Russian tanks and warplanes invade Georgia

[warpus]

Bush's call for an immediate cease-fire made Medvedev's announcement today make him look weak, bending to Bush's calls.

There must have been behind-the-scenes negotiating between the Russians and the Americans that we haven't been hearing about.

Bush: "We haven't done anything yet, but keep this up, and we'll make this realllly uncomfortable for you"

I suspect something like that. The Russians wouldn't budge, Bush gave his speech, and the Russians eventually said "Ah well, we achieved most of our goals anyway, we don't really want this to escalate into a conflict with the U.S. so we'll pull a 'mission accomplished' and call it a day"

 

[Gabryel Karolin]

I was promised Russian tanks in Tblisi, I'm much disseapointed . Winner, what do you have to say in your defence?

 

[innonimatu]

Orly?

...

A senior U.S. official said Monday that the United States and its allies suspected Russia had been planning an invasion for some time and deliberately instigated the conflict through attacks on Georgian villages by pro-Russian forces in South Ossetia despite outwardly appealing for calm and promising to rein in the separatists.

The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity

Propaganda, and bad propaganda. Was this "anonymous senior official" perhaps the same who said to ABC that the anthrax from the 2001 attacks had come from Iraq?

That the georgian army razed most of the south ossetian capital is well established. That Russia sought at the UN Security Council a cease fire resolution that very same day with a compromise to renounce the use of force by all parties in settling the South Ossetia and Abkhazia issues, is also on record. I don't have to say who delayed then...

Saakashvili tried to pull an "Operation Storm" on South Ossetia, that's what happened. And the russians are guilty of having reacted within a day, on time to prevent the success of the attack and eventually roll it back. Saakashvili should have understood the difference between "cleansing" a rebellious region backed by a small nation, and going against one backed by a major power.

And yes, Saakashvili is a war criminal, as he started this war with a deliberate attack on civilians, meant to raze a city and kill or expel its whole population. No amount or propaganda now can cleanse his record.

 

[Verbose]

And yes, Saakashvili is a war criminal, as he started this war with a deliberate attack on civilians, meant to raze a city and kill or expel its whole population. No amount or propaganda now can cleanse his record.

That goes to intent, is not established, and can't really be known in arears, even if one considers it probable.

 

[silver 2039]

A senior U.S. official said Monday that the United States and its allies suspected Russia had been planning an invasion for some time and deliberately instigated the conflict through attacks on Georgian villages by pro-Russian forces in South Ossetia despite outwardly appealing for calm and promising to rein in the separatists.

Oh what an unbiased source....

I really don't trust what any US official has to say about the situation, especially not with them screaming USSR!! USSR!!

 

[bigdog5994]

Oh what an unbiased source....

I really don't trust what any US official has to say about the situation, especially not with them screaming USSR!! USSR!!

but your trusting what the Russians are saying

 

[Snorrius]

We do not scream "USSR! USSR!"

 

[Ansar]

but your trusting what the Russians are saying

Oh noes!

We're falling for the communist propaganda!!

We do not scream "USSR! USSR!"

Well, duh. You speak Russian.

You say CCCP!! CCCP!!

 

[joshhh]

Damn, it looks like the Russians are still pushing into Georgia despite Medvedev's announcement of a ceasefire. Which confirms what we've known all along, he's just a puppet and Putin controls everything.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080812/ap_on_re_eu/georgia_russia

 

[silver 2039]

Russia is forcing the last Georgian forces out of Abkhazia. Its not as if they've taken over the country like the Georgian liars would have you believe. If Georgia wanted the ceasefire they should have withdrawn from Abkhazia.

 

[Adrogans]

And so for all of this crap they are going right back to where they were if they agree to this. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7557457.stm

 

[silver 2039]

And so for all of this crap they are going right back to where they were if they agree to this. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7557457.stm

That doesn't make any sense at all....why would Russia agree to something like that? I think this may just be over optimism by journalists or something. I doubt Mededev or Putin would agree to this.

 

[innonimatu]

That doesn't make any sense at all....why would Russia agree to something like that? I think this may just be over optimism by journalists or something. I doubt Mededev or Putin would agree to this.

Oh, I think they do. Sarkozy has secured an agreement in Moscow. Now he must secure an agreement in Tbilisi. Therefore he's going there with a "Georgia peace plan" to get Saakashvili's signature. Which is what the georgian government was asking for... diplomacy is very much about the wording. Can he refuse?

Any peace now that fails to place Abkhazia and South Ossetian under control by the Georgian government (this one) is a defeat. And what happens to defeated nationalist leaders?
The whole thing will be sorted out to Russia and the EU's satisfaction without messing with international borders. Georgia remains divided but forced to recognize that geography and history place in in the russian "area of influence". Nationalists are discredited and perhaps, hopefully, populations may be able to return to their homes, through I doubt in.

Any other alternative I can think of is worse.

 

[Gogf]

Nationalists are repressed by a foreign nation, not "discredited." It is a sad day.

 

[Gogf]

On the bright side, I'm glad that the West finally did something to stop the Russian aggression.

 

[red_elk]

Saakashvili tried to pull an "Operation Storm" on South Ossetia, that's what happened.

I read the operation name was "Clear Field".

Also, published list of peacekeepers, killed by Georgian fire on the first day of attack:

Valeev Timur Zarifovich, 1976
Gatylo Oleg Andreevich, 1982, First Sergeant
Kolesnikov Alexander Mihailovich, 1984, Sergeant
Kosyrev Vladimir Alexandrovich, 1980, Captain
Logvinenko Dmitry Dmitrievich, 1984, Corporal
Mitroshenkov Anatoly Vladimirovich, 1985, Corporal
Ponedelchenko Vladimir Andreevich, 1980, Private
Serbach Grigory Ivanovich, 1985, Private
Skazkopodatelev Dmitry Anatolievich, 1980, First Sergeant
Stepnov Georgiy Ivanovich, 1983, Private
Filatov Vladimir Mikhailovich, 1986, Private

 

[innonimatu]

Nationalists are repressed by a foreign nation, not "discredited." It is a sad day.

Nationalists as a political platform. That was clearly the russian's goal, and it seem to me that it was achieved.
Repression? Certainly, that's what war involves. But the goal is to create a new political situation, the goal is a new peace.
The georgian government's goal? Conquer the rebel provinces, by repressing, evicting or eliminating its population. The russian government's goal? Repress the georgian attempts at taking control over the whole country, break the political platform that supported it, frighten the population into accommodation to russian interests, instead of confrontation.

The whole thing was a sad, predictable, and avoidable affair. Sad because thousand of people got killed, and tens or hundreds of thousands risk being permanently expelled from their homes.
Predicable because... well, some countries claim areas of influence beyond its borders, and when great powers clash over a particular territory, the local population always gets screwed.
Avoidable because what this cartoonist drew (thanks, sgrig, an image can be worth a thousand words) should have been obvious to anyone for months now. And it was to many people, why do you think 10 european countries refused the US's request for Georgia to be accepted into NATO by December? These "guns of August" were at least not allowed to develop into a major catastrophe. And there wouldn't have been any war now, nor the suffering associated with it, if the georgian government had been better handled by the US - I simply do not believe Saakashvili started a major war without prior promises of support (but that is an opinion, of course).

 

[sgrig]

That doesn't make any sense at all....why would Russia agree to something like that? I think this may just be over optimism by journalists or something. I doubt Mededev or Putin would agree to this.

No worries:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wor...548260/Russia-annexes-a-fifth-of-Georgia.html

....
But Russia's foreign ministry had additional demands.

The Kremlin wants a buffer zone around South Ossetia and Abkhazia, from which all Georgian forces would be excluded. Russia also seeks a treaty guarantee that Georgia will never use force to recapture them.

These demands would safeguard what amounts to Moscow's de facto annexation of the two enclaves.

After the mauling suffered by his army during five days of fighting, President Mikheil Saakashvili of Georgia may have little choice but to agree.

Mr Sarkozy flew from Moscow to Georgia's capital, Tbilisi last night. He was expected to present his six points and Russia's additional demands to Mr Saakashvili.
...

If indeed this is true, and the "additional demands" are part of Sarkozy's package, then this is much more than just the six-point plan reported earlier.

 

[Desmond Hawkins]

And so for all of this crap they are going right back to where they were if they agree to this. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7557457.stm

No they aren't. Russia has just thrashed a neighbour and performed its own Kosovo War, while making the West seem weak in the "near abroad". Russia has made it seem much riskier for pro-western democracies to cross Moscow. Russia has also shown how NATO and later Bush's precedents can be used against them. It is not clear that all of these advantages will pan out for Russia as some of them may still backfire, but at this moment that is where things lie.

While none of this is territory, it is a big deal.

 

[Alpine Trooper]

Unfortunately this was planned by NATO. NATO forces had just finished preparing Georgian forces for this conflict and arming them with NATO weapons one week before Georgia started to shell in South Ossetia. The attack during the opening ceremony of the Olympics kept it off Western radar.