[RD] Russia Invades Ukraine: Eight

Embargo historically would have been physically enforced, by a navy for example.

It's meaning has varied over time, if say a document was not to be released until after 6pm, that is also called an embargo.
 

Two dead and many injured in Russian strike on Ukrainian shopping centre​

At least two people have been killed and a further 27 injured following a Russian air strike on a shopping centre and market in the town of Dobropillia in Ukraine's eastern Donetsk region, officials have said.

More than 50 shops, 300 apartments and eight cars were damaged in the attack on Wednesday evening, regional governor Vadym Filashkin said on Telegram.

In his nightly address, President Volodymyr Zelensky described the strike as "simply horrific" and said there was "no military logic" to it. Russia has not commented.

It comes as the US special envoy to Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, is in Kyiv on a week-long trip to discuss US-Ukrainian co-operation with Zelensky.

"The Russians have again deliberately targeted an area where there are lots of people - a shopping centre in the middle of town," governor Filashkin wrote on Telegram on Wednesday.

"This time with a 500-kg (1,100-pound) air bomb."

Filashkin said the bomb had been dropped at 17:20 local time (14:20 GMT) when the area was busy with people out shopping.

Situated 20km (12 miles) from the frontline, and north-east of the city of Pokrovsk - a focal point of Russia's slow advance through the Donetsk region - Dobropillia has been subject to other attacks since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

In March, a rocket, drone and missile attack killed 11 people in the town, including five children.

Meanwhile, Moscow's Mayor Sergei Sobyanin said Russia's defence ministry had shot down three drones flying towards the capital in the early hours of Thursday morning.

He said emergency service were working at the site of the wreckage but he did not mention casualties. Ukraine has not commented on the strikes.

It comes after US President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that Ukraine should not target Moscow with strikes, after the Financial Times reported that Trump on 4 July had privately encouraged Ukraine to escalate attacks on Russia.

Russia has escalated its drone and missile strikes across Ukraine in recent weeks, killing more than 230 civilians in June, according to the United Nations - the largest number killed in a month during the three years of war.

Trump has been growing increasingly frustrated that his efforts to end the war have not amounted to a ceasefire or a significant breakthrough.

Following a meeting with Nato chief Mark Rutte in Washington on Monday, Trump said he was "disappointed" with Vladimir Putin and the fact that his "very nice phone calls" with the Russian president are often followed by air strikes on Ukraine.

"After that happens three or four times you say: the talk doesn't mean anything," Trump said.

He warned he would impose severe sanctions on Moscow if a peace deal was not reached within 50 days.

The US president also announced that the US would send "top-of-the-line weapons" to Kyiv via Nato countries to ensure "Ukraine can do what it wants to do."
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c62d17ld032o
 
Another round of bodies exchange. 1000 returned by Russia, 19 by Ukraine.

More than 500 cases of chemical weapons usage by Ukrainian armed forces since 2022, according to Russia.
 
Almost sounds like complaining the enemy is shooting back, if the Russian army would just stop invading neighbouring countries none of all this would be necessary.

Analysis: Kremlin 'recycling longstanding narratives' to try and break US from Ukraine - ISW​

The Kremlin is recycling several longstanding informational narratives to try and break the US away from Ukraine and NATO, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reports
 
Almost sounds like complaining the enemy is shooting at civilians when you are doing the same.
Moderator Action: Warned for trolling. The_J
 
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Hungarian PM accused Ukrainian authorities of beating a Hungarian-Ukrainian dual citizen to death during his mobilization in the Ukrainian military. Hungary on Thursday banned three Ukrainian military officials from its territory, as diplomatic relations between the neighboring countries rapidly deteriorate.
https://apnews.com/article/hungary-bans-ukrainian-officials-093463321708a207e181c0c984c4c55a

According to Ukraine’s embassy in Budapest, the cause of death was a pulmonary embolism:
“We categorically reject any allegations of forced conscription, mistreatment, or human rights violations” committed by any Ukrainian military officials, the statement said, adding that Ukraine is open to a “transparent investigation.”
https://apnews.com/article/hungary-...-death-orban-f986f42b9dec146c8d459c0248ecfa1b

Meanwhile, local citizens continue to post videos confirming that no forced conscription or mistreatment can ever happen in Ukraine.
https://t.me/ASupersharij/42959
https://t.me/ASupersharij/43033
 
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Meanwhile, local citizens continue to post videos confirming that no forced conscription or mistreatment can ever happen in Ukraine.
https://t.me/ASupersharij/42959
https://t.me/ASupersharij/43033
We had this conversation earlier in this thread.

Conscription is, by definition, forced. Violators are prosecuted, again, usually by physical force.

Not saying wrong or right. Just saying most states will do the same when under attack.

I suppose surrender is possible, but the Russian state has to convince that Russian authorities will not do the same.
 
We had this conversation earlier in this thread.

Conscription is, by definition, forced. Violators are prosecuted, again, usually by physical force.

Not saying wrong or right. Just saying most states will do the same when under attack.

I suppose surrender is possible, but the Russian state has to convince that Russian authorities will not do the same.
Conscription done right is a matter of solidarity. Part of the Soviet legacy Ukraine needs to overcome is the corruption nerfing the basic principle of solidarity.
 

Kill Russian soldiers, win points: Is Ukraine's new drone scheme gamifying war?​

The images come in every day. Thousands of them.

Men and equipment being hunted down along Ukraine's long, contested front lines. Everything filmed, logged and counted.

And now put to use too, as the Ukrainian military tries to extract every advantage it can against its much more powerful opponent.

Under a scheme first trialled last year and dubbed "Army of Drones: Bonus" (also known as "e-points"), units can earn points for each Russian soldier killed or piece of equipment destroyed.

And like a killstreak in Call of Duty, or a 1970s TV game show, points mean prizes.

"The more strategically important and large-scale the target, the more points a unit receives," reads a statement from the team at Brave 1, which brings together experts from government and the military.

"For example, destroying an enemy multiple rocket launch system earns up to 50 points; 40 points are awarded for a destroyed tank and 20 for a damaged one."

Call it the gamification of war.

Each uploaded video is now carefully analysed back in Kyiv, where points are awarded according to a constantly evolving set of military priorities.

"I think, first and foremost, it's about quality data, the mathematics of war, and understanding how to use limited resources more effectively," says the man behind the e-points scheme, Mykhailo Fedorov, Ukraine's Minister of Digital Transformation.

But after three and a half long years of grinding, all-out war, the system has another vital use.

"It's also about motivation," Fedorov says. "When we change the point values, we can see how motivation changes."

Fedorov's office sports a huge video screen with dozens of live feeds from Ukrainian drones flying over the front lines.

Together, the feeds provide a vivid glimpse into Ukraine's drone war, in which commanders claim flying robots now account for an estimated 70% of all Russian deaths and injuries.

Since the early days of Russia's full-scale invasion, social media feeds have been full of drone videos, usually set to soundtracks of thudding heavy metal music.

The turret of a tank, exploding in a ball of flame. A lone soldier, fending off an attacking drone with a rifle or a stick.

It can make for gruesome viewing. Each video celebrating the death of an opponent. The video going fuzzy as the drone explodes.

But beyond a sense of grim satisfaction, hard-pressed front-line units now operate in the knowledge that evidence of their exploits can bring them rewards.

The BBC reached out to more than a dozen units to find out what front line soldiers make of the scheme. The responses were mixed.

"In general, my comrades and I are positive," said Volodymyr, a soldier from the 108th Territorial Defence Brigade. He asked us not to use his surname.

At a time when frontline units are burning through equipment, especially attack drones, at a ferocious rate, Volodymyr says the e-points scheme is proving useful.

"This is a way to make up for what we lose… while inflicting losses on the enemy as effectively as possible."

The 22nd Mechanised Brigade, currently fighting in the north-east of the country, has had about three months to get used to the new system.

"Once we figured out how it works, it turned out to be quite a decent system," said a soldier from the 22nd with the callsign Jack.

"Our lads are worn out, and nothing really motivates them anymore," Jack said. "But this system helps. The drones are provided through this programme, and the lads get rewarded. It's a decent motivation."

But others are less convinced.

"The fundamental issue of motivation isn't resolved by this," said a soldier who asked only to be identified by his callsign, Snake.

"Points won't stop people fleeing from the military."

A soldier who identified himself as Dymytro sent us a lengthy response in which he complained that units were spending too much time trying to claim each other's hits or would deliberately attack a Russian vehicle that had already been disabled, in order to earn more points.

For Dymytro, the whole concept seemed morally dubious.

"This system is just a result of our twisted mental habit of turning everything into profit," Dymytro complained, "even our own damned death."

But the e-points scheme is typical of the way Ukraine has fought this war: creative, out-of-the-box thinking designed to make the most of the country's innovative skills and minimise the effect of its numerical disadvantage.

Fedorov says 90-95% of fighting units are now participating, providing a steady stream of useful data.

"We've started receiving quality information and making decisions based on it," he says.

"By collecting data, we can propose changes, but the foundation is always military strategy."

In an anonymous office block in Kyiv, we met some of the analysts whose job it is to pore over the footage, verify each hit and award points to the unit responsible.

We were asked not to reveal the location or use real names.

"We have two categories: hit and destroyed," Volodia told us. "So a different amount of e-points goes to the different categories."

It turns out that encouraging a Russian soldier to surrender is worth more points than killing one – a prisoner of war can always be used in future deals over prisoner exchanges.

"If for one… killed Russian you get one point," Volodia said, "if you capture him you multiply it by 10."

Volodia's team analyses thousands of hits every day.

"The hardest part is artillery," he said, showing us a video of a drone navigating expertly through the trees and into a trench where a gun is concealed.

"The Russians are very good at hiding and digging."

As Russia's tactics have evolved, so too has the e-points system.

Moscow's increased use of small, probing units, on foot or riding motorbikes, means that the value of an individual soldier has risen, relative to a tank or other armoured vehicle.

"Whereas previously the killing of an enemy soldier earned 2 points," the Brave 1 statement read, "now it earns 6."

And enemy drone operators are always more valuable than the drones themselves.

The system of rewards is being refined too.

Until now, units have been able to convert their points into cash, which many have used, along with crowd sourcing, to purchase badly needed extra equipment.

Now the e-points system is being directly integrated into something called the Brave 1 Market, which designers describe as "the Amazon for war".

Soldiers can browse more than 1,600 products, use their accumulated points, purchase items directly from manufacturers and leave reviews, with the Ministry of Defence picking up the tab afterwards.

Brave 1 Market is designed to sit alongside traditional, cumbersome military procurement, rather than replace it. The hope is that units will have quicker access to preferred items, from drones to components and unmanned ground vehicles (UGVs) that can evacuate wounded soldiers from dangerous frontline positions.

Points for kills. Amazon for war. To some ears, it might all sound brutal, even callous.

But this is war and Ukraine is determined to hold on. By fighting as effectively, and efficiently as it can.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c80p9k1r1dlo
 
Given the slower pace of the war atm I think it is a good strategy. Keeping score focuses attention on what is important (higher value hits). And yes, it also dehumanizes it some, but less than massive artillery bombardments on cities....
 
Assuming it's not a fake, no reason for Russia not to do the same and start awarding "points" for killing enemy soldiers and destroying equipment.
 
Assuming it's not a fake, no reason for Russia not to do the same and start awarding "points" for killing enemy soldiers and destroying equipment.
You left out the part about more points for capturing than killing.
 
Assuming it's not a fake, no reason for Russia not to do the same and start awarding "points" for killing enemy soldiers and destroying equipment.

Points for units to spend sounds better than awarding money to individuals that both sides used at the beginning of the war.

 
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Russia is making so many Iranian Shahed drones that it could soon launch 2,000 of them in a single night​

  • Western analysis says Russia is pushing for a capability of launching 2,000 Shahed drones in one salvo.
  • Ukraine has been barraged with growing numbers of one-way attack drones, reaching up to 728 a night.
  • With the Kremlin surging Shahed production, Ukraine and its allies will need cheaper air defenses.

The Kremlin is building its way toward a reality where it can soon launch 2,000 Shahed one-way attack drones in one night, according to two recent Western assessments.

Maj. Gen. Christian Freuding, the German defense ministry's commander of planning and command staff, said in a Bundeswehr interview aired on Saturday that Russia was "striving to further increase production capacity" of its Shaheds.

"They want to expand the drone attacks we just talked about," Freuding said. "The ambition is to be able to deploy 2,000 drones simultaneously."

"We need to consider intelligent countermeasures," he added.

In a separate assessment on Sunday, the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think tank, wrote that Russia's per-night use of Shahed drones increased by 31% each month in June and July.

"ISW assesses that Russia may be able to launch up to 2,000 drones in one night by November 2025, should this current growth trend in drone usage continue," its analysts wrote.

However, they added that Russia likely wouldn't be able to consistently sustain 2,000 drone launches per day.

Still, such capacity would be a stark jump from the fall of 2024, when Russia was launching roughly 2,000 drones a month at Ukraine.

Shaheds are long-range Iranian exploding drones with estimated ranges of 600 to 1,200 miles, depending on the design. This year, Russia has continually increased the number of Shaheds and decoy drones it launches a night at Ukraine, recently peaking at 728 uncrewed aerial vehicles in one salvo earlier this month.

Russia's Shahed production on the rise​

As these numbers surge, Ukraine and its allies fear that Russia's nightly attacks will overwhelm Kyiv's air defenses.

"There will be 1,000 units per day and more. I'm not trying to scare anyone," wrote Robert "Madyar" Brovdi, commander of Ukraine's Unmanned Systems Forces, wrote on July 4 about Russia's Shahed capacity.

The Shahed is of Iranian design, but Russia has also been manufacturing its own versions of the drone locally in the Yelabuga Special Economic Zone since early 2023. Western governments and analysts say some vital parts for production come from China.

In April, analysts from the International Institute for Strategic Studies wrote that satellite imagery showed that the area of Shahed-producing facilities has doubled since 2023.

"Despite a steady flow of Shahed-136s from Iran, Moscow is heavily investing in its own production facilities," the IISS analysts wrote.

Ukraine has periodically tried to strike Yelabuga with its own long-range fixed-wing drones, but it's unclear if the factories have sustained any significant damage.

Kyiv's military intelligence also said in February that it had found production markings on some attack drones that mention the city of Izhevsk, possibly pointing to another production line there.

NATO and Ukraine need cheaper defenses​

Freuding, the German general, said that against such quantity, it would be nonsensical to rely on expensive Western interceptors such as the Patriot system to destroy Shaheds.

"We essentially need countermeasures that cost two, three, four thousand euros," he said. By comparison, a single Patriot system costs the US government $1.1 billion, and one of its missiles can cost about $4 million.

Ukraine now uses a multilayered air defense network against Shahed waves, including surface-to-air missiles, air-launched missiles, and mobile fire groups that try to shoot down the Iranian drones with machine guns. A locally made interceptor drone, the Sting, is becoming popular, too.

But Russia also fires ballistic missiles in tandem with the Shahed drones, and these require more advanced, long-range air defenses such as the Patriot to intercept. Kyiv is trying to persuade the US and its allies to provide it with more Patriot systems.
 

Zelensky’s war on Ukraine’s anti-corruption agencies is a disaster​

Cries of ‘Shame!’ rang out in the Rada, Ukraine’s parliament, today as lawmakers from Volodymyr Zelensky’s Servant of the People Party, backed by most opposition parties, voted to bring key independent anti-corruption agencies under government control. The new law, which was backed by 263 lawmakers with just 26 opposing or abstaining, has sparked widespread condemnation from many politicians and civil society activists who had previously been loyal champions of Zelensky’s. The dismemberment of the national anti-corruption bureau (NABU) and the special anti-corruption prosecutor’s office (SAPO) has also caused deep disquiet among Ukraine’s leading international backers.

‘Seriously concerned over today’s vote in the Rada,’ tweeted European Commissioner for Enlargement Marta Kos. ‘The dismantling of key safeguards protecting NABU’s independence is a serious step back. Independent bodies like NABU and SAPO, are essential for Ukraine’s EU path. Rule of law remains in the very centre of EU accession negotiations.’

Toomas Hendrik Ilves, president of Estonia from 2006-12, described the move as ‘a complete disaster’ that will ‘fuel all those in Europe who think helping Ukraine is pointless, not to mention the whole Russian narrative of Ukrainians just stealing the West’s assistance for private enrichment, a narrative we have fought for years.’

The Rada vote came days after Ukraine’s security service carried out 70 simultaneous raids on senior investigators from the NABU and SAPO agencies, reportedly without court warrants. They also searched the home of Vitaliy Shabunin, head of the anti-corruption action centre (AntAC) independent NGO, as well as those of his family and friends.

‘Taking advantage of the war, Volodymyr Zelensky is taking the first but confident steps towards corrupt authoritarianism,’ Shabunin wrote on Telegram. Daria Kaleniuk, executive director of AntAC and once a leading defender of Zelensky’s, called accusations of fraud and misuse of state resources ‘absurd’ and described the case as a ‘vendetta for what…our organisation is doing and will keep doing about corruption and wrongdoing of authorities.’

A government spokesperson explained the raids and arrests as a campaign to weed out Russian agents, who the government claims are using corruption charges to undermine Ukraine’s war effort. Indeed, several senior Zelensky allies have fallen because of both civil society and NABU-driven anticorruption probes, though there is no evidence that these charges have any links to Moscow-funded troublemakers.

Defence minister Reznikov resigned in 2023 after evidence of massive overcharging by army suppliers was published by the Nashi Groshy watchdog website; and last month, deputy prime minister Chernyshov has also faced corruption charges. NABU and SAPO were working on 268 cases of corruption against Zelensky allies when they were taken over, says Kyrylo Shevchenko, former head of Ukraine’s Central Bank. ‘The next to go will be anti-corruption activists and independent journalists,’ says Shevchenko. ‘Zelensky is copying Putin.’

What concerns disillusioned former Zelensky allies and his opponents alike is that the takedown of NABU and SAPO are part of a long pattern of rollback of anti-corruption checks and balances by Zelensky’s presidential administration. The agencies were established at the behest of the European Union, which required them to be independent from the government, with leadership chosen through transparent, fair competitions, not political appointments. But earlier this year, Ukraine’s presidential administration blocked the appointment of a new independent head of the bureau of economic security or BEB – another powerful law enforcement agency – insisting on a regime loyalist instead.

The law will make all the formerly independent economic crime institutions of Ukraine subordinate to the government-appointed prosecutor general Ruslan Kravchenko – who himself failed to qualify to be a regular prosecutor due to previous corruption allegations, but was promoted by Zelensky anyway.

‘By liquidating NABU, Zelensky is liquidating the last investigative body that could investigate his corruption,’ wrote Anatoly Shariy, one of Ukraine’s most popular YouTubers and head of a pro-Russian Eurosceptic party. ‘He will receive billions from the West. And steal, steal, steal.’

Zelensky’s government seems to have seriously miscalculated the mood of ordinary Ukrainian people. ‘This isn’t what our people have been fighting and dying for,’ wrote Olga Rudenko, editor-in-chief of the Kyiv Independent. ‘It’s devastatingly unfair to them.’ Wall Street Journal chief foreign correspondent Yaroslav Trofimov, himself a native of Kyiv, reports that ‘it’s no exaggeration that Ukrainian public opinion is in an absolute firestorm.’ For the first time since the Russian invasion in February 2022, prominent public figures have called for demonstrations against the government.

Perhaps more seriously, Zelensky seems to have badly misread the room in terms of the impact on his backers in the West. International anti-corruption bodies, Ukrainian civil society groups, the independent Ukrainian press and Western diplomats have all been warning Zelensky that passing this law could jeopardise Ukraine’s EU accession process, cancel its visa-free regime, and even trigger EU sanctions against Ukraine. But he went ahead and did it anyway.

In the wake of the Rada vote, Ukraine’s anti-corruption action centre published a mock up of a Time Magazine cover featuring Zelensky – but with half his face covered by that of Viktor Yanukovych, his corrupt predecessor. Yanukovych’s wholesale plundering of the state was one of the main triggers of the 2014 Maidan revolution. Just a year ago, any equivalence between Zelensky and Yanukovych would have seemed absurd. Today, many of those making exactly that grim comparison were once Zelensky’s most passionate supporters.

 
Continuation.

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But the government’s decision to then launch a full-frontal assault on the Maidan-era reforms implies that something sinister is at work. Sources suggested the trigger for the bill may have been the opening of NABU investigations into the dealings of presidential-office insiders.

The assault on Ukraine’s anti-corruption infrastructure has shocked many inside Mr Zelensky’s own team. One official suggested that the haste and scale of the bill was reminiscent of the infamous protest-banning laws of January 16th 2014, one of the last acts of Viktor Yanukovych’s government before the dictator was forced to flee Kyiv by helicopter. Another insider suggested that the presidential office had decided to seize a moment of impunity and opportunity—having recently brought America’s president, Donald Trump, somewhat onside after he seemed to have become frustrated with Vladimir Putin. “The focus has now switched to internal enemies,” said the insider. But for Yaroslav Zheleznyak, a deputy who was present in the Rada during the voting, the significance was far simpler. “Today 263 joyous deputies legalised corruption,” he said. “The message was simple: you can take whatever you want so long as you stay loyal.”

Spoiler Full text :

FEW DEPUTIES could remember a law of such importance being rushed so quickly through parliament. The passage of Bill 12414, which subordinates Ukraine’s two main independent anti-corruption bodies to the presidentially appointed prosecutor-general during wartime, had the feel of something done in panic. Unveiled at a hastily convened committee session on July 22nd at 8am, neither the committee head nor the majority of members were present. By the afternoon, the bill had been rushed over to the president for signature. Volodymyr Zelensky’s men had been able to find the numbers to comfortably pass the bill, with 263 voting for and just 13 daring to vote against. But the vote to undermine Ukraine’s most consequential anti-corruption reforms casts a shadow over the country’s future course.

Ukraine has been building up to this moment for several weeks, with what appears to be a growing crackdown on internal dissent. In early July the government blocked the appointment of Oleksandr Tsyvinsky, a well-regarded detective, to the vacant position of Director of the Bureau of Economic Security. That was followed by what appeared to be the politically motivated arrest of Vitaliy Shabunin, a prominent anti-corruption campaigner. In mid-July a shakeup of the government promoted uber-loyalists, including a new prime minister. Then, on July 21st, the domestic security service and the prosecutor-general’s office launched dozens of raids targeting officers at NABU and SAPO—the investigative and prosecution pillars of Ukraine’s independent anti-corruption system, set up under Western oversight after the 2014 Maidan revolution. The officers were accused of corruption and unlawful ties to Russia.

Those troubling episodes might have been lost in the chaos that defines internal Ukrainian politics and competitive law enforcement. Active investigations are ongoing, and without full knowledge of the evidence, actual criminality on the part of those being targeted cannot be ruled out. The aggressive nature of some of Ukraine’s anti-corruption campaigners has been polarising, leaving them short of supporters. But the government’s decision to then launch a full-frontal assault on the Maidan-era reforms implies that something sinister is at work. Sources suggested the trigger for the bill may have been the opening of NABU investigations into the dealings of presidential-office insiders.

The assault on Ukraine’s anti-corruption infrastructure has shocked many inside Mr Zelensky’s own team. One official suggested that the haste and scale of the bill was reminiscent of the infamous protest-banning laws of January 16th 2014, one of the last acts of Viktor Yanukovych’s government before the dictator was forced to flee Kyiv by helicopter. Another insider suggested that the presidential office had decided to seize a moment of impunity and opportunity—having recently brought America’s president, Donald Trump, somewhat onside after he seemed to have become frustrated with Vladimir Putin. “The focus has now switched to internal enemies,” said the insider. But for Yaroslav Zheleznyak, a deputy who was present in the Rada during the voting, the significance was far simpler. “Today 263 joyous deputies legalised corruption,” he said. “The message was simple: you can take whatever you want so long as you stay loyal.”

On the night of July 22nd Mr Zelensky signed Bill 12414. The Economist understands the European Union, one of Ukraine’s key financers, had pressed the Ukrainian leader to pause. Writing on social media before the measure was signed, the EU’s enlargement commissioner, Marta Kos, said it would have a negative impact on Ukraine’s membership negotiations. “Independent bodies like NABU & SAPO are essential for Ukraine’s EU path,” she wrote. In Kyiv the ambassadors of the G7 nations had issued a joint statement expressing “serious concerns”. But such rhetoric has had little impact. With Trumpist America no longer interested in promoting Ukraine’s reform efforts, Ukraine had been looking to Europe, the G7 and the IMF for direction. What they saw, says Mr Zhelezynak, was a lukewarm response to democratic backsliding. “It was seen to be weak. And our people saw their moment.”
 
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