[RD] Super Tuesday

[civman110]

If he's deluding himself, why would you want to change his mind? Think about it.

I don't care what he thinks. This is just entertainment for me.

I like bursting his bubble and watching him scramble to try and deny reality. The insular thinking amongst the far-left can be comical at times.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

If he's deluding himself, why would you want to change his mind? Think about it.

Megalomania always demands agreement, no matter how absurd the premise.

 

[Nexlev]

As I said in another thread, I'm 99% sure that Trump will be the nominee, but I can't help spending 50% of my time talking about the 1% chance he doesn't.

We've talked about what scenarios would be needed for X candidate to beat Trump, what I think it's really down to is the scenario that would make Trump NOT win, and nobody else either.

To use a football anology, it's like week 15 of the regular season and for the Bears to make the playoffs, they need the Lions to beat the Packers and the Bengals to beat the Cowboys with the 49ers/Rams game ending in a tie.

There isn't a non-trump republican candidate left who controls their own destiny, imo. Cruz "needs" Rubio to win Florida and/or Georgia, or pull delegates from Trump. Kasich winning Ohio and/or Michigan would help Rubio and/or Cruz. Cruz winning Texas helps Cruz the most, but also helps the others by keeping Trump from claiming the crown too quickly. We're down to a war of attrition while the GOP hopes and prays to discover nukes in time. or whatever.

 

[civman110]

As I said in another thread, I'm 99% sure that Trump will be the nominee, but I can't help spending 50% of my time talking about the 1% chance he doesn't.

We've talked about what scenarios would be needed for X candidate to beat Trump, what I think it's really down to is the scenario that would make Trump NOT win, and nobody else either.

To use a football anology, it's like week 15 of the regular season and for the Bears to make the playoffs, they need the Lions to beat the Packers and the Bengals to beat the Cowboys with the 49ers/Rams game ending in a tie.

There isn't a non-trump republican candidate left who controls their own destiny, imo. Cruz "needs" Rubio to win Florida and/or Georgia, or pull delegates from Trump. Kasich winning Ohio and/or Michigan would help Rubio and/or Cruz. Cruz winning Texas helps Cruz the most, but also helps the others by keeping Trump from claiming the crown too quickly. We're down to a war of attrition while the GOP hopes and prays to discover nukes in time. or whatever.

That's how I see it as well. Good analogy.

 

[Leoreth]

And what will be the effect of a campaign against him.

As has been pointed out the past couple days, Drumpf has a veritable ton of ammunition that he has produced to be used against him. For whatever reason the rest of the GOP candidates never fired a shot until very recently. It is an absolute truth that if he is the nominee the Democrats will not treat him so kindly.

Interviews with parties to the lawsuit against Drumpf University.

Interviews with people who lost their retirement savings on fraudulent Drumpf properties.

Examination in detail of the Drumpf businesses that went bankrupt, including how much got liquidated into Drumpf's personal fortune and how much of a bath was taken by the shareholders.

Drumpf's involvement in importing workers since no Americans would take the pay he offered.

On and on and on.

I don't know if it's smart to focus too much on these things in campaigning. Rubio tried the same and it didn't work (although it being Rubio and the general timing obviously also played a role).

From the beginning Trump didn't set himself up to follow a higher standard. He'll just wave those things away, assert that nobody cares and come up with shallow excuses that his followers eat up. To undecided voters you make it appear like you cannot beat him on policy or skill.

But Hillary can. She can expose his lack of program and experience for what they are. This seems the better approach to take.

You wouldn't know this because you only stay within your own little leftist echo chamber.

Trump repeats that every chance he gets, I doubt there's anyone who doesn't know.

By the way, the demographics of 34,000 GOP caucus goers is what we call "too small a sample to support a conclusion."

The sample size is probably fine, but the sample set is obviously not representative.

If you think Nevada Republican caucus goers are representative of their state let alone the nation, you should not accuse others of being in an echo chamber.

 

[SupremacyKing2]

Category 1 - Loves Trump's TV show/character/persona, emotionally committed when he got in the race and is sticking with him no matter what.
Category 2 - Sick of losing with loser Republican politicians and thinks Trump's celebrity can carry them to victory... finally, so is sticking with him no matter what.
Category 3 - Feels demonized by the media, betrayed by the Republican party and is fed up with political correctness, so they absolutely refuse to vote for anyone associated with the establishment.
Category 4 - Fed up with Washington in general, so they absolutely refuse to vote for another career politician.

Or any combination of the above.

Honestly, I think all the above categories are bad reasons to vote for a candidate.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

As I said in another thread, I'm 99% sure that Trump will be the nominee, but I can't help spending 50% of my time talking about the 1% chance he doesn't.

We've talked about what scenarios would be needed for X candidate to beat Trump, what I think it's really down to is the scenario that would make Trump NOT win, and nobody else either.

To use a football anology, it's like week 15 of the regular season and for the Bears to make the playoffs, they need the Lions to beat the Packers and the Bengals to beat the Cowboys with the 49ers/Rams game ending in a tie.

There isn't a non-trump republican candidate left who controls their own destiny, imo. Cruz "needs" Rubio to win Florida and/or Georgia, or pull delegates from Trump. Kasich winning Ohio and/or Michigan would help Rubio and/or Cruz. Cruz winning Texas helps Cruz the most, but also helps the others by keeping Trump from claiming the crown too quickly. We're down to a war of attrition while the GOP hopes and prays to discover nukes in time. or whatever.

No one but Drumpf has any path to a first ballot nomination. The only way Drumpf is not the nominee is for enough people to pull enough delegates in different arenas to keep him from putting together that first ballot nomination.

If Cruz and Rubio can draw enough delegates in today's "SEC primary," then Kasich can start cutting some delegates in states where the twin teahadists aren't going to draw so Drumpf doesn't accumulate all of those there is a chance.

 

[gay_Aleks]

Why don't we agree that America is one giant echo-chamber and satisfy everyone?

 

[Leoreth]

Why don't we agree that America is one giant echo-chamber and satisfy everyone?

Then it must be an echo chamber with terrible isolation because you can still hear them loudly all the way across the pond.

 

[gay_Aleks]

It's either the isolation, or the fact they dug a tunnel through the Earth to invade some foreigners.

 

[GoodEnoughForMe]

That's just us amplifying our own voices so the world hears us.

 

[Archbob]

Today could be the beginning of the end for the GOP.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

The sample size is probably fine, but the sample set is obviously not representative.

If you think Nevada Republican caucus goers are representative of their state let alone the nation, you should not accuse others of being in an echo chamber.

Poorly worded on my part. But since it was aimed at CivMan rationality isn't really an issue.

The point is that when the Drumpf camp talks about "winning the Hispanic vote in Nevada" it has to be noted that five Hispanic voters out of six did NOT vote for Drumpf.

 

[whyidie]

I don't know if it's smart to focus too much on these things in campaigning. Rubio tried the same and it didn't work (although it being Rubio and the general timing obviously also played a role).

From the beginning Trump didn't set himself up to follow a higher standard. He'll just wave those things away, assert that nobody cares and come up with shallow excuses that his followers eat up. To undecided voters you make it appear like you cannot beat him on policy or skill.

But Hillary can. She can expose his lack of program and experience for what they are. This seems the better approach to take.

You do both. Hit him on policy in debates and have surrogates and super-pacs point out the con-man for what he is in the media.

Rubio started too late. The opposition file on Trump has got to be the single greatest treasure trove in politics since..ever ?

Yet the Republicans didn't start going after him until after South Carolina. I'm not questioning the why, just pointing out that he hasn't faced a sustained attack yet.

 

[Nexlev]

Why don't we agree that America is one giant echo-chamber and satisfy everyone?

Nobody tells me what to do.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

I don't know if it's smart to focus too much on these things in campaigning. Rubio tried the same and it didn't work (although it being Rubio and the general timing obviously also played a role).

From the beginning Trump didn't set himself up to follow a higher standard. He'll just wave those things away, assert that nobody cares and come up with shallow excuses that his followers eat up. To undecided voters you make it appear like you cannot beat him on policy or skill.

But Hillary can. She can expose his lack of program and experience for what they are. This seems the better approach to take.

The thing about oppo research is that the candidate is not the release point. Give it to the media. The Republicans did it too late, but the media now has the bit in their teeth. Instead of ten minute segments of "What amazing crowds Drumpf draws at his rallies! Has there ever been such a man of the people?" the news channels are now spending ten minute segments with Trump supporters parsing out how Drumpf couldn't hear the question despite the fact that he did repeat the question back.

 

[onejayhawk]

Why don't we agree that America is one giant echo-chamber and satisfy everyone?

On that general theme, 538 has a new article.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/super-tuesday-economy/

[T]he dozen states voting today offer a much wider range of perspectives on an economy that has shown significant improvement in recent years but is still leaving many Americans anxious about the future. The results, therefore, could serve as a crucial window into how voters in different types of states are responding to the candidates. Does Sanders do better or worse in states that are struggling economically? Do Trump’s protectionist policy proposals resonate in places that have lost jobs to overseas competition? Does John Kasich’s more optimistic message play better in states that have seen stronger recoveries?​

In general, it is about how today's voting will reflect the mood of the nation concerning the economy.

J

 

[Takhisis]

Today could be the beginning of the end for the GOP.

Do you really think they can't survive? There's a plurality of voters going to Drumpf in any event today. Granted, it might turn into an outright majority after today if he snowballs, but I've seen so many silent majorities siding with anyone this week that there'd have to be 235% of the electorate voting to make all claims true.
Then there's a lot of teahadists and so on. That will translate into a lot of votes for governors and also legislators at all three levels of government. They will have a lot of clout, even if Drumpf does somehow win the presidential election (which I don't think he will do) he'd have to deal with them. If he doesn't, then they still remain and the GOP remains extreme. I don't think Drumpf has the strength (at least not yet) to head his own splinter. Especially if/after he loses the election in November, supposing he gets there.

 

[gay_Aleks]

How strange, people cast their votes based on their socio-economical status! This is almost unbelievable!

 

[Leoreth]

You do both. Hit him on policy in debates and have surrogates and super-pacs point out the con-man for what he is in the media.

The thing about oppo research is that the candidate is not the release point. Give it to the media.

You're right, that is the smarter way to do it.