On reincarnation of God

Are you by any chance, a god watching this thread?


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Most atheists don't strictly believe there are no gods. They just don't believe in any of the ones they've been told about

i'm not going to assign literal 0 probability, because that would imply i wouldn't change my mind even if presented hard evidence of a deity.

what you say is correct..."believing there are no gods" is similar to "believing there are no perpetual motion machines". it's not a "strict" belief, because if i physically observed these and could be convinced i weren't tricked/deceived, i would have to update my belief about either of them. both are excluded by any model of reality that currently makes sense to me, but i can imagine evidence that would change my mind about them if i actually saw such evidence.
 
i'm not going to assign literal 0 probability, because that would imply i wouldn't change my mind even if presented hard evidence of a deity.
...

Actually you bring up a good point here. I want to focus on the words "0% probability".

How does one actually calculate the probability that God exists or not. What are the numerical data inputs? [probability is a mathematical equation that requires numbers to work]

Or when someone makes a statement that there is X probability that this is true/could happen/chances of something working or not etc., are they just talking out of the backside caboose?
 
Most atheists don't strictly believe there are no gods. They just don't believe in any of the ones they've been told about
This tracks with my understanding of being an atheist. I wouldn't necessarily extrapolate this outwards (especially considering the prominence of New Atheism and it's general offensive positioning on any concept of a god, to the point of ridiculing believers), but yeah, I agree with it personally.

For me, my personal line in the sand would be "I don't believe in any deity as posited by humankind" (at this point in time, barring irrefutable divine intervention, shift in belief systems, etc). It's tricky, because it involves both human interpretation of the divine, which is flawed by definition (and even noted in scripture), as well as the rejection of such an existence. But that's my line. Maybe there are deities out there we simply haven't come across yet. It's all about faith and finding reason in the universe. I get why people do it, I'm sympathetic even, but I don't share in that (construct of) faith.

Is there a scientific way of knowing whether the assertion is true or not? I know when I Google "killed" and "blasphemy" the results for which religion was involved are very predictable (but of course a google search is not science)!
Unfortunately it's probably very statistically-difficult. But to even make it without being able to prove it true is the bias I was bingo-ing, hah.

Like, for some people in certain areas of the world, being killed by a follower of Islam is likely to be higher than my risk of the same. But that's because of demographics. The victim is also more likely to be a Muslim, much like I'm more at risk of being killed by someone who is Christian, or Christian-adjacent (through into agnosticism). That's about as precise as I can make it. The question becomes whether or not you're killed because of the religious aspect, which is more legal than it is any other kind of argument. For example, there are horrendous conflicts unfolding across the world that have a religious backdrop, but the modern conflict is also cultural (at least) as much as it is due to differences in scripture, or offense caused in religious terms either way. Which also means it's political. I don't want to derail the thread with any explicit examples, but it should be clear that in any given conflict like that, the political and the cultural goes hand-in-hand, because of the impact religion has had either in a historical context, or in a modern one.

For a low-stakes example: England is / was predominantly Christian. Anglican apparently (Wikipedia link). Now as it stands I have a pretty low chance based on my life experience to be assaulted by an Anglican, or even a Christian, on religious grounds. But that is / was the status quo. Our cultural history is shaped by it (to the extent that everybody knows about Henry VIII and the Church of England, it's very well-covered in school. Or used to be at least).

So it comes back down to individual motive, most of the time. And when people say "I'm more likely to" (or less likely to), that's normally just because of in-group / out-group dynamics (plus bias, etc). Narz may think he has more to fear from a Muslim person than a Christian person, but if he were Muslim (or Hindu, or had different physical characteristics that set him apart visually), he may find he has a different opinion.

Certainly (and this bit isn't aimed at Narz because I don't know a huge amount about him), but if I lived in the US, my personal worry on that score wouldn't be "Muslims".
 
Actually you bring up a good point here. I want to focus on the words "0% probability".

How does one actually calculate the probability that God exists or not. What are the numerical data inputs? [probability is a mathematical equation that requires numbers to work]

Or when someone makes a statement that there is X probability that this is true/could happen/chances of something working or not etc., are they just talking out of the backside caboose?

Well, I went from being certain that the Christian God existed to doubting its existence due to evidence, so the probability I was assigning decreased over time.

I think it's very fair to say that it isn't 0%, even if somebody doesn't want to provide any of the math. All you need to not be zero is a plausible way that it's not zero.
 
0%, honestly, seems to be very anti science.
Idk, it seems very wrong in Bayesian probabilistic view which I believe, theorize about probability of a belief is true given evidences.
There's no rock solid evidence disprove the existence of god or deities.
If there exists an evidence that god can be exist, there's no way you can update your belief.
Humorously, most atheists I believe, strongly believe in science and proofs. It's my view on strong atheists.
P/s: I might be wrong about the math.
 
For any idea of god, the chance of it actually existing is literally 1/∞.
 
It's almost like it's not a math problem. Unless math is god. I suppose.
 
I do find it amusing when people take math as existing outside human standard creativity in some unique fashion.
 
It's almost like it's not a math problem. Unless math is god. I suppose.

It's a mathematical expression of the fact that your idea of god can be anything with no regard to logic, causality or any kind of order.
 
For any idea of god, the chance of it actually existing is literally 1/∞.

Not really, since there are a finite number of possible ideas. There are only so many possible combinations of thinking substrate. And there is a maximum distance information can be transmitted.
 
It's a mathematical expression of the fact that your idea of god can be anything with no regard to logic, causality or any kind of order.

<looks around> It's everything. Our logic is one little way we have of explaining parts of it.

Just like math, eh?
 
How does one actually calculate the probability that God exists or not.

similar to estimated probability for anything existing vs not. an estimate of what you expect to see vs what you don't expect to see.

this also implies some falsifiable claim/ability for god to influence the universe in any capacity whatsoever. as opposed to a non-falsifiable "x exists outside of existence and we will never anticipate it having any influence on this existence" type of setup.

Humorously, most atheists I believe, strongly believe in science and proofs. It's my view on strong atheists.

correct, this is why the reasonable estimate is near 0, but not quite 0. just in case some new evidence comes to light. it's about as likely as everyone being a d&d wizard tomorrow, but if we nevertheless observed people running around casting mephitic cloud for fun tomorrow we'd have no choice but to (sharply) change our model of reality.
 
How does one actually calculate the probability that God exists or not.
It's based on your model of reality.
For some, based on the evidence, it's near zero.
For some, based on the evidence, it's near one.
It depends on how you interpret the evidence.
For me, the evidence is irrelevant anyway.
I'm the kind of person who chooses to believe in whatever depends on my mood.
 
similar to estimated probability for anything existing vs not. an estimate of what you expect to see vs what you don't expect to see.
For God it is just a guess regardless of how much "thought" one puts into "calculating" a number.
 
It's based on your model of reality.
For some, based on the evidence, it's near zero.
For some, based on the evidence, it's near one.
It depends on how you interpret the evidence.
For me, the evidence is irrelevant anyway.
I'm the kind of person who chooses to believe in whatever depends on my mood.

I agree with you. The evidence is irrelevant as I also mentioned several pages ago.
 
For God it is just a guess regardless of how much "thought" one puts into "calculating" a number.

that misses the point of doing probability estimations though. if you don't have to guess, you don't need to estimate probability for practical purposes. for example, your estimate of whether you will still have your hand one nanosecond after you finish reading this sentence the first time is going to be "close enough" to "p=1", if you had your hand as you began reading it. so close that it's not worth bothering to calculate over and over.

it's not literally actually 1, maybe there's a meteor careening towards your house, that will crush your hand off right at the moment you finish reading the paragraph above. if you're really fast at thinking, and notice the meteor hitting your roof as you're reading the above sentence, you might even update your estimated probability of keeping your hand to something much lower than "virtually certain".

but that's probably not happening, and probably your hand is still going to be there. so probable that it's hard to grasp the odds to the contrary.

how likely do we estimate god to have a causal influence on our universe that we can observe/measure? somewhat less likely than the meteor crushing your hand off was above, but still not quite nothing. much higher if we start observing evidence.

if you do have to guess, there are big differences between "observe sound evidence of deity" vs "win a lotto jackpot" vs "it will rain tomorrow" vs "the sun will rise tomorrow". these are all "just guesses", but I suspect you make different types of guesses for each.
 
how likely do we estimate god to have a causal influence on our universe that we can observe/measure? somewhat less likely than the meteor crushing your hand off was above, but still not quite nothing. much higher if we start observing evidence.
Who is the "we"? There are many people, some of whom I know, who will answer 100% to your first question. They see it happen everyday and likely could count off instances. Observing and measuring. Your last phrase (bold) doesn't seem to make sense in the context of the previous statement.

The rest of your post was just senseless chatter.
 
They see it happen everyday and likely could count off instances. Observing and measuring.

nope, that's not what's happening.

if it were, those same people could explain precisely which empirical things we observe that we would not observe if god did not exist, but the world were otherwise the same. the "measurements" could then demonstrate the difference, and attach that difference to a causal influence.

they are not doing that, probably because they can't do that. because making claims with testable consequences carries a burden of observing those consequences.

Who is the "we"? There are many people, some of whom I know, who will answer 100% to your first question

if you are willing to accept their stance, i will point out that you have been presented identical amount of empirical evidence that i can decide what you type next using magic. and already have.

100% right? based on what? doesn't matter apparently.
 
nope, that's not what's happening.

if it were, those same people could explain precisely which empirical things we observe that we would not observe if god did not exist, but the world were otherwise the same. the "measurements" could then demonstrate the difference, and attach that difference to a causal influence.

they are not doing that, probably because they can't do that. because making claims with testable consequences carries a burden of observing those consequences.
When you choose the measurement standards that everyone must adhere to, you put your thumb on the scale to tip the balance in your favor. It is the easiest way to look like you have won the argument. There are times when one set of rules are important, but not always. Rules tend to be about some kind of winning or comparing. If the only way you can "win" a discussion is to insist that your rules must apply, you have already lost.

Who is the "we"....
if you are willing to accept their stance, i will point out that you have been presented identical amount of empirical evidence that i can decide what you type next using magic. and already have.

100% right? based on what? doesn't matter apparently.
Your response makes no sense to me at all.
 
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