New Study on US Graduation Rate Data Released

[downtown]

Finally, a little bit of good news on the US K12 Education front. Johns Hopkins just released a new comprehensive report on graduation rates and the achievement gap (I'll link to it at the bottom, I'm reading it now), and some of the results are promising. Here are some of the bullet points

*The national HS graduation rate is 75% (for the class of 2008). This isn't spectacular, but it is an improvement over 2001, albeit a small one (from 71%). The national goal is 90%.

*The number of "Dropout Factories", or schools where 60% or less of the student body reached 12th grade, fell fairly significantly, by 13%. There are still over 1,700 of these schools nationwide though.

*Several states noticed significant improvement in graduation rates, led by New York and Tennessee (10 and 15 points!). Most states improved by around 4-7, and three states, Arizona, Utah and Nevada, got worse. Tennesee's gains are, in part, thanks to innovate new law that states students must stay in school until they are 18 if they want to keep their driver's license.

*There is a significant racial difference in graduation rates. 91% of Asian students graduate, 81% of whites, and around 64% of Native Americans, Hispanics and Blacks graduate. The later three are all substantially more likely to attend dropout factories. Asians are the least likely.

*Education in the west seems to be getting worse. More students in California, Nevada and Arizona are attending dropout factories. Most of the gains actually came from the South.

The full report (in fairly easy to understand language) can be found here http://www.americaspromise.org/Our-... a Grad Nation_FullReport_FINAL 11-30-10.ashx

So what's the deal? Are we making progress? How much more progress can we expect to make? What's the deal with the West? What do you think about TN's driver's license law? Is this even important?

EDIT: The state by state map is on page 28, if you want to know how your state is doing. (can anybody post a pic?) Still several states with grad rates below 70%. YIKES. One of those states? ALASKA.

 

[Bill3000]

Whoa, 75%? I never knew it was that low.

 

[downtown]

I don't think it's ever been over 80% since we started tracking it. The high point was around 78% in the 1970s? Only a handful of states are above 80.

It is shocking, since I suspect most American OTers attended high schools were the graduation rate was over 90.

 

[Zelig]

It is low because the standards are high, right?

 

[downtown]

for those who are struggling to get to the study, try here http://www.learningfirst.org/build-grad-nation-we-need-systemic-change#comments

 

[civ_king]

40% of my school had at least a 3.0, also there is no AP or Honors

 

[bombshoo]

Always good news to hear things are improving, even if it's slow. I must admit, going to a high school where the graduation rate was 98% and the college attendance after high school was about 90% has left me jaded. I never knew it was so bad, but I guess it makes sense. I imagine most suburban and private schools are close to the graduation rate my school was at, but some inner-city schools drag down the average.

 

[amadeus]

Is there any sort of correlation between NCLB and graduation rate? If so, is it negative or positive? (Both in the quality of education and the percentage of graduates.)

 

[Earthling]

Whoa, 75%? I never knew it was that low.

Really? I'm surprised they still managed to tally it that high. As mentioned in this study they've certainly made improvements in tracking data in many states, so I'll take the attempt at an "averaged freshman graduation rate" at face value this time. Many states just lied or kept horribly misleading statistics in the past, but that's a good thing to try to measure in theory. So it is good news in that sense but the rate could easily be expected to be lower (and it is in many states)

Still, I wouldn't be surprised if the rate goes down in a few years/with the next solid study that finally forces states to keep real, accurate data rather than compare different year groups or different numbers of students to inflate ratios. Number of students entering ninth grade compared to students graduating three years later, not number of graduates/number of seniors or something, that's what we really want.

 

[downtown]

It is low because the standards are high, right?

Not really, no. No material after 10th grade is on any state graduation exams (and you can take them like 6-8 times if you fail), and the diploma benchmark for coursework is pretty low.

Always good news to hear things are improving, even if it's slow. I must admit, going to a high school where the graduation rate was 98% and the college attendance after high school was about 90% has left me jaded. I never knew it was so bad, but I guess it makes sense. I imagine most suburban and private schools are close to the graduation rate my school was at, but some inner-city schools drag down the average.

It isn't just an inner city problem. Several of the states with the lowest graduation rates (Nevada, Alaska, South Carolina) aren't terribly urban. We could find a LOT of suburban and rural districts who have below 80% grad rates. I know of a LOT just in Ohio.

Is there any sort of correlation between NCLB and graduation rate? If so, is it negative or positive? (Both in the quality of education and the percentage of graduates.)

I don't think there is nationally. Graduation rates fluctuate WIDELY between states,(89% is the highest, 51% the lowest), and obviously, school quality fluctuates by zipcode. While NCLB might have helped improve the quality of the data, I think it would be hard to argue that it was the prohibitive factor in academic student achievement. I can prove that it made the quality of education worse in poorer schools, since it shrunk the curriculum (a sad side effect of NCLB is that it basically ends science and social studies classes for half the year).

Still, I wouldn't be surprised if the rate goes down in a few years/with the next solid study that finally forces states to keep real, accurate data rather than compare different year groups or different numbers of students to inflate ratios. Number of students entering ninth grade compared to students graduating three years later, not number of graduates/number of seniors or something, that's what we really want.

Yeah, that is certainly possible. Several states were famous for kind of fudging graduation numbers to make the dropout problem seem "less bad". I think some of the major downward spikes should resolve themselves by the next data cycle though.

 

[JerichoHill]

I don't think it's ever been over 80% since we started tracking it. The high point was around 78% in the 1970s? Only a handful of states are above 80.

It is shocking, since I suspect most American OTers attended high schools were the graduation rate was over 90.

Not I! 65% Graduation Rate of those who stared as Freshman in the system!

 

[Masada]

... 54% here, if that (ABS 2010, 4221.0). In reality, that figure is probably wildly optimistic simply because we don't know how many students there really should be. So, at a guess, I would be looking at 45%. This is working backwards from a rough estimate of just how inaccurate the census is. (I'm still waiting for ma' data on that). So, Northern Territory #1?

The figures for New Zealand and Victoria where I also attended schooling are not as bad, but are still below 60%. Looking back I went through a litany of failing schools and failing systems. Somehow I survived... although I don't know why.

 

[amadeus]

Funny, I attended a high school with a 97% rate and I dropped out.

 

[Bestbank Tiger]

I don't think there is nationally. Graduation rates fluctuate WIDELY between states,(89% is the highest, 51% the lowest), and obviously, school quality fluctuates by zipcode. While NCLB might have helped improve the quality of the data, I think it would be hard to argue that it was the prohibitive factor in academic student achievement. I can prove that it made the quality of education worse in poorer schools, since it shrunk the curriculum (a sad side effect of NCLB is that it basically ends science and social studies classes for half the year).

The real agenda behind NCLB was to make everyone mediocre because it's not 'fair' that some people are smarter and work harder than others. It should have been called "No Child Gets Ahead".

 

[downtown]

The real agenda behind NCLB was to make everyone mediocre because it's not 'fair' that some people are smarter and work harder than others. It should have been called "No Child Gets Ahead".

NCLB didn't hold any good school back, it just might have created some more paperwork. If anything ,it was a big sloppy wet kiss to the testing and perpetual education crisis industry. It made a lot of people rich.

 

[Theige]

What the hell happened to Nevada?

The dropout rate jumped 20% in 6 years?

 

[downtown]

What the hell happened to Nevada?

The dropout rate jumped 20% in 6 years?

*Between 2001 and 2008, the ESL student population in Nevada jumped over 300%

*Nevada went broke, and couldn't build the infrastructure needed to handle a huge influx of students with special needs...or students in general

*Part of the decade saw a bump in landscaping, construction and hospitality jobs that don't require a HS diploma

*Las Vegas schools had terrible administrators.

 

[illram]

NCLB made people rich? I am shocked. SHOCKED.

 

[metatron]

Not really, no. No material after 10th grade is on any state graduation exams (and you can take them like 6-8 times if you fail), and the diploma benchmark for coursework is pretty low.

Huh?
I'm sorry if i'm a bit slow here.
So, you do your final exams in grade 12 exclusively about stuff from grade 9 or 10?
...if i got that right, my next question would be: Why?

 

[downtown]

Huh?
I'm sorry if i'm a bit slow here.
So, you do your final exams in grade 12 exclusively about stuff from grade 9 or 10?
...if i got that right, my next question would be: Why?

You don't take final exams in grade 12 per se. In order to graduate HS in the US, you need to do pass all your classes (so you still need to get at least a D in 12th grade english or whatever), AND pass a state proficiency test. That test is usually given in 9th or 10th grade, so if you flunk it, you have extra chances to take it again before the end of 12th grade.

It usually requires some sort of essay, reading comprehension, algerbra and geometry (maybe a little bit of Algerbra II), and depending on your state, some basic biology or social studies questions. They aren't supposed to be super hard tests, just to make sure that kids who are passing their classes can actually, you know, read.