trade and your town. There are lots of places where the vocational school and the community college are the exact same place. The biggest difference, I think, would be between a two year vocational school program, and a for profit certification program that lasted maybe 6-8 months. I suspect even those are included in this study though. I know somebody at work wrote about this a few days ago, I'll ask them about it.

From what I am gathering the author of the article is lumping 2- and 4-year schools into the same category (which does make sense) and calling them both "college". So while 4-year enrollment may be up overall, "college" enrollment overall is down.

Yup, that is correct.

This is not necessarily a bad thing in my opinion. I have been saying for a long time now that we need to stop pressuring kids to go to a 4-year college and focus more on sending them to trade schools where they can learn a skill. That way we can return universities to their original purpose of being a place for someone to pursue a career in academia or conduct research. Universities were not meant to be job-training facilities, that's why trade schools exist.

Here is the thing though, the data suggests that isn't happening. Again, from the article:

Instead, as the job market continues to recover, new graduates are choosing work over additional schooling -- those not enrolled in college in October 2013 were more than twice as likely as those who were enrolled to be working or looking for work, the report finds (74.2 percent compared with 34.1 percent

This suggests that people are forgoing postsecondary education to attempt to join the workforce, not to go to trade school (which again, would often be lumped in with 2 year programs), and that people are *not* forgoing 4 year colleges...they're doing the opposite.

The person who decides to do construction work, or entry level sales, or bartending, or service industry work, or anything else that requires zero training right out of high school may outearn the person who went to a two year program at first, but the guy without any training is most likely to get laid off first, and to struggle to find another job. Now that organized labor is basically shot, none of those training free careers are stable.

 

[hobbsyoyo]

Yeah, community colleges very often have trade school components and can even be *the* trade school for the regions they operate in. So the distinction is a bit blurry there.

I would agree that if more students were opting for trade school rather than 4 year university, that would be a good thing. But a decline on people getting any sort of post-secondary education is a bad thing.

It is understandable, however, given the explosion of the cost of a 4 year education in the US in the past couple of decades. It's getting out of hand and I think one of the roots of the problem is how much subsidizing/support that the State/Federal governments give to colleges/programs/students without any kind of cost/benefit analysis. I'm not an anti-tax libertarian crusader but from my experience on a college board and a statewide college board, it was easy to see how much the subsidies distort the overall market. As a nation, the US should do a better job of making sure tax money is spent wisely to support post-secondary education and stop blindly throwing money at the problem.

*'blindly throwing money' is an obvious hyperbole and a giant oversimplification

 

[Formaldehyde]

There is a simple way to determine if this is due to the ludicrous cost of a proper college education these days. Make the tuition and most books free at all public institutions and see how many people sign up for college or trade schools.

I think the real problem is that higher education has become a quite profitable "industry" in the US, much like healthcare.

 

[Azale]

There are a good chunk of people though who wouldnt. Im not viciously right wing when it comes to the safety net but 25k for doing absolutely nothing is a joke.

How much do you know about the literature on a universal basic income? Or the saliency of your "people need to always be on the edge of financial ruin to be properly motivated not to be poor slobs" argument?

Should probably read up some on it before you call something approved by a wide spectrum of intellectuals and philosophers a total joke.

 

[warpus]

I would be very interested to see what secondary education enrollment numbers would look like in a country where basic income was implemented, compared to the numbers before.

Basic income will one day become a sort of necessity, assuming that our civilization can support it. Automation is going to drive us to it, so we better start planning as soon as we can - meaning now.

 

[Narz]

If they are actually going and getting job training its good, if they are financially forced to look for low wage service jobs because they cant afford what they actually want to do its not so good.

Right. If you're gonna be working at the Gap better to do it without the debt & the Italian Literature degree.

 

[Narz]

we are reading that education is down

College enrollment being down doesn't mean "education is down" it just means enrollment is down.

Nowadays we have more college graduates than ever before but I'd bet those holding & using library cards are likely at an all time low. I'd rather hire a voracious reader who believes in lifelong education than someone with a 4-year degree who thinks he's "done".