Scientists in Italy go on trial for failing to predict earthquake

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http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/may/26/italy-quake-experts-manslaughter-charge

http://www.foxnews.com/scitech/2011...r-failing-predict-earthquake/?test=latestnews

Wow, just wow. I'm almost speechless when I saw this headlines on Foxnews. Foxnews isn't reliable, so I tried to find an additional source. This can't be true can it? Can someone in Italy confirm this? I really don't need to explain how this is wrong. How can a modern western country do such an ignorant thing? This would never happen in the U.S. Although in the U.S., some nut would probably try to sue a seismologist for failing to predict a quake, but there wouldn't be any criminal charges.

Italian government officials have accused the country's top seismologist of manslaughter, after failing to predict a natural disaster that struck Italy in 2009, a massive devastating earthquake that killed 308 people.

A shocked spokesman for the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) likened the accusations to a witch hunt.

"It has a medieval flavor to it -- like witches are being put on trial," the stunned spokesman told FoxNews.com.

Enzo Boschi, the president of Italy's National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology (INGV), will face trial along with six other scientists and technicians, after failing to predict the future and the impending disaster.

Earthquakes are, of course, nearly impossible to predict, seismologists say. In fact, according to the website for the USGS, no major quake has ever been predicted successfully.

"Neither the USGS nor Caltech nor any other scientists have ever predicted a major earthquake," reads a statement posted on the USGS website. "They do not know how, and they do not expect to know how any time in the foreseeable future."

John Vidale, a Washington State seismologist and professor at the University of Washington, agreed that earthquake forecasting is simply impossible.

"We're not able to predict earthquakes very well at all," he told LiveScience.

"One problem is, we don't know how much stress it takes to break a fault," Vidale told the site. "Second we still don't know how much stress is down there. All we can do is measure how the ground is deforming."

Not knowing either of these factors makes it pretty tough to figure out when stresses will get to the point of a rupture, and an earth-shaking quake, LiveScience explained.

The seven scientists were placed under investigation almost a year ago, according to a news story on the website of the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) -- the world's largest general-science society and a leading voice for the interests of scientists worldwide.

Alan Leschner, chief executive of AAAS, said his group wrote a letter to the Italian government last year -- clearly, to no avail.

"Whoever made these accusations misunderstands the nature of science, the nature of the discipline and how difficult it is to predict anything with the surety they expect," Leschner told FoxNews.com.

The case could have a "chilling effect" on scientists, he noted.

"It reflects a lack of understanding about what science can and can't do," he said. "And frankly, it will have an effect of intimidating scientists ... This just feels like either scapegoating or an attempt to intimidate a community. This really seems inappropriate."

Judge Giuseppe Romano Gargarella said that the seven defendants had supplied "imprecise, incomplete and contradictory information," in a press conference following a meeting held by the committee 6 days before the quake, reported the Italian daily Corriere della Sera

In doing so, they "thwarted the activities designed to protect the public," the judge said.

Boschi's lawyer, Marcello Melandri, has been taking the news badly, reported the AAAS story. He was particularly stunned because -- despite of the near impossibility of predicting earthquakes Boshi had been indicating that a large earthquake would be coming, though he did not say when.

Melandri told the AAAS that Boschi never sought to reassure the population of L'Aquila that there was no threat. On the contrary, the INGV head made it clear that "at some point it is probable that there will be a big earthquake."

In addition to Boschi, those facing trial are:

* Franco Barberi, committee vice president;
* Bernardo De Bernardinis, at the time vice president of Italy's Civil Protection Department and now president of the country's Institute for Environmental Protection and Research;
* Giulio Selvaggi, director of the National Earthquake Center;
* Gian Michele Calvi, director of the European Center for Training and Research in Earthquake Engineering;
* Claudio Eva, an earth scientist at the University of Genoa; and
* Mauro Dolce, director of the office of seismic risk at the Civil Protection Department.
 
Words can't even describe how outraged I am that this is actually taking place.
 
Whaddya expect for the home of the Vatican? Didn't they recently get around to admitting Galileo was right? Maybe these guys were predicting no quakes and are being punished as false prophets... ;)

Btw, Fox has no apparent reason to lie about this so I have no reason to think they made it up, not that they dont occasionally fall for a prank.
 
I say they go for the "It was an act of God we couldn't predict" defense. How religious is Italy anyway, with the Vatican right there?

Might as well put God/Pope on trial.
 
Speechless.

Perhaps there's something missing that makes this story less insane?

I guess everyone should turn themselves into the police for not having non-existent powers.
 
Clearly there is a ring of mad scientists in Italy bent on taking over the world. They must have an earthquake machine somewhere hidden in their underground fortress of solitude.

I just really hope this gets thrown out. It will be a HORRIBLE precedent to set.
 
in the past people would have looked to the Pope and Vatican for tragedies, and they'd identify the culprits (witches, non-believers, Jews, you know, the usual suspects) - now they're actually blaming the scientists? Isn't that a VICTORY for science over religion? ;)

Btw, there's an Incan legend that said they had a writing system but a massive quake hit and the priesthood blamed it on technological advances, like writing, so they either switched back to or invented the string/bead system. Must of switched back to it, inventing it would be a technological advance.
 
Whaddya expect for the home of the Vatican? Didn't they recently get around to admitting Galileo was right? Maybe these guys were predicting no quakes and are being punished as false prophets... ;)

Btw, Fox has no apparent reason to lie about this so I have no reason to think they made it up, not that they dont occasionally fall for a prank.
:facepalm: Incorrect, try again

PS Galileo was wrong, and his proof was demented, srsly tides?
I say they go for the "It was an act of God we couldn't predict" defense. How religious is Italy anyway, with the Vatican right there?

Might as well put God/Pope on trial.
Isn't really religious, religion isn't as popular amongst youth, abortion and birth control are widespread.
in the past people would have looked to the Pope and Vatican for tragedies, and they'd identify the culprits (witches, non-believers, Jews, you know, the usual suspects) - now they're actually blaming the scientists? Isn't that a VICTORY for science over religion? ;)

Btw, there's an Incan legend that said they had a writing system but a massive quake hit and the priesthood blamed it on technological advances, like writing, so they either switched back to or invented the string/bead system. Must of switched back to it, inventing it would be a technological advance.

Grave misunderstanding of history and this is probably someone in Italian government looking for a scapegoat

I am deeply troubled with Berzerker turning a thread about the Italian government having derps in it into somehow the Pope's fault, very illogical
 
There has to be more to this story, there just has to be.
 
:facepalm: Incorrect, try again

PS Galileo was wrong, and his proof was demented, srsly tides?

Grave misunderstanding of history and this is probably someone in Italian government looking for a scapegoat

I am deeply troubled with Berzerker turning a thread about the Italian government having derps in it into somehow the Pope's fault, very illogical

:lol: Jesus Christ
 
I suppose it's possible he didn't make proper publications or announcements of his findings, but at the very most that should get him fired (and that's even a stretch, imo). I really hope this case ends up going no where. If he actually gets punished I'll have lost the very little faith I have in Italy.
 
Whaddya expect for the home of the Vatican? Didn't they recently get around to admitting Galileo was right? Maybe these guys were predicting no quakes and are being punished as false prophets... ;)

Btw, Fox has no apparent reason to lie about this so I have no reason to think they made it up, not that they dont occasionally fall for a prank.

That is a very ignorant statement on many levels.

And for your knowledge, the Vatican IS ITS OWN STATE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
 
After these scientists, I say we go after meteorologists, since they are so often wrong about the weather, it is absolutely criminal that they get away with getting the weather predictions wrong. [pissed]
 
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