SCOTUS Nomination II: I Like Beer

[HoloDoc]

I stand corrected. Blame the stuff I read on Australian new sites a few months ago.

 

[Hrothbern]

I'm not saying it will be restored. My prediction is that Trump announces the election results can't be certified due to interference. We basically have no laws governing that situation, so executive orders to maintain stability and security will apply. Election boards in Pinhead County aren't going to know what to do, and since election boards are "bipartisan," meaning made up of balancing numbers of the most rabid partisans from each side, there will be a fight in every election board between those who want to certify and those who want to wait for an 'official correction' from the federal government. Eventually the certification deadline will arrive, and the fight over whether to use the corrected or uncorrected numbers will boil over into protests...which will be deemed as threats to the national security. Casualties will occur, inflaming the situation and leading to more casualties. Then the protests will end People identified as having protested will be convicted of crimes that will make them ineligible to vote in the future, and even blue states might be competitive. That will be that.

I'll be in Central America, if anyone is looking for me.

How much room left between the US and Brazil ?
That Bolsanaro has a 15 points lead, though will still need a second round.
A quote from him:
“I am in favor of a dictatorship … We will never resolve serious national problems with this irresponsible democracy,”

 

[HoloDoc]

How much room left between the US and Brazil ?
That Bolsanaro has a 15 points lead, though will still need a second round.
A quote from him:
“I am in favor of a dictatorship … We will never resolve serious national problems with this irresponsible democracy,”

Probably kind of like France. He'll make the second round because he attracts the crazies and the other parties split the vote, but he's unlikely to win the second round. Duterte only got up in The Philippines because there was no second round there.

 

[sophie]

The SCOTUS also has nothing whatsoever to do with impeachment. That's up to Congress. SCOTUS might get involved in some of Trump's other legal issues, but probably not.

SCOTUS will become very important when the question of whether a president can pardon himself comes to a head. Or else should Trump seek to meddle more personally/blatantly in the investigation against him.

 

[AdrienIer]

Probably kind of like France. He'll make the second round because he attracts the crazies and the other parties split the vote, but he's unlikely to win the second round. Duterte only got up in The Philippines because there was no second round there.

He's going to be at least 10 points ahead after the first round, not 3 points behind. And the second round polls are around 50/50. Don't be too confident.

 

[Zelig]

I'm not saying it will be restored. My prediction is that Trump announces the election results can't be certified due to interference. We basically have no laws governing that situation, so executive orders to maintain stability and security will apply. Election boards in Pinhead County aren't going to know what to do, and since election boards are "bipartisan," meaning made up of balancing numbers of the most rabid partisans from each side, there will be a fight in every election board between those who want to certify and those who want to wait for an 'official correction' from the federal government. Eventually the certification deadline will arrive, and the fight over whether to use the corrected or uncorrected numbers will boil over into protests...which will be deemed as threats to the national security. Casualties will occur, inflaming the situation and leading to more casualties. Then the protests will end People identified as having protested will be convicted of crimes that will make them ineligible to vote in the future, and even blue states might be competitive. That will be that.

I'll be in Central America, if anyone is looking for me.

One thing that cheers me up is that the protests against SOPA/PIPA were really only a fraction of what the tech industry could do, were they sufficiently motivated.

 

[innonimatu]

One thing that cheers me up is that the protests against SOPA/PIPA were really only a fraction of what the tech industry could do, were they sufficiently motivated.

The current "tech industry", if by that you mean google, facebook, etc, can be broken apart and defanged if the government is sufficiently motivated. It'd be good for the world too.

He's going to be at least 10 points ahead after the first round, not 3 points behind. And the second round polls are around 50/50. Don't be too confident.

The only way Bolsanaro can win in Brazil is through electoral fraud. Which is quite possible in Brazil with its stupid faith in electronic voting. But Bolsanaro would install a different criminal gang if he took over power, so the ones sitting there now are more likely to pack their stolen money and leave rather that bet on him. Or bet that the PT people will once again be dumb enough to go for an accommodation instead of confrontation after winning the elections. Just demand the heads of Moro, Temer and a few others. Most likely outcome.

 

[HoloDoc]

He's going to be at least 10 points ahead after the first round, not 3 points behind. And the second round polls are around 50/50. Don't be too confident.

I'm not confident. My fingers are crossed so hard I'm giving myself tendinitis. It certainly doesn't help that Brazilian politics seems to treat corruption like a game of limbo; how low can you go?

 

[onejayhawk]

Two constitional crisis flash points which have to be settle by scotus
1) Can a President shut down an investigation into himself by firing the investigators if congress dose nothing
2) Can a President self pardon himself for crimes

While Republican controlled congress will simply do nothing, a Democrat congress would certainly move to impeach and the President would fight this legally, as the law itself is ambugious it will have to be settle by SCOTUS
My guess is they will side with Trump and simply make it a one of ruling that isnt law, like they did with G.W.Bush election win.

On the first question, no. The investigation would be passed on to another investigator. This actually happened in 1973.

Not sure on the second, but it would fit my concept of a high misdemeanor.

It is rash to speak of Congress with certainty unless you are predicting half actions and delays.

J

 

[Yeekim]

If this happens, I freely admit I have totally misidentified what the larger concern is here.

So it did happen.
Bloody hell.
Guys, your country is even more effed up than I thought possible.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

So it did happen.
Bloody hell.
Guys, your country is even more effed up than I thought possible.

Dude, we elected Donald Trump as president. How could you think there was a limit on how effed up we could be?

 

[HoloDoc]

Dude, we elected Donald Trump as president. How could you think there was a limit on how effed up we could be?

Yeah, but Election Day is just one day. Maybe you were all drunk. But you seem to have been on a bender for around 240 years now.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

When I was younger I did some really stupid things when I was drunk, but I never did anything as stupid as voting for Donald Trump. Can't see that as an excuse. Long term ill intentions leading to a huge chunk of the electorate being voluntarily disinformed is the root.

 

[Lexicus]

For some reason,

It's not like this is a mystery. We know who owns and controls the media in the United States. It's not people who have an interest in challenging power structures of any kind really.

EDIT: I also have to admit that I was wrong about Murkowski... I thought she would pull a Collins as well.

same here.

I mean, I get that you're upset, and justifiably so, but the "lol millennials" thing is basically unfounded and came out of nowhere. It just reads like more trite groundless generation-bashing, and I thought you were better than that.

if millennials voted at rates comparable to the boomers, democrats would run this entire country. that's not to moralize the issue or 'blame the millennials' but seems pretty undeniably true.

You think it's just a matter of opinion whether inflicting lasting emotional trauma on children in absence of a real immigration policy is acceptable? Care to explain the "pro" side on that one?

the only possible conclusion here is that people who support this policy belong behind barbed wire themselves.

 

[FriendlyFire]

On the first question, no. The investigation would be passed on to another investigator. This actually happened in 1973.
Not sure on the second, but it would fit my concept of a high misdemeanor.
It is rash to speak of Congress with certainty unless you are predicting half actions and delays. J

Iam pretty sure supeonaing a sitting President was also settled in 1973 as well, but here we are with Republicans now insisting that a President cannot be supeoned
Self pardon is being pushed by Republicans as perfectly legal laying the ground work for/if Trump to pardon himself
Trump gotten away with so many scandals that would have ended a Clinton / Obama presidency at this stage anything goes

 

[Zelig]

The current "tech industry", if by that you mean google, facebook, etc, can be broken apart and defanged if the government is sufficiently motivated. It'd be good for the world too.

Not facebook. If by "the government", you mean the American government, then no. I've got far more faith in the controlling interests of google/amazon/ms/apple than I do in the American government. Kowtowing to the knobs of the day in American government is a losing strategy for long-term worldwide profits.

Probably my favourite succinct annalists of Trump's whining about Bezos (language): https://daringfireball.net/linked/2018/04/04/trump-bezos

"Amazon’s stock is taking a hit as a result of Trump’s rhetoric, but if I were an Amazon investor, I wouldn’t worry. Jeff Bezos is very, very smart. Donald Trump is not."

 

[HoloDoc]

Not facebook. If by "the government", you mean the American government, then no. I've got far more faith in the controlling interests of google/amazon/ms/apple than I do in the American government. Kowtowing to the knobs of the day in American government is a losing strategy for long-term worldwide profits.

Probably my favourite succinct annalists of Trump's whining about Bezos (language): https://daringfireball.net/linked/2018/04/04/trump-bezos

"Amazon’s stock is taking a hit as a result of Trump’s rhetoric, but if I were an Amazon investor, I wouldn’t worry. Jeff Bezos is very, very smart. Donald Trump is not."

Bezos also thinks long term. Trump can barely think as far as his next nap. Bezos was practically begged to sell Amazon when the Dot Com Bubble burst, but refused because "it will turn around, and I'll make more in the end." Trump declares bankruptcy more often than Greece.

 

[mitsho]

Actually, didn't Germany declare bankruptcy more often than Greece? But I concur to your point. And world politics certainly is more interesting now than it has been, things are in motion and some change is upcoming.

 

[HoloDoc]

Actually, didn't Germany declare bankruptcy more often than Greece? But I concur to your point. And world politics certainly is more interesting now than it has been, things are in motion and some change is upcoming.

I'm sure 1938 was interesting as well.

 

[Bootstoots]

How much room left between the US and Brazil ?
That Bolsanaro has a 15 points lead, though will still need a second round.
A quote from him:
“I am in favor of a dictatorship … We will never resolve serious national problems with this irresponsible democracy,”

He's going to be at least 10 points ahead after the first round, not 3 points behind. And the second round polls are around 50/50. Don't be too confident.

The current "tech industry", if by that you mean google, facebook, etc, can be broken apart and defanged if the government is sufficiently motivated. It'd be good for the world too.



The only way Bolsanaro can win in Brazil is through electoral fraud. Which is quite possible in Brazil with its stupid faith in electronic voting. But Bolsanaro would install a different criminal gang if he took over power, so the ones sitting there now are more likely to pack their stolen money and leave rather that bet on him. Or bet that the PT people will once again be dumb enough to go for an accommodation instead of confrontation after winning the elections. Just demand the heads of Moro, Temer and a few others. Most likely outcome.

I made a post in News Thread of the Americas on the Brazilian election. Let's talk about it there - I'd appreciate all of your input.