[RD] Russia Invades Ukraine: Eight

[Thorgalaeg]

That work both ways...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...kraine-poll-shows?embedded-checkout=true=true

People opinion in Russia matters zero however, as a year latter war continues, let's see that happens when they reach a million casualties, which doesn't seem very far away.

 

[Snowygerry]

So if everybody wants to negotiations why is there still a war going on ?

Russia preparing to retaliate after it says Ukraine hit it with US-made missiles – as it happened

Moscow says it is preparing measures after Ukraine twice fired Atacms missiles into the Kursk region in past three days

www.theguardian.com

 

[Kyriakos]

Because for the time being Ukraine doesn't wish to agree on signing over all the land Russia declared in its parliament as part of Russia (the eastern oblasts).
But even if we assume there will be minor concessions (against Russia's demands), they will be symbolic. The war probably will be over in a couple of months.

Only "good" in this for Ukraine is that it managed to avoid becoming landlocked. But Odessa may still pose an issue, particularly if the country collapses demographically after the war. The region will now be Ukraine's only port, and it has pro-russians too.

 

[EnglishEdward]

In my opinion:

(1) The only chance Ukraine ever had of winning the war and recapturing its lost eastern
provinces including Crimea was that if it became a general world war and their side prevailed.

(2) The only chance Ukraine had of achieving a draw and retaining its Ukrainian majority
territories was if the west re-industrialised and built up a war economy "arsenal of democracy".

But the west doesn't want to go to war itself (a) and has not been prepared to (b) upscale its armaments industry
because that would entail its governments overruling their de facto masters the financial capitalist classes.

So the Ukrainian populace is quite likely (and I have doubts about such opinion polls) looking for a peace.

However I fear the Russian leadership has quite likely come to like its perpetual war economy
and has become a prisoner of its own patriotic methodology, and scenting victory is unlikely to agree
any compromise recognising the existence of an independent Ukraine albeit smaller than in 1991.

 

[Snowygerry]

I doubt it, as you state above - the clearly stated goal of the war was to install a pro-Russian government in Kiev, that question was not even asked in the poll.

And the Russian army is no closer to that goal than it was in 2022.

 

[Kyriakos]

War goals change. When the quick assault against Kiev failed, and war continued for years, Russia changed its goal to annexing lands instead of installing a puppet government.

 

[Snowygerry]

That's what you say, I'd have to hear it from the Russian government before I believe it, even then I likely won't

 

[Gedemon]

there is also the issue of "denazification" and disarmament from the Russian point of view, that has not changed and was reminded recently (posted some time ago)

 

[Kyriakos]

there is also the issue of "denazification" and disarmament from the Russian point of view, that has not changed and was reminded recently (posted some time ago)

No side goes to war stating that it is greedy. They use more palatable lines. It doesn't mean the government, or even the public, believe them or care about them.

That's what you say, I'd have to hear it from the Russian government before I believe it, even then I likely won't

They told you already, more than a year ago when they declared by act of parliament that those oblasts are part of Russia.

 

[Snowygerry]

It is not like Russia is short on land is it ? Most of Russia is empty space. That is a very unlikely reason for them to go to war imho.

Must have been something else.

 

[Kyriakos]

It's a strategic location and has large russian populations. It's not some more steppe in central Asia.
Though I suppose you knew that, so.

 

[Snowygerry]

The "Russian" populations are not as large as they once were I imagine, or they wouldn't be importing N.Koreans.

The “Russian Minority in Donbas” and the History of the Majority

Much is made of the “Russian minority” in Donbas. But a closer look at the complex lives of people and forces at play in the region—in the Soviet period and since—makes clear just how much this concept obscures.

www.iwm.at

These are not the flourishing 1960s and 1970s that Donetsk locals recollect now as their city’s best days. Still overwhelmed by pain, they recall 2012, the year of the European football championship, which Donetsk co-hosted. This place without history that emerged from workers’ barracks suddenly turned into a supermodern megapolis, the shining city of the future. Now this future has been repeatedly tortured, raped, looted, vandalized, exiled, killed, demolished under Orwellian slogans about the protection of Donbas “Russians.”

But we best stick to news here, not analysis. And for the moment the news is still "war" not "negotiations".

 

[Gedemon]

No side goes to war stating that it is greedy. They use more palatable lines. It doesn't mean the government, or even the public, believe them or care about them.

yet they've said it very clearly

Telephone conversation with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz

www.en.kremlin.ru

Speaking on the prospects for reaching a political and diplomatic settlement of the conflict, the President of Russia pointed out that the Russian side had never rejected and was still open to resuming the talks broken off by the Kiev regime. Russia's proposals are well known and have been outlined, in particular, in the President’s speech at the Foreign Ministry in June. Any possible agreements must address security concerns of the Russian Federation, rest on the new territorial realities, and, most importantly, eliminate the original causes of the conflict.

-------

you'll find the full June's speech here

https://www.mid.ru/en/press_service/video/view/1957107/

And I will reiterate: once Kiev agrees to the course of action proposed today, including the full withdrawal of its troops from the DPR, LPR, the Zaporozhye and Kherson regions, and begins this process earnestly, we are prepared to commence negotiations promptly without delay.

I repeat our firm stance: Ukraine should adopt a neutral, non-aligned status, be nuclear-free, and undergo demilitarisation and denazification. These parameters were broadly agreed upon during the Istanbul negotiations in 2022, including specific details on demilitarisation such as the agreed numbers of tanks and other military equipment. We reached consensus on all points.

 

[Snowygerry]

There you have it, straight from the horse's mouth has they say

 

[Kyriakos]

yet they've said it very clearly

How do you mean? They used "more palatable" terms, not "we are greedy". If people wish to believe that the russian government actually went into the war because they cared about "de-nazification", instead of that being the usual type of pretext, they are free to do so but imo they would be rather... not running for a medal in logic.
As always, countries don't do stuff out of ethical reasons. People do stuff, on occasion, due to ethical reasons.

 

[Snowygerry]

I honestly believe Putin cares about "de-nazification" yes, and he's the one that started the war after all.

That is ofcourse because he is a raving madman, traumatized by events of 1989, probably also suffering from some form of dementia by now.

No I don't think this war will end untill he's dead and buried.

 

[Akka]

It is not like Russia is short on land is it ? Most of Russia is empty space. That is a very unlikely reason for them to go to war imho.

Must have been something else.

Imperialism, power and desire to get back what you feel is yours are reason enough. Putin wants Tsarist Russia/Soviet Union territories and sphere of influence back, it's been pretty clear for a long time now.

 

[Gedemon]

How do you mean? They used "more palatable" terms, not "we are greedy". If people wish to believe that the russian government actually went into the war because they cared about "de-nazification", instead of that being the usual type of pretext, they are free to do so but imo they would be rather... not running for a medal in logic.
As always, countries don't do stuff out of ethical reasons. People do stuff, on occasion, due to ethical reasons.

I never said they were "greedy", or that they went to war because of "nazi", no need for a strawman here, and you conveniently forgot the part about "disarmament" (and "neutrality", "not nuclear", "non aligned", ie EU and NATO)

What I'm pointing is that for Russia, "new territorial reality" is what is "new" in their demands, but not the most important part for them.

Now that could be a part of negotiations already (asking more than what can be realistically asked, and looking like the reasonable party when you settle on less), but that demand is factual, not interpretation.

 

[Kyriakos]

I never said they were "greedy", or that they went to war because of "nazi", no need for a strawman here, and you conveniently forgot the part about "disarmament" (and "neutrality", "not nuclear", "non aligned", ie EU and NATO)

What I'm pointing is that for Russia, "new territorial reality" is what is "new" in their demands, but not the most important part for them.

Now that could be a part of negotiations already (asking more than what can be realistically asked, and looking like the reasonable party when you settle on less), but that demand is factual, not interpretation.

You said it yourself; you enter negotiations by making up more demands you don't expect to be met at all, so that it can be said that you dropped them and supposedly "compromised".

British man captured by Russia while fighting with Ukraine

A video posted online shows a man in military clothing identify himself as James Scott Rhys Anderson, 22.

www.bbc.com

He was a member of the "Ukraine foreign legion", and former member of the british army (up to 2023).

 

[red_elk]

How many russians die doesn't matter to russians, so it's beating a dead horse imo. They are (for their own reasons) viewing this war as a patriotic one, and will celebrate the new territories as a return to previous borders (again, doesn't matter what non-russians think there).

It does matter, no less than how many Ukrainians die matters to Ukrainians.
Russian MoD estimation for daily Ukrainian military casualties is in the same ballpark, 1500-2000.
Absolute numbers, aside of propaganda from both sides, are unknown, but it's safe to assume Ukrainian casualties are higher, due to significant Russian superiority in artillery and air forces.

What many commenters here fail to understand is that while war weariness and casualties affect Russian society, this applies also to Ukrainian one. And to significantly larger degree, as news about men drowning in the river while trying to escape from the country, thugs abducting men right from the streets, etc., now appear even in Western media.