Post-pandemic changes

[hobbsyoyo]

Do you genuinely believe that the US military is staffed by disgruntled Vietnam veterans?

The top brass, yeah there's still a lot of 'Nam vets around.

 

[Patine]

Sure am looking to more and more folks working out that endlessly bailing out private companies like Boeing don't actually do much for the economy.

And then some anti-"pork budget," big-spending (except on military and unaccountable alphabet soup agencies), minimal government (except intrusive surveillance/police state policies) types will decry the bailouts as "left-wing," policies like they did in 2008/2009 (even though corporate bailouts, in the way they're done, how they work, who directly gets the bailout money, and the end goals and agendas of them, are highly right-wing economic policies).

 

[hobbsyoyo]

I used this same phrase in a recent post because it's been kicking around in my head a lot:

There but for the grace of God, go I.

It is my hope that this crisis creates more empathy for people going forward. After '08, it was all too easy to blame the laid-off for picking bad careers or the evicted homeowners for buying too big of a house. There was practically no empathy for anyone coming out of that crisis and thus very little was done to make much needed changes to our socioeconomic system.

It is hard to blame the GameStop clerks for being laid off due to the virus. It is hard to blame the bartenders that are now out of work for getting evicted when they can't stay up on rent. I think that this virus is a massive lesson in the underlying inequalities of our system and its downright unfairness. It's not that I think this crisis will turn a bunch of Boomer-Karens into Bernie-Bros, but I think the opposition to things like universal healthcare and unemployment insurance will take a nose dive, and this will enable more far-reaching structural change to be on the table in a big way. I don't know if we'll get universal income out of this but I expect the social safety net to be drastically expanded and made more fair.

I also expect the military's budget to take a fairly substantial hit to pay for this.

 

[The_J]

I’m wondering whether visa-free travel between countries will become a thing of the past, and if we’re headed towards more the way it used to be except with more thorough health inspections.

Only if the virus stays, I'd say.
Because if not, then there's just no good reason, and it's easier after all without checks.

 

[Lexicus]

I hope that the strain on political systems becomes acute, leading to their collapse and revolution, similar to what happened to the Tsarist government of Russia at the end of World War I. But what I think will actually happen is a prolonged period of economic depression as the pace of growing inequality only quickens. Much higher unemployment and much lower standard of living for the poor will be accepted as the new normal. The rich retreat further into metaphorical and physical isolation.

 

[hobbsyoyo]

I hope that the strain on political systems becomes acute, leading to their collapse and revolution, similar to what happened to the Tsarist government of Russia at the end of World War I. But what I think will actually happen is a prolonged period of economic depression as the pace of growing inequality only quickens. Much higher unemployment and much lower standard of living for the poor will be accepted as the new normal. The rich retreat further into metaphorical and physical isolation.

Please be wrong

 

[innonimatu]

Only if the virus stays, I'd say.
Because if not, then there's just no good reason, and it's easier after all without checks.

Easier usually also means unsafer, and that is the case here. The system of easy international travel built on lack of checks was what allowed the easy and quick spread of this virus all around the world. The inertia of the existing system was what prevented effective measures being taken early.
It is unfit for use because this can and will happen again. Should be changed. The cost if its failure modes is too great compared to the advantages.

Please be wrong

There's also an alternative possible outcome that I think likely if this lasts for a few months: "war-time economy" similar to ww2 (and post-ww2 reconstruction) era, and the same kind of social changes it bought about. Thing the enshrining into law and customs of social democracy/new deal style changes. We know it won't last eternally, but we also know it stuck for a generation (was only dismantles starting in the 1970s).

So far I think it more likely that we'll live though that kind of "post-ww2 change" than though a "russian revolution style" one, if only because democracy is still operational and ultimately politicians have a desperate sense of self-preservation, just hampered by an inability to see far. As @Lexicus mentioned, it kind of depends on how well or how badly this is handled politically. If governments do try to pull another 2008, I don't believe they'll be lucky this time.

 

[innonimatu]

I'm also going to say, the next election in the US will be one of the most decisive ever. The world is at one of those crossroads where things can go wildly different depending on choices now.

I thing the one outcome that grantees the scenario Lexicus mentioned will be a Biden/Clinton victory. Neither a still possible Sanders victory not even a Trump victory would, one genuinely wants to change things, the other will do whatever it takes to preserve himself in power by being just enough populist. But a Biden victory will place in power an "Obama 3" administration bent on imposing the same crap that was done post-2008. In a situation and population that just can't take it. It's not a matter of not wanting to take it, it's a matter of survival - they can't take that again.

In that scenario the rest of the world will move independently of the US. Meaning that it's over for the Atlantic alliance. Europe will be forced to go its own way, due to its own internal political pressures, and Japan will desert the fallen hegemon. How the international scene will recompose is impossible to guess.
If it goes that way, this time will be a subject for alternative history exercises for centuries to come. "What would have happened if the virus had struck just two weeks before it did?"

 

[Lexicus]

if only because democracy is still operational

That may be the case in Portugal, but it is not really the case in the US.

If governments do try to pull another 2008, I don't believe they'll be lucky this time.

They are already announcing unprecedented measures to bail out financial sector and other corporate sectors - for example did you happen to see the Bank of England's announcement of a "COVID-19 Corporate Financing Facility" which is of unlimited size, and under the terms of which HM Treasury will indemnify the BoE from any losses?

Spoiler :

It's amazing that people will watch things like this happen and still claim that a currency-issuing government does not have access to infinite amounts of its own currency - no one, but no one, is asking how this will be paid for, but it basically reveals austerity and much of the public debate around the costs of Corbyn's proposals to be a complete sham!

I thing the one outcome that grantees the scenario Lexicus mentioned will be a Biden/Clinton victory. Neither a still possible Sanders victory not even a Trump victory would, one genuinely wants to change things, the other will do whatever it takes to preserve himself in power by being just enough populist. But a Biden victory will place in power an "Obama 3" administration bent on imposing the same crap that was done post-2008. In a situation and population that just can't take it. It's not a matter of not wanting to take it, it's a matter of survival - they can't take that again.

Yeah, I've actually had the same thought in recent days. I agree with your reading that Trump is likely to be willing to do things the Democrats aren't, because he is not blinded by the same ideological fetters they are. And if that is indeed how things play out I would guess it will drastically accelerate the US' gradual transition to an openly autocratic form of government.

 

[Patine]

I hope that the strain on political systems becomes acute, leading to their collapse and revolution, similar to what happened to the Tsarist government of Russia at the end of World War I. But what I think will actually happen is a prolonged period of economic depression as the pace of growing inequality only quickens. Much higher unemployment and much lower standard of living for the poor will be accepted as the new normal. The rich retreat further into metaphorical and physical isolation.

Sudden, violent revolutions rarely (read: almost never) lead to objectively better governing styles in the long-run.

 

[Cloud_Strife]

Sudden, violent revolutions rarely (read: almost never) lead to objectively better governing styles in the long-run.

Cuba.

 

[Farm Boy]

No, but sometimes there is enough desperation that the suppressed rapist murderers get enough of the reigns to throw off that which stymies thier inclinations for a while. The short term improvement relies on the status quo being worse than the predictable horrors of literal war, the long term improvement relies more on generational shifts than the atrocities of thier fathers.

 

[innonimatu]

Cuba.

Speaking of which, they seem way behind the curve on virus cases, but taking too long to close borders. The unexpected benefits of being embargoed, but the problems of having become part of the global tourism industry and depending on it. Slow government reaction there also.

 

[Patine]

Easier usually also means unsafer, and that is the case here. The system of easy international travel built on lack of checks was what allowed the easy and quick spread of this virus all around the world. The inertia of the existing system was what prevented effective measures being taken early.
It is unfit for use because this can and will happen again. Should be changed. The cost if its failure modes is too great compared to the advantages.

The emergency measures of the Corona Virus will be followed by the world regnancy and rulership of the non-existent, but very prevelant, Prince of Nigeria, through quite another set of viruses...

 

[Patine]

Cuba.

My brother has worked in Cuba. It's not what you may fantisize it as being.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

What this crisis will reveal is how hollowed out our state has become, under successive GOP governments, as well as the failure of democrats to repair and stem the systemic rot ushered in by the Republicans.

Thing about that systemic rot is that it is a lot harder to repair than a lot of people credit it for being. Mechanisms put in place to expand wealth disparity by Reagan are still serving that function today because whether they really like it or not Democrat administrations in those rare brief windows of opportunity have to take a "put out blazing fires first" approach. By the time the Clinton administration had the immediately dangerous infernos tamped down the GOP had enough power to prevent any actual repairs. Then the Bush administration lit a bunch more fires, as well as doubling down on the wealth disparity mechanisms and the Obama administration again managed to prevent the total collapse thet was on the plate they were handed, but was hamstrung before much in the way of serious repairs could be undertaken...and it only took two years for the GOP to undo that and yet again redouble the wealth disparity machinery.

If you want to see actual repairs we are going to have to put the Democrats in control for an extended period, even if they are not our "favorite" democrats. I mean, full control; house, senate, white house. And I mean a really extended period. A few years to put out the infernos, followed by a few more years to dismantle the structures of long term damage production, followed by a few more years to install some quality structures for moving forward.

 

[Takhisis]

I think that revealed long ago to anyone with a brain, there's a certain sense of denial. That said, there's nothing that'll stop the denial from returning after the whole mess is over. The most crippling blame will likely be put elsewhere (like China would be an easy target to the drooling masses who drink up scapegoating techniques).

That is because people have been trained to see things in binary terms. Yes, China's actions are the cause of this catastrophe. But also in the individual countries otuside of China the actions of the local authorities, who wanted to keep the same social interactions that enable transmission of the disease going ‘because economy! don't panic!’ and are now trying to backtrack and stem the damage are equally guilty. But I see many operations designed to convince the respective local populations that a certain ‘other’ is to blame (former governments, foreigners, ideologies, etc., see my dean of social science in the main virus thread) and people are idiots.

Cuba.

Yeah, its dehomosexualisation camps worked out for the best.

 

[Takhisis]

If you want to see actual repairs we are going to have to put the Democrats in control for an extended period, even if they are not our "favorite" democrats. I mean, full control; house, senate, white house. And I mean a really extended period. A few years to put out the infernos, followed by a few more years to dismantle the structures of long term damage production, followed by a few more years to install some quality structures for moving forward.

It's a full reconstruction in terms of a few decades at least.

 

[Zardnaar]

I hope that the strain on political systems becomes acute, leading to their collapse and revolution, similar to what happened to the Tsarist government of Russia at the end of World War I. But what I think will actually happen is a prolonged period of economic depression as the pace of growing inequality only quickens. Much higher unemployment and much lower standard of living for the poor will be accepted as the new normal. The rich retreat further into metaphorical and physical isolation.

What came after the Tsarist government murdered more people than all the other Tsars put together.

A smarter Tsar would have made concessions and transitioned to a constitutional monarchy.

Or reformed earlier. Not gone to war etc.

 

[Zardnaar]

It's a full reconstruction in terms of a few decades at least.

Well they got around 20 years starting with FDR. Didn't always have complete control.

Trump Hoover 2.0?