Newt Up in Polls.

[Cutlass]

Despite the fact that no one has given former Congressman and Speaker of the House a shot in hell at the presidency, Republicans have given him another look and he has risen to second in a recent CNN poll.

CNN Poll: Gingrich soars, Cain drops
Posted by
CNN Political Unit

Washington (CNN) – A new national survey of Republicans indicates that it's basically all tied up between Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich in the race for the GOP presidential nomination, with Gingrich on the rise and businessman Herman Cain falling due to the sexual harassment allegations he's been facing the past two weeks.

According to a CNN/ORC International Poll released Monday, 24% of Republicans and independents who lean towards the GOP say Romney is their most likely choice for their party's presidential nominee with Gingrich at 22%. Romney's two-point advantage is well within the survey's sampling error.

Rest of story HERE.

This is not good news for Romney, nor for the Republicans as a whole. Newt has already alienated his own people so much that they left his campaign in droves when Rick Perry looked like a possible front runner.

Now Perry is crashing, Cain is crashing, Christie has declined to run, Pawlenty is already out, and it looks like the primary schedule is precluding any serious efforts by anyone not already in the race.

This leaves Romney the effective front runner. Except that it's pretty clear that very large segments of the Republican base simply are not satisfied with Romney in that position. For if they were satisfied with Romney, then why do they keep latching on to whoever might knock Romney out of the top slot? No matter how much of a longshot that other person may be for the general election?

 

[Disgustipated]

It isn't good news. Newt is probably the most intelligent Republican, although that's not saying much. But it does show how divided the republicans are over Romney. They want anybody but him. But I think in the end, they will latch on to Romney, they have no other choice.

 

[Ajidica]

I can't see Gingrich being able to to hold the religious wing. His 'trade in for a newer model' marriages will alienate too many people.

 

[warpus]

When do the republican have to pick their presidential candidate by?

 

[Disgustipated]

The republican convention I would think.

 

[Cutlass]

When do the republican have to pick their presidential candidate by?

The primaries start in less than 2 months. The convention is in August. Some candidate may have things pretty well in hand by the middle of the primary season. But if none do, then the convention is when the decision will be made.

 

[Ice_Tyrant]

It seems like Newt is their last hope. I'm sure this is ridiculous, but sometimes I just wonder if Romney feels insulted that the base has looked at nearly everyone in an effort to get anybody else.

 

[Mr. Dictator]

And for my next trick, I'll turn a formerly respectable public office into a Newt.

 

[Ajidica]

I was turned into a Newt!
I got better.

 

[amadeus]

It'll be a good four years for the Democrats if Newt wins the nomination.

 

[Winner]

All seem stable except for Cain and this guy.

Gods the American politics is so crazy.

 

[JollyRoger]

He's the latest not-Romney, but he won't be able to out-non-Romney Romney in non-Romneying. I believe that Romney is the only one in the field with a stated position against all of Romney's positions.

 

[.Shane.]

It'll be a good four years for the Democrats if Newt wins the nomination.

He's the latest not-Romney, but he won't be able to out-non-Romney Romney in non-Romneying. I believe that Romney is the only one in the field with a stated position against all of Romney's positions.

And, tellingly, Romney is the only one who has a chance of beating Obama.

Its pretty amazing to me how the Republican party is so dominated by extreme interest groups and factions that any reasonable candidate gets no support or won't bother running. Romney's biggest skill seems to be perseverance.

 

[Yoda Power]

They only asked 480 people. If I recall my quantative methods classes, this is most likely not enough for it to be statistically significant.

Bottom-line: It's probably an incorrect poll.

 

[JollyRoger]

Newt has been gaining in just about every recent poll. Evidently, divorcing multiple women is less of a negative than groping multiple women.

 

[.Shane.]

Yoda, 400+ is probably statistically significant. At worst, its borderline. Where you'd see it matter the most is in the margin of error.

Plus, JR has it, its a consistent move from multiple polls.

 

[Mark1031]

Newt has no $$ or organization. He is not running a serious campaign. It will be Romney and he will be an odds on favorite to beat O. I actually have no idea what Obama will run on. The economy still sucks. He didn't change anything in DC. He has some legislative accomplishments but they were mucked up by the Repubs and Republidems(of which he is apparently one) and so poorly sold that I don't see how he runs on that. His only hope was to run as a sane candidate against a nut. Romney is not that and the Republican against the Republican-Lite incumbent at 9% unemployment and probably a further downturn next year goes to the Republican. I suppose he goes very negative and populist (after he rakes in as much corporate cash as he can) and we hear more than we want to know about Bain Capital and flip-flops. Incumbency is a huge advantage but given the mood and the current economics I got a bad feeling about this one Bob.

 

[Yoda Power]

Yoda, 400+ is probably statistically significant. At worst, its borderline. Where you'd see it matter the most is in the margin of error.

Hmm, ok if you say so. I'm still sceptic though, the change in only one month is quite big.

 

[.Shane.]

Hmm, ok if you say so. I'm still sceptic though, the change in only one month is quite big.

lol, don't get me wrong, I'm not saying it's gonna last.

Plus, what matters more is methodology.

 

[amadeus]

And, tellingly, Romney is the only one who has a chance of beating Obama.

It will still be the same (at least) four glorious years for them if Romney wins, too. I'm sure you can see where I'm going with this...