[RD] Super Tuesday

[Kozmos]

Today could be the beginning of the end for the GOP.

The demographic trends were unfavorable to them for a looong time.

 

[onejayhawk]

Do you really think they can't survive? There's a plurality of voters going to Drumpf in any event today. Granted, it might turn into an outright majority after today if he snowballs, but I've seen so many silent majorities siding with anyone this week that there'd have to be 235% of the electorate voting to make all claims true.
Then there's a lot of teahadists and so on. That will translate into a lot of votes for governors and also legislators at all three levels of government. They will have a lot of clout, even if Drumpf does somehow win the presidential election (which I don't think he will do) he'd have to deal with them. If he doesn't, then they still remain and the GOP remains extreme. I don't think Drumpf has the strength (at least not yet) to head his own splinter. Especially if/after he loses the election in November, supposing he gets there.

The party is very healthy. Look at their performance in the down-ballot races. What we have this year is a struggle for control.

The demographic trends were unfavorable to them for a looong time.

Why have the Republicans been dominating at the local and state level for such a loooong time?

J

 

[Kozmos]

Gerrymandering? Duh.

 

[Nexlev]

No one but Drumpf has any path to a first ballot nomination. The only way Drumpf is not the nominee is for enough people to pull enough delegates in different arenas to keep him from putting together that first ballot nomination.

I think the candidates have accepted this as well.

Kasich, when asked how he expected to do on super tuesday, said 'nobody will win but Trump' (paraphrasing).

Rubio has gone to full attack mode, full-time. Not even trying to build his own case anymore. I honestly think he's just trying to hurt Trump at whatever cost to his own case.

Cruz is still being stubborn, but at least is showing a truce with Rubio. I think deep down he knows he has no shot, but is too stubborn to give up. I expect Dr. Seuss readings on the campaign trail shortly.

Carson is clearly in it for ulterior motives. book tour? I doubt it because: not cost-effective. Long term media exposure / name recognition? More likely. To influence the narrative with his own personal convictions? Also seems likely.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

Today could be the beginning of the end for the GOP.

More like the middle of the end. Their death spiral is well established, not just getting started. Trump is a good accelerant though, no question.

 

[onejayhawk]

More like the middle of the end. Their death spiral is well established, not just getting started. Trump is a good accelerant though, no question.

Unreal. You say this while the party is overrunning everything but the White House.

Gerrymandering? Duh.

Correct. Gerrymandering is a false knee-jerk reaction. It does not apply at the state and local level, but it is not even true of the House of Representatives.

J

 

[GoodEnoughForMe]

The death of any party or ideology is melodrama of the highest order, usually. The Republican party will still be more than around.

 

[onejayhawk]

The death of any party or ideology is melodrama of the highest order, usually. The Republican party will still be more than around.

Will the Democratic party? They are nearly as caught up in the populist revolt as the Republicans, but they do not have the rank and file depth.

J

 

[Takhisis]

The party is very healthy. Look at their performance in the down-ballot races. What we have this year is a struggle for control.

Probably. The party structure isn't yet destroyed, it's just not a monolithic bloc as it was under the Bush presidency.

Will the Democratic party? They are nearly as caught up in the populist revolt as the Republicans, but they do not have the rank and file depth.

I suspect that they will. Yes.

 

[GoodEnoughForMe]

Will the Democratic party? They are nearly as caught up in the populist revolt as the Republicans, but they do not have the rank and file depth.

J

Sure. Right now they have strengths and weaknesses just like Republicans. They do well among growing demographics and millennials, they do poorly in state elections and don't appear to have carried the millennial lead to the younger generation. Neither is a guaranteed blue wall nor an end to the party, but it's clear their performance over the last several years has largely been worse than Republicans.

 

[onejayhawk]

Probably. The party structure isn't yet destroyed, it's just not a monolithic bloc as it was under the Bush presidency.

That was the best joke I have seen this week.

Sure. Right now they have strengths and weaknesses just like Republicans. They do well among growing demographics and millennials, they do poorly in state elections and don't appear to have carried the millennial lead to the younger generation. Neither is a guaranteed blue wall nor an end to the party, but it's clear their performance over the last several years has largely been worse than Republicans.

The question is, why do they do so poorly in state elections?

J

 

[Nexlev]

Probably. The party structure isn't yet destroyed, it's just not a monolithic bloc as it was under the Bush presidency.

Do you remember the primary battle between Bush and McCain?

McCain was very much seen as an outsider and a threat to the establishment.

Or how about... Bush and Perot?

This internal squabble in the GOP is not anything new, just a more fierce battle than before. Nor does it signal the end of the GOP, but if you want to speculate that it's the beginning of the end, I won't stop you.

 

[GoodEnoughForMe]

The question is, why do they do so poorly in state elections?

J

There are a lot of Republicans/conservatives in America. The weird assumptions some leftists make about America being more liberal or something is off base. They do well because they have good state organization, are very successful in specific regions, and appeal still to a large segment of the population.

 

[onejayhawk]

There are a lot of Republicans/conservatives in America. The weird assumptions some leftists make about America being more liberal or something is off base. They do well because they have good state organization, are very successful in specific regions, and appeal still to a large segment of the population.

In other words, the Republicans are more like the nation than the Democrats.

J

 

[GoodEnoughForMe]

In other words, the Republicans are more like the nation than the Democrats.

J

I wouldn't go that far. The pure number of votes the Democrats got in congressional elections was very competitive. And as recently as 2008, we could absolutely flip this conversation the other way. Americans have been really bad at voicing much of a consistent message about the role of government since the recession.

 

[civman110]

I wouldn't go that far. The pure number of votes the Democrats got in congressional elections was very competitive. And as recently as 2008, we could absolutely flip this conversation the other way. Americans have been really bad at voicing much of a consistent message about the role of government since the recession.

The problem with the Democrats is many people on the left only vote for them because the Dems support one of their "pet causes." IMO, the right is much more aligned in terms of a unifying ideology, rather than a collection of unrelated "pet causes." There's also lot of inconsistency in the left in regards to social issues because of this.

I think this why J is describing the right as "more like a nation" because they have a unifying ideology for how a nation should be and function.

 

[Flying Pig]

From listening to the supporters of (e.g.) Trump and Carson, it sounds like most of them deliberately don't have an ideology - they're people who don't have much time for the details of policy or discussions about facts, figures and so on, but quite like messages like 'our candidate is tough' and 'we're going to start winning again'.

 

[civman110]

From listening to the supporters of (e.g.) Trump and Carson, it sounds like most of them deliberately don't have an ideology - they're people who don't have much time for the details of policy or discussions about facts, figures and so on, but quite like messages like 'our candidate is tough' and 'we're going to start winning again'.

And who do you think they want to "win against?" While they come out to vote in record numbers.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

In other words, the Republicans are more like the nation than the Democrats.

J

"The" nation is extremely polarized. There is no doubt that the Republicans, with their failed economic policies and jingoist nationalism, accurately represent slightly less than half of the population overall, which is a majority in a large swath of the country that is mired deeply in the industrial age. The Democratic party, for their part, accurately represent slightly more than half the population with their modern economic policies that are better suited to the current era and their humanitarianism.

At the end of the day nothing can save the great age of industry, including the nostalgia of the Republicans.

 

[civman110]

The Democratic party, for their part, accurately represent slightly more than half the population with their modern economic policies that are better suited to the current era and their humanitarianism.

At the end of the day nothing can save the great age of industry, including the nostalgia of the Republicans.

Question: How do you suppose you have an economy and surplus resources for humanitarianism without industry? Even the Soviets believed heavily in industry.

This just demonstrates a total lack in understating when it comes to economics in general on your part, but yet you are convinced that your train of thought is the keys to the kingdom.

Interesting.