Snap UK General Election

[AdrienIer]

If the Queen's Speech is not passed by Parliament, then stuff gets real (as they say).

So you're predicting Mayhem ?

 

[EnglishEdward]

Also, looks like Sinn Fein picked up a few seats, while all Northern Irish parties that weren't the DUC and Sinn Fein got wiped out. IIRC, they're abstentionist in Westminster and don't take their seats. Does this reduce the majority required to form a government?

Yes, the uncodified UK constitution requires a majority of the actual parliamentary votes cast, not a majority of the potential parliamentary votes, to pass laws.

And if there is a dead heat, the House of Commons Speaker has a casting vote.

 

[Yeekim]

My profficiency in the Finno-Ugric tongues tells me that the appropriate expression may very well be ‘VITT!’.

QUERY CONFIRM/DENY Y/N>>>

Nah. That's more of a "hit my thumb with a hammer" kind of expression. Not something one says when he is torn between legitimate pity and schadenfreude, as in my case.

Also, when venting frustration by mentioning female genitalia, one would commonly use illative case ("VITTU!") rather than nominative.

EDIT: Now thinking of it, using inessive ("VITTUS..."; as an assessment of the developments & long-term outlook of UK) would also be quite proper.
/Finno-Ugric grammar lesson.

 

[Arakhor]

So you're predicting Mayhem ?

Well, there's already talk that the Queen will not deliver the QS in person unless it's guaranteed to be passed. That by itself would be a shock to the system, given how many she's delivered in her time.

 

[Ecthy]

It's much too early to speculate on the Queen's Speech. What does everyone think about Corbyn's ambitions right now?

 

[AdrienIer]

Isn't Corbyn's reaction just a way to show strength and placate the right wing of Labour ? He's probably planning for a new election soon where he'll have the advantage of not being considered a loser anymore.

 

[Arakhor]

He's done very well, but he's still lost in practical terms. May can only avoid a minority government by allying with the DUP, who no doubt will want their pound of flesh, whether publicly or behind closed doors.

 

[Ecthy]

Another snap election? Adrienler, do you think Corbyn is speculating that this hung parliament situation will fail to produce a government?

 

[AdrienIer]

Last time labour got 40% of the vote was Blair in 2001. I don't think there have been many parties losing UK elections with that many votes.

Another snap election? Adrienler, do you think Corbyn is speculating that this hung parliament situation will fail to produce a government?

May is going to get eaten by her own. Then whoever gets chosen to replace her will have literally no legitimacy.

Edit : Found it, Wilson lost against Heath in 70 despite getting 43% of the vote. Since then the losing party was always in the 30s or the high 20s.

 

[Bootstoots]

Looking over the full results, it's interesting that despite their failure, the Torys increased their share of the vote. More people, both proportionally and in absolute numbers, voted for May than voted for Cameron last time round.

This all seems to have come from the utter collapse of UKIP, which fell from 12.6% to 1.9%. Both the Tories and Labour gained, with the Tories gaining more but not as much as people were expecting. It would be interesting to see how many Labour --> UKIP --> Labour votes there were.

 

[Arakhor]

Last time labour got 40% of the vote was Blair in 2001. I don't think there have been many parties losing UK elections with that many votes.

The Guardian coverage commented that both sides would have won in previous years with the votes percentages they got yesterday.

 

[Leoreth]

IWhat she did not understand was that she needed to present a positive vision to the
electorate to buy in to instead (like Hillary) believing that a promise of managerialism and a negative campaign against her opponent would suffice.

The Conservatives are the party of Brexit and austerity. There was no positive message available to her.

He's done very well, but he's still lost in practical terms. May can only avoid a minority government by allying with the DUP, who no doubt will want their pound of flesh, whether publicly or behind closed doors.

So what does the DUP want? Unionism and conservative policies shouldn't be hard to swallow for the Tories.

 

[Kyriakos]

The Guardian coverage commented that both sides would have won in previous years with the votes percentages they got yesterday.

Good old guardian, still anti-Corbyn

Anyway, i am happy with the result. I asked if the DUP are (as unionists) a rather nasty party. I suppose they are?
How can a gov survive with them? (even if the other member is tory )

 

[AdrienIer]

The Guardian coverage commented that both sides would have won in previous years with the votes percentages they got yesterday.

Of course the main difference is that the UKIP was strong in previous years, and the libdems also lost a lot of voters. So with the UK back to being a 2-party (plus local parties) land they're bound to get closer to 50%.
Still, many people on the right (including the right wing labour people) thought that Corbyn would never get above 30%, yet he did. They're going to have to take him seriously.

 

[Ecthy]

According to the Guardian just now, "May strikes deal with DUP..." -- she does the only reasonable thing if she wants to remain in power. Looks like she goes after a coalition government after all. All of you who predicted her downfall might be in for a surprise.

Any news from relevant resistance to her leadership inside the conservative party?

 

[EvaDK]

The ensuing political chaos that will now engulf the UK, is the price you pay for the complete lack of true political leadership. If May's survival as PM becomes dependent on Northern Irish seats in the UK Parliament, they will demand a Soft Brexit'ish solution for the Northern Irish/Irish border, meaning more or less free passage of goods, services and people (unless they are completely stupid) - something that Hard Brexit May can't deliver.

If there's a cartoon of May shooting herself in both her feet with a double barreled shotgun, this would be the perfect time to bring it.

 

[EnglishEdward]

The election result is technically a draw.

And by holding his ground on the true left hill top where he was expected to be driven off and slaughtered, Jeremy Corbyn is the clear winner.

Jeremy Corbyn has, very nearly single handedly, albeit a little assisted by some blunders from Theresa May;

(a) eliminated the Conservative majority in Parliament
(b) increased the Labour representation in Parliament
(c) restored the Labour vote to about the 1997 level
(d) moved the whole country to the left
(e) discredited the new labour blairite remnants
(f) invigorated the left; and
(g) paved the way for another election where Labour will have a good chance.

 

[Hrothbern]

I think that it was her own decision. Another Prime Minister might have done it very dfferently.

The way I see it is that Theresa May was a reasonably competent minister, but as Prime Minister she was somewhat over stretched.

She failed to take the initiative and was from the very first reacting against the Brexit vote and its critics. It was in my opinion essential that
she create an environment for putting forward ideas on post Brexit agricultural, financial, immigration, industrial, social and trade policy etc
so as to create constructive debate and to positively enthuse parliament with the idea of being responsible for determining the nation's future.

Instead she got bogged down with the idea of creating an enormous repreal bill that would unecessarily incorporate vast quantities of EU law.

When she realised that determined guerrilla resistance would slow that process down to snail pace, she concluded that she needed a general
election mandate and a higher majority to push it through. What she did not understand was that she needed to present a positive vision to the
electorate to buy in to instead (like Hillary) believing that a promise of managerialism and a negative campaign against her opponent would suffice.

Yes, but there will be another general election before long. I regard this as nothing more than a nil nil result on a two leg football match.

Makes sense what you say

I like your:
"It was in my opinion essential that she create an environment for putting forward ideas on post Brexit agricultural, financial, immigration, industrial, social and trade policy etc
so as to create constructive debate and to positively enthuse parliament with the idea of being responsible for determining the nation's future".

BTW
I typed "political post brexit vision uk" as search words and found little or none on a UK vision.
The Guardian with an article stating that Labour should create a post-Brexit vision.
There was link to the BVA, the vets, with content. All other links were no-content.
There was a link to Boris Johnson statements with the post-Brexit UK foreign policy that did not come further than the soundbite "Global Britain".
The one really suggesting a vision with content turned out to be empty as well: http://press.conservatives.com/post/151239411635/prime-minister-britain-after-brexit-a-vision-of
Everything touching vision drowned in defense to Brexit or EU or other parties/factions, internal political overhead processes, polls and so forth:
=> little or none content contributions to a vision.

So... much work to be done there

 

[Ecthy]

Lol. Corbyn doesn't have the votes to govern. May will make the necessary deal with DUP. If it means a softer border with NI/I, then so be it. May picked a hard brexit line for reasons, not for ideology. She will compromise if it means her political survival.

 

[Arakhor]

So what does the DUP want? Unionism and conservative policies shouldn't be hard to swallow for the Tories.

They don't want special status for Northern Ireland post-Brexit and they absolutely oppose Jeremy Corbyn, but they also oppose the means-tested winter fuel payments, support the pension triple-lock and want an increase in the minimum wage.