[BTS] Sullla's AI Survivor Season Eight - Wildcard Game 2 Thread
- Thread starter Eauxps I. Fourgott
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Saxo Grammaticus
Clerk
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Just bizarre. Alexander votes Brennus for diplo after that diplo screen?
Plains-Cow
Best Resource; Always Wins
Wow. Who could have saw this one???
Fippy
Mycro Junkie
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Peaceweight isn't shown in the diplo screenie without BUG or so.
That was another hidden +3 or so over Cyrus.
Saxo Grammaticus
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Thanks for clarifying!
Keler
Prince
I have Brenus win and nothing else correct.
Diplomatic victory is a lot more likely than people may be thinking.
I think many people including me very coward to select diplo victory as an option.
My test results I found
644/1454 Space %44
354/1454 Culture %24
321/1454 Domination %22
135/1454 Diplomatic almost %10
Diplomatic victory is a lot more likely than people may be thinking.
I think many people including me very coward to select diplo victory as an option.
My test results I found
644/1454 Space %44
354/1454 Culture %24
321/1454 Domination %22
135/1454 Diplomatic almost %10
Saxo Grammaticus
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Are those 1,454 tests for this field or from some other pool?
Keler
Prince
With sullas map and 52 leaders involved
And almost same settings, it shouldn't matter with barbs getting nerfed or existence of apostolic palace. Someone curious can also check Sulla's result I think we see diplo victory at least once every season.
And almost same settings, it shouldn't matter with barbs getting nerfed or existence of apostolic palace. Someone curious can also check Sulla's result I think we see diplo victory at least once every season.
Thrasybulos
Prince
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Well, got robbed of the Spaceship points (and thus better victory date points) by the troll victory condition.16 points.
Almost enough to win today.
That said, I think that Washington is indeed more likely to be FTD, so there's that too.
Also, Brennus not going Culture with 6 Holy Cities has to be a freak dice roll, so can't really complain about not getting the spaceship points.
I don't think that Washington is overwhelmingly FTD though: a 60-70/30-40ish split with Sury?
So with Washington the overwhelming favourite in that category, it felt like a worthwhile gamble. And for once, it paid off.
Last edited:
Eauxps I. Fourgott
AI Survivor Nerd
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Seeding Watch:
Lots to report after this game. First, Suryavarman is now confirmed to be dropping back down to Pool Two for next season, having failed to score the single point needed in this game. That also probably secures Stalin's spot in Pool One for one more season; Gandhi and Mehmed are the only close leaders still able to play, and I don't fancy either of their odds. Perhaps Pericles or Churchill could manage it if they went totally nuts in the playoff round, but I tend to doubt that this will actually happen.
Cyrus has secured a spot in Pool Two! His two extra points leapfrogged him ahead of Mehmed and Charlemagne, now in the #12 overall seed, so he's safe for now. Alexander's kill steal also proved highly significant in this regard, pushing him ahead of Charlemagne, Zara, and Louis XIV. Louis in particular is now out of the seeded leaders and potentially going to be the only unseeded champion next time. Zara is now on the bubble.
How likely are we to see the seeds shuffle any more this season? Pericles, Hammurabi, and Churchill are the only leaders in reach by a single good game. Somebody could sweep the rest of the season and leap in... but I rather doubt that we will see this happen. I doubt there's going to be a lot more of this going on over the last four weeks of competition.
I am up too late and tired after staying up to knock out the entire game tonight, so I will try to keep this brief. (Update: Not particularly successful.)
I feel vindicated in my doubts about Suryavarman's position and think he will not do well in the Alternate Histories. The barb pressure, slow-starting jungle cities, and dogpile potential are all going to be regular elements, and my understanding is that he's pretty likely to frequently found an opening religion as well, which clearly does more harm than good. Even if he gets a decent number of converts in other replays (not too likely since the barbs will stop him from actively playing a part in this), simply turning Brennus into an enemy is a problem enough. Given we saw it in the opening round as well, I think the Archery avoidance is a serious problem and it certainly makes the barbs that much worse. Sury further had a relatively good diplo game in terms of actual wars declared against him: Brennus was the only one. Alex or Willem would surely like a piece of him in some of the replays, right? Overall just not a good position; not necessarily unwinnable, but he won't be winning much.
On the other hand, it is clear that I underestimated Brennus. He didn't seem to mind the barbs at all and his consistent economic strength in particular was a surprise; I guess the seafood + floodplains were just good for that even with barb activity? Excellent game from him. I don't know how replicable his religious spread was, though, and he could have a lot more trouble if it doesn't spread as reliably in alternate histories. The attack on Sury was pretty impeccably timed as well. Brennus clearly had more of a chance on this map than I thought, but I also wouldn't be surprised if he looks a lot worse in the AHs than he did here.
I think De Gaulle's position was good overall, but he misplayed it horribly. My support of him, of course, partially rested on the assumption that he would play a competent opening, so that's where that went wrong. He almost turned it around, though, and I think he'll do significantly better in AHs.
Willem had a worst-case scenario but dug his own grave with his habitual under-expansion. (Is that something in the AI coding? Because it seems to happen pretty frequently with the Financial leaders in particular.) I think we can see him win some AHs when religious diplo works out better and he actually builds settlers, but I do still imagine that he'll die most of the time if he's not winning.
Alex had a stronger start than I expected and it made me feel like a snowball is possible for him. Cyrus similarly didn't ever crash his economy and could have really gone somewhere if he'd actually found a good place to strike and done so. So I think both have a chance, but they clearly messed it up this time. Alex I would expect to only rarely have things work out. Cyrus might be more consistent.
Finally, it should go without saying that Washington had more or less a best-case scenario; the deck was super stacked against him! This was undoubtedly an unlikely result and I would be pretty shocked now if he somehow won any AHs.
Looking forward to the playoffs!
Lots to report after this game. First, Suryavarman is now confirmed to be dropping back down to Pool Two for next season, having failed to score the single point needed in this game. That also probably secures Stalin's spot in Pool One for one more season; Gandhi and Mehmed are the only close leaders still able to play, and I don't fancy either of their odds. Perhaps Pericles or Churchill could manage it if they went totally nuts in the playoff round, but I tend to doubt that this will actually happen.
Cyrus has secured a spot in Pool Two! His two extra points leapfrogged him ahead of Mehmed and Charlemagne, now in the #12 overall seed, so he's safe for now. Alexander's kill steal also proved highly significant in this regard, pushing him ahead of Charlemagne, Zara, and Louis XIV. Louis in particular is now out of the seeded leaders and potentially going to be the only unseeded champion next time. Zara is now on the bubble.
How likely are we to see the seeds shuffle any more this season? Pericles, Hammurabi, and Churchill are the only leaders in reach by a single good game. Somebody could sweep the rest of the season and leap in... but I rather doubt that we will see this happen. I doubt there's going to be a lot more of this going on over the last four weeks of competition.
I am up too late and tired after staying up to knock out the entire game tonight, so I will try to keep this brief. (Update: Not particularly successful.)
I feel vindicated in my doubts about Suryavarman's position and think he will not do well in the Alternate Histories. The barb pressure, slow-starting jungle cities, and dogpile potential are all going to be regular elements, and my understanding is that he's pretty likely to frequently found an opening religion as well, which clearly does more harm than good. Even if he gets a decent number of converts in other replays (not too likely since the barbs will stop him from actively playing a part in this), simply turning Brennus into an enemy is a problem enough. Given we saw it in the opening round as well, I think the Archery avoidance is a serious problem and it certainly makes the barbs that much worse. Sury further had a relatively good diplo game in terms of actual wars declared against him: Brennus was the only one. Alex or Willem would surely like a piece of him in some of the replays, right? Overall just not a good position; not necessarily unwinnable, but he won't be winning much.
On the other hand, it is clear that I underestimated Brennus. He didn't seem to mind the barbs at all and his consistent economic strength in particular was a surprise; I guess the seafood + floodplains were just good for that even with barb activity? Excellent game from him. I don't know how replicable his religious spread was, though, and he could have a lot more trouble if it doesn't spread as reliably in alternate histories. The attack on Sury was pretty impeccably timed as well. Brennus clearly had more of a chance on this map than I thought, but I also wouldn't be surprised if he looks a lot worse in the AHs than he did here.
I think De Gaulle's position was good overall, but he misplayed it horribly. My support of him, of course, partially rested on the assumption that he would play a competent opening, so that's where that went wrong. He almost turned it around, though, and I think he'll do significantly better in AHs.
Willem had a worst-case scenario but dug his own grave with his habitual under-expansion. (Is that something in the AI coding? Because it seems to happen pretty frequently with the Financial leaders in particular.) I think we can see him win some AHs when religious diplo works out better and he actually builds settlers, but I do still imagine that he'll die most of the time if he's not winning.
Alex had a stronger start than I expected and it made me feel like a snowball is possible for him. Cyrus similarly didn't ever crash his economy and could have really gone somewhere if he'd actually found a good place to strike and done so. So I think both have a chance, but they clearly messed it up this time. Alex I would expect to only rarely have things work out. Cyrus might be more consistent.
Finally, it should go without saying that Washington had more or less a best-case scenario; the deck was super stacked against him! This was undoubtedly an unlikely result and I would be pretty shocked now if he somehow won any AHs.
Looking forward to the playoffs!
Keler
Prince
Willem ruined De Gaulle's game completely. I think that was big. I can otherwise see a slower collapse of Suryavarman and Washington losing 1 or 2 cities in French border.
Cyrus was almost a clone performance of Joao from last wildcard game. Pretty boring and useless.
I think there will be even games where Brennus doesn't go religion too.
Cyrus was almost a clone performance of Joao from last wildcard game. Pretty boring and useless.
I think there will be even games where Brennus doesn't go religion too.
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