Sullla's AI Survivor Season Seven - Game 3 Thread

[Fippy]

Game Three scheduled for 21 April 2023 at Noon EST

Just opening it up early for some predictions, link: https://sullla.com/Civ4/civ4survivor7-3-preview.html

Make Your Predictions Here

Justi on upset alert? No copper and surrounded by crazies
He also starts with neither mining for his gold or agri for corn, and will almost certainly go reli first.

Moderator Action: Edited to add some bits - cheers lymond

 

[Saxo Grammaticus]

I have been rooting fairly hard against the seeded leaders, but I don't think we're in for an upset this game

 

[AcaMetis]

First rule of Civ IV AI: They will always find a way to surprise, or at least disappoint

 

[Fippy]

Oh and something else, if anyone picks Ragnar you get the special bravery medal - after what he has shown in past games.

 

[lymond]

Just at a quick glance, I think Rags could be a dark horse here. Land is not spectacular, but I think that not having metals too early will allow him to build up more early on instead of doing his usual craziness....plus, he seems relatively safe over there. He will likely get Justy's reli. He could, ofc, go after Justy first but Justy usually holds his own.

Vicky seems like she'd be so good on paper, but just never lives up to her potential. Her start is not great either.

Zara start is not great but he appears to have some good land to settle

edit: ha..just posted same time as My....GO RAGS!!!

 

[Nick723]

That double corn, gold and copper spot to the west of Zara is seriously tasty

 

[need my speed]

Fine, I'll make a post - Zara. Of course. One of the very few AIs that consistently does very well, regardless of surrounding civilisations (as in, peaceful or warlike). He has floodplains, he has resources, he has everything. He should be able to survive Alexander if Alexander turns on him (and if Alexander turns on Justinian, Justinian should usually win that and take over Alexander - then it becomes interesting; a huge Justinian versus Zara Yaqob). Neither Zara nor Justinian can use religion to form a block with Alexander (nor with Ragnar for Justinian), as Alexander (and Ragnar) is/are too warmongery for it. But Zara could become friends with Victoria through religion, and they can both tech nicely to win. Ragnar, Victoria, and De Gaulle are always disappointing leaders sitting in their own corner amounting to nothing much (well, Ragnar will declare war, promptly die, and then survive in a corner of his own making, or die).

 

[Fippy]

One thing that we constantly see is how too much food doesn't help deity AIs.
Their cities grow fast either way (i think they need only ~50% of what humans need on the food bar), there's no share this food with your other city in the code (new cities get already used tiles only if they are first ring), and they un-work them even while building settlers & workers at the happy cap (all that stupidity we see from city governors in our games if we leave them on).

 

[Saxo Grammaticus]

Preview is up on YouTube.

 

[Keler]

At this point I have no motivation left for prediction after witnessing some bizarre unlike outcomes for first 2 games. Just like mansa musa's ridiculous season 6 championship victory. But anyway.
For logic sake can history repeat itself?
Season 5 game 7 vibes anyone?
Here is my prediction.
Alexander Domination victory turn 307
De Gaulle runner up
Victoria first to die.
10 wars.
I just see that aggressive AI + No tech trading options make what many consider as good peacewight 6 AIs into dump. Pericles, Joao, Zara, Ramesses. They all become mediocre and less of a threat for warmongers.
As for the game once Justinian shares his boring religion to Alexander, he is essentially out and useless. He will end up waiting Alexander eat his east and come at him at last. Ragnar or De Gaulle for other religion may occur. But whatever happens once De Gaulle find himself dogpiling Victoria together with Alexander, their seperate religions won't cause trouble between them until all others die. So that explains my prediction hopefully.

 

[ManiaMuse89]

I think the one certain thing is that game 3 will not be a culture or space win with the number of agressive leaders and juicy, high peaceweight targets.

My thoughts are:

- 95% chance domination victory, 5% chance diplomatic victory (diplomination)
- 70% chance victory will be one of Alex or De Gaul
- 30% chance victory will be one of Justinia, Ragnar or Vicky
- Vicky's only hope is to manage to out-expand the other AIs and survive the early game to get a military tech advantage
- Zara has basically zero chance to win but could get a 2nd place if things go his way and he stays out of trouble

 

[dankok8]

i like Alex here with Iron in the BFC and also Gold which will help early research and happiness. Due to Justinian's military flavors and lower PW I think he's safer than Zara who could face a similar fate as he did against Alex before. If Zara delays Iron Working he could be staring down an early Green invasion and collapse completely. Also don't like Justinian given he has Ragnar and Alex around him. I think he struggles to break out. Vicky is my darkhorse pick. Copper in BFC and lots of space. But not so confident. She has a high PW so will have a bullseye on her back. And I'm not counting on De Gaulle to do squat.

Prediction:
Alex 1st Domination
Ragnar 2nd
Zara FTD

 

[danjuno]

1st: Zara
2nd: Alex
FTD: De Gaulle

Could easily substitute Justinian for Zara, but I like Zara's land better. Point is, whoever converts Alex first gets him as an attack dog against the other. Alex isn't smart enough to win on his own, though. De Gaulle is De Gaulle, so I expect him to piss everyone else off and die. Vicky could go nuts like the last game she shared with Justinian, but it seemed like a fluke more than anything else.

 

[ManiaMuse89]

1st - De Gaul
2nd - Ragnar
FTD - Vicky
Domination
10 Wars
T292

Yeah might seem a bit mad but I think that Justinian is way overrated (think he was 55% of picks when I submitted my votes), particularly up against this set of aggressive, unit-spamming AIs. Justinian is also guaranteed to found a religion which is is going to make at least one of the aggressive AIs hate him (not that it really matters, Alex/De Gaul/Ragnar all declare at pleased). That ironically also works against him because he does not declare at pleased so can end up being a bit passive or not able to join in dogpiles against a leader who shares his religion when their territory is being carved up.

Vicky just has a hopeless peaceweight position. I don't think she is a terrible leader but early game 2v1s or 3v1s are difficult to cope with for any AIs.

Zara is just an average leader. Probably competent enough to survive the early game especially with his creative city defenses (creative + stele) but feel like his head will be up on the chopping block at some point and he will not have enough units to survive against it. Domination will come long before anyone has a chance to launch a ship.

 

[Fippy]

ManiaMuse gets the bravery medal i mentioned.
Yup it's not Rags first..but DG? Just as bad / good

 

[danjuno]

Nobody saw Hanny coming last game, so I have no real expectations, especially with this crowd.

 

[ManiaMuse89]

ManiaMuse gets the bravery medal i mentioned.
Yup it's not Rags first..but DG? Just as bad / good

Well I got Hammy right for first in game one (then flopped by following the crowd with Mansa in game two).

Seriously I think Justinian is not as as good as some people think and is going to struggle to find his killer instinct in this field. Past AI survivor is not that big a sample size really. All one of the warmonger AIs needs to do is take over Vicky's imperialistic settler lands to get the ball rolling and then they just got from there. Size does matter (unless you are an era behind in tech like Shaka).

Second place is very likely going to be an undeserving AI but all they really need to do is become friends with the big dog AI which they probably will with all the dogpiles and mutual military struggle bonuses.

 

[AcaMetis]

My only hope for this game is that it's going to be another wild ride. Seeing

Spoiler :

Gandhi declare war against his religious ally, and others

in game one was just peak.

 

[dankok8]

 

[AcaMetis]

I don't remember the last time I saw an AI raze a city it captured, bar cities that were auto-razed due to never growing past size 1.