Newcomb's Problem
- Thread starter Erik Mesoy
- Start date
Of course there's good reason... he has been right 100% of the time and 100 times is large enough sample for a good estimate of successfulness.
That's like saying "Well I've turned the tap 100 times and each time water comes out. However, there's no guarantee that it will happen next time. Therefore I will bet that no water will come out"
There is no guarantee that water will come up. There's no guarantee that the sun will rise the next day. It's an illogical belief because there are no grounds for believing it to be true. Yet we all believe it to be true. No one really thinks that a box of gloves is going to come up the next morning, but that would make about as much sense as saying that the sun will rise too.
That's David Hume for you!
Kennigit
proud 2 boxer
B, as in BOTH. It's already determined what will be in the box, and it doesn't matter what Omega predicts of me: there are two boxes in front of me worth either $1,000 or $1,001,000, and that will not change because of my choice.
I'll assume that's a long winded way of saying you agree with me.
But if he has predicted 100/100 correct, what does that suggest? Getting that right by chance alone is equivalent to 0.000000000000000000000000000079%. Did you consider the possibility that he might be able to calculate your decision?
Catharsis
catch u on the flip scythe
You're assuming incorrectly. You could have just read the first sentence: "There is no guarantee that water will come up." and you would have known the gist of it. I'll just assume that you're afraid to confront the truth.
Kennigit
proud 2 boxer
How does it even matter what he predicts? He predicted what he thought my choice would be, put the money in the boxes, and put them in front of me and left forever. The money in the boxes is based on his prediction of my choice, not my actual choice. The value of the boxes isn't going to change when I make my choice, so I might as well take both.
Lets say he predicted I would choose both boxes, and thus I would get $1,000 if I chose what he predicted. But what if he was wrong, and I chose box B. That leaves me with $0. Box B isn't going to spawn a million dollars just because I chose only it.
dcbandicoot
the true corporate champ
So if he's a time traveler, there's really nothing you can do because what you're doing is predetermined anyway.
Otherwise, what's in box B is predetermined once he leaves. Hence the reason why you take box A.
The logical fallacy is that
IF you take box A, THEN box B will be empty.
which stems from
IF he thinks you will take box A, THEN box B will be empty AND
IF he guesses, THEN he is right, which people have assumed is true because he's 100 right out of 100, but is actually a logical fallacy which goes back to LF's thoughts..
LightFang said:
LightFang said:
a_propagandist
The Light Brigadier
Yeah. For all you know, the next 100 B's will be empty. It could very well be a coin flip.
I'd pick Box B, give perfy a hundred grand for his box, and try to convince the world that I picked both boxes.
I pick B because there's enough doubt to figure that Omega has a fix in.
I pick B because there's enough doubt to figure that Omega has a fix in.
Integral
Can't you hear it?
I'd call Eliezer Yudkowsky and ask him what to do. 
warpus
Sommerswerd asked me to change this
Let's assume I'm going to take box B and box B alone. There might be a million dollars in there, right? And if I went with the past statistics I'd assume that box B would contain a million dollars, if I took box B only.
Alright, so we're assuming that box B has $1,000,000 in it.
So we might as well take both boxes, since what's inside box B won't magically change (unless that is a trick the alien has been playing on us all along, in which case taking box B only makes more sense)
Alright, so we're assuming that box B has $1,000,000 in it.
So we might as well take both boxes, since what's inside box B won't magically change (unless that is a trick the alien has been playing on us all along, in which case taking box B only makes more sense)
Ayatollah So
the spoof'll set you free
Ya beat me to it.Well sort of. He did say the mono-direction of causality, not time. Maybe what he should have said is "the mono-direction of what matters about causality for rational decision-making." But what he did say is close enough.
Because I will take B only, Omega will put the money there. That is the only "'cause" that matters.
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Although it makes logical sense to take both, I'd only take box B. Why? If the alien is intelligent enough to predict what everyone else is doing, it wouldn't at all surprise me if he was also intelligent enough to mess with the amount of money in the box from afar. After all, it's already been stated that box A vanishes in a puff of smoke if you take only box B.
And besides, $1000 isn't that much if you already get $1,000,000.
On a side note, I'd hope Omega isn't doing this with too many people - otherwise we might get quite a bit of inflation.
And besides, $1000 isn't that much if you already get $1,000,000.
On a side note, I'd hope Omega isn't doing this with too many people - otherwise we might get quite a bit of inflation.
Perfection
The Great Head.
Here's why I say it's better to be a 1 boxer then a 2 boxer (although I'm sticking with my 1.49999 box solution outline on the first page as being the best).
Two boxers seem to think that their choices are something special that comes out of their perfectly free minds. However, minds are merely complex physical processes, and there's no physical reason why one couldn't anticipate one's reaction with a high degree of success given good enough measurement and analytic tools. So it is possible that this alien could know what you were going to pick before you picked it. After the box is laid yes, it would be optimal given a free choice to pick both, but you don't have a free choice, you have the culmination of your personality, experience, knowledge, biology, whatever determining your choices for you! Your free choice is actually a fiction, brought about in your mind!
The question really isn't what should one choose, but whether one person is a two boxer or a one boxer (or a 1.49999 boxer)?
If you are a one (or 1.4999 boxer) like me you get the money
if you're a two boxer you don't.
Two boxers seem to think that their choices are something special that comes out of their perfectly free minds. However, minds are merely complex physical processes, and there's no physical reason why one couldn't anticipate one's reaction with a high degree of success given good enough measurement and analytic tools. So it is possible that this alien could know what you were going to pick before you picked it. After the box is laid yes, it would be optimal given a free choice to pick both, but you don't have a free choice, you have the culmination of your personality, experience, knowledge, biology, whatever determining your choices for you! Your free choice is actually a fiction, brought about in your mind!
The question really isn't what should one choose, but whether one person is a two boxer or a one boxer (or a 1.49999 boxer)?
If you are a one (or 1.4999 boxer) like me you get the money
if you're a two boxer you don't.
Is the money technically counterfeit anyway?
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