100 seats over half the total number of seats or 100 more than labour ?
Snap UK General Election
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100 seats over half the total number of seats or 100 more than labour ?
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I've already conflated Amber Rudd with Liz Truss in my mind, which is bad for Ms. Rudd, given that Ms. Truss is the one who shamefully refused to stand up for the judiciary during the media frenzy over the Supreme Court ruling about a necessary Brexit vote in Parliament.
Mise
isle of lucy
Majority of 100,
(edited per Samson below)
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I am not sure that is quite right. There are 650 seats, so 1/2 = 325. 325 + 100 = 425, everyone else gets 225, majority = 200.
Mise
isle of lucy
You`re right, I`m being stupid. Thanks!
But not a lot more than a majority of seats then. I hope the tories will fall short of that, so they stop acting like they own the UK
Mise
isle of lucy
You know I don`t think I was being stupid, I think I did mean 100 more than half the seats, so ~200 more than Labour. Lol.
I think some in the Tory party are expecting a 50 seat majority, up from 16 today.
I think some in the Tory party are expecting a 50 seat majority, up from 16 today.
200 over labour means a ~75 seat majority. That was what May was aiming for when she called the election but I'm not certain this is doable now
Mise
isle of lucy
I dunno man, the polls have been all over the place. It depends on whether you believe the youth turnout is going to be significant: a lot of the recent surge in Labour polls is down to the 18-24 vote, and specifically, that polls have found them to be saying they`re more likely to vote than has historically been the case. This has come primarily from Corbyn`s promise to scrap university tuition fees, which has of course led to an increase in support among 18-24 year olds, but also, more surprisingly perhaps, an increase in voter turnout among this cohort. If this holds true, and 18-24s do come out to vote in greater numbers, then Labour have every chance of winning more marginals and holding the Conservatives to a small majority. But then you also have to factor in where these students are registered -- they can register at home, in their parents` constituencies, or they can register in their university constituency. So this is another variable to consider. Finally, we know from Nick Clegg`s experience that polling after or resulting from TV debates doesn`t really hold firm on election day: he was polling ~30% after the debate, in which he performed very well, but this reverted to pre-debate norms on election day itself.
So, long story short, these polls have so many variables that we really can`t take anything for granted. My prediction is partly based on low expectations before the election, and partly by a belief that election days tend to revert to historic norms. I still have bitter memories of the 2015 election, where the polls gave me a lot of false hope. So I suppose this is partly based on my own psychology too
Not sure if Cameron was a more serious person than May (he seemed to be a moron anyway), yet some people do fall for such types of no-content but endless spewing of sound-bytes politicians. May's issue is furthermore than she is terrible at public speaking (which is normal for people on the whole, but not good at all if you are the PM). She may be less imbecilic than Cameron, but that itself is no great virtue.
The youth turn out will be interesting; it was up considerably for the EU referendum (60%ish), so it's not inconceivable that it jumps up significantly from 2015 (40%ish). As I understand it Yougov is assuming youth turn-out percentage in the 50s, Survation in the 80s (!), while the other polling companies are assuming the trends in previous general elections continue. This might explain why the polls are coming out so remarkably different.
I'm personally expecting a slightly increased Tory majority, but it could be anything from a hung parliament to a Tory landslide and I wouldn't be surprised at this point. I'm really not sure which way it's going to go.
I'm personally expecting a slightly increased Tory majority, but it could be anything from a hung parliament to a Tory landslide and I wouldn't be surprised at this point. I'm really not sure which way it's going to go.
The live debate is starting. Interesting tactics in the opening statements - Amber Rudd is still very much pushing the PM (I don't think she said 'Conservative' once), saying 'we have a plan' repeatedly while being the only leader not to actually state a policy. Also interesting to see who is aiming at whom - the SNP directed all of their fire at the Tories, as if Labour are now an electoral irrelevance in Scotland. And nobody mentioned UKIP - a big change from last June!
SMcM
Emperor
Gotta say that while I disagree with him, Corbyn won the leadership debate. That could see polls go more in his favor.
Well…
It is as wild as the US electoral college. The Tories currently have an absolute majority of seats on 1/3 of the votes with non-full turnout, so it might be 1/4 of the electorate at best, really, and that is their mandate for the referendum which suddenly saw 50-odd percent of voters, or 2 out of 4 constituent countries (sorry, Truronian,
Nah. Merkel does what she does because she has an ideology behind her thought process. Whether you like or agree with that ideology or not, it's there.
Since Sinn Féin aren't taking their seats, what is the real majority?
SMcM
Emperor
Why is Cornwall hell? Doesn't even my sense as a joke!
Also, when we look at averages (as on their own polls aren't reliable), Tories have consistently polled at between 40 and 48 per cent in the polls, and seat predications have consistently had conservative leads of at least 50.
Also, when we look at averages (as on their own polls aren't reliable), Tories have consistently polled at between 40 and 48 per cent in the polls, and seat predications have consistently had conservative leads of at least 50.
EnglishEdward
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