The "not Romney" wave cycle

[JollyRoger]

Because they are so far behind overall?

Romney is still a long ways from getting enough delegates. If he doesn't make it to the convention with enough, anything could happen and the more delegates you get by hanging in there, the better chance that you can be a power broker. The way Romney can shut them down is to stop losing to them in Republican strongholds.

 

[kochman]

Romney is still a long ways from getting enough delegates. If he doesn't make it to the convention with enough, anything could happen and the more delegates you get by hanging in there, the better chance that you can be a power broker. The way Romney can shut them down is to stop losing to them in Republican strongholds.

To do that he would have to make himself unattractive to independents, but he's smarter than that.

 

[Antilogic]

Yeah, but we're talking about the anti-Romney here. If people are still following Gingrich at this point, I don't think we can trust them to go the sensible route.

Fair point, I don't have a comeback for that one.

Romney is still a long ways from getting enough delegates. If he doesn't make it to the convention with enough, anything could happen and the more delegates you get by hanging in there, the better chance that you can be a power broker. The way Romney can shut them down is to stop losing to them in Republican strongholds.

He's had an uncrackable base support that has been scoring at least 2nd place in every competition except for North Dakota and Minnesota. Even when he loses states, he picks up tons of delegates due to the state-specific proportional allocation rules. By my estimates with the NYTimes numbers, he needs 690 delegates of the 1,459 remaining, only 47%, to win. He's won about 55% so far. But that doesn't tell the whole story, you gotta look at which states are left.

He's heavily favored in the winner-take-all states (except for Pennsylvania, which I expect Santorum to have a good shot at) as well as California and New York (which are only matched by Texas in terms of delegates). Hell, even the primaries tomorrow night are a tossup according to the current polls--he could win in the South too or at least take a sizable fraction of the delegates. Super Tuesday was the last good chance for a big shake-up in this race.

 

[ParadigmShifter]

Obama to be re-elected and Hillary to win 2 terms afterwards. You heard it here first.

 

[Antilogic]

Obama to be re-elected and Hillary to win 2 terms afterwards. You heard it here first.

Yeah, I'm not buying that. Too bad I don't have $10k sitting around to bet with.

 

[Cutlass]

Yeah, Hillary will only get one term.

 

[Antilogic]

Yeah, Hillary will only get one term.

While it's kind of obvious this is tongue-in-cheek, I feel obliged to consider it seriously for a moment. It's not even clear Secretary Clinton would be running, much less win the primary in four years and then go on to win the general election. In the post-WW2 era, the Republicans have had the longest period of control of the White House; the Democrats have trouble winning 2-3 terms back-to-back, much less 4.

So yeah, if I had the money I would bet against the Democrats winning both 2016 and 2020.

 

[Cutlass]

While it's kind of obvious this is tongue-in-cheek, I feel obliged to consider it seriously for a moment. It's not even clear Secretary Clinton would be running, much less win the primary in four years and then go on to win the general election. In the post-WW2 era, the Republicans have had the longest period of control of the White House; the Democrats have trouble winning 2-3 terms back-to-back, much less 4.

So yeah, if I had the money I would bet against the Democrats winning both 2016 and 2020.

Well, if you're taking it seriously, then you really do need to consider whether Hillary has had enough. If she ran, I think she would be hard to beat for the nomination.

As for the general, the question becomes whether the Republicans win this time, and if they do not, do they learn the correct lesson from the loss? If they go even further wingnut, they could take a while to recover from that.

 

[JollyRoger]

He's had an uncrackable base support that has been scoring at least 2nd place

Good practice for the general election

 

[Antilogic]

Good practice for the general election

That's a different matter entirely.

Right now, I think the general election is still a coin flip.

 

[AlpsStranger]

Right now, I think the general election is still a coin flip.

I would have agreed wholeheartedly not long ago, but I think it's going to play out differently now. The Republican party can't keep the kook wing under control and it's going to cost them dearly. They've got the triceratops-saddlers and Illuminati-fighter types riled up now and they can't simply count on their votes. They'll have to actually *earn* them, and that's a scary prospect.

I wonder what percentage of the Republican base now believes that Breitbart was assassinated by the CIA?

 

[Ziggy Stardust]

You forget that while the Democrats will simply be voting for a president, the Republicans will be voting to save America.To them it's the difference between voting a guy who they didn't want to win the primary and North Korea.

 

[AlpsStranger]

You forget that while the Democrats will simply be voting for a president, the Republicans will be voting to save America.To them it's the difference between voting a guy who they didn't want to win the primary and North Korea.

This is true *if* they let Romney actually be the nominee without dragging him into the pig sty.

In my opinion, which I guess I don't expect anyone to hinge on, I think they're choosing between one of two defeats.

1) Romney gets the nomination, but he's screwed two-fold. He loses independents because they finally got him to say something beyond the pale, yet he also loses the hard crazies because he seems( and, in fact, is ) insincere in his support of the crazies.

2) Santorum or Gingrich gets the nomination somehow. This will put the shoe on the other foot and motivate a lot of the disappointed liberals who might otherwise sit the election out while sealing a lot of the independent votes Obama's way.

3) Ron Paul... ha ha, just kidding.

 

[Core Imposter]

Romney can't win versus Obama unless we get another recession and here I fully expect one but I can't be sure it will happen soon enough to close the gap.

The problem with a moderate/liberal republican is simply that as you can see by looking at the primaries, they get votes in the same precincts that always go for the democratic candidate. Romney is winning the urban vote. But he won't carry any of that in November. Rather than depending on his primary strenght he will instead have to hope to carry all the normal red states by default and hope to carry the swing states.

The problem is that without an energized base to support him he can't win the swing states. The mood here is disgust. I think he will have trouble raising money too.

He has been getting by thru massive negative ads buys right ahead of each primary against essentially unarmed competition. People are distainful of all of the other candidates but they would look completely different with real money behind them.

At this point I see only lose-lose scenerios for the country but the silver lining is that nobody that can claim to be a conservative will be in office when we finally learn what a financial catastrophe really is.

 

[kochman]

I would have agreed wholeheartedly not long ago, but I think it's going to play out differently now. The Republican party can't keep the kook wing under control and it's going to cost them dearly. They've got the triceratops-saddlers and Illuminati-fighter types riled up now and they can't simply count on their votes. They'll have to actually *earn* them, and that's a scary prospect.

I wonder what percentage of the Republican base now believes that Breitbart was assassinated by the CIA?

Sorry, but this just seems like a wing nut response.

Generally, and unfortunately, the people voting in primaries are registered republicans... which will include the "base" or the far right as some would call it.
These folks are not pleased with Romney, and keep throwing out someone more conservative in the vain hopes of beating him.
This happens every election cycle... and it doesn't cost them dearly. They won most presidential elections in recent history.
What evidence is there that the "triceratop saddlers (I don't even know what this means) and illuminati fighters" hold sway? They are not only a super small percentage of the USA, but also of the R party... most "illuminati fighters" would probably be libertarians anyhow.

 

[AlpsStranger]

Sorry, but this just seems like a wing nut response.

Maybe I suppose I could see that.

Generally, and unfortunately, the people voting in primaries are registered republicans... which will include the "base" or the far right as some would call it.
These folks are not pleased with Romney, and keep throwing out someone more conservative in the vain hopes of beating him.
This happens every election cycle... and it doesn't cost them dearly. They won most presidential elections in recent history.

I'm not sure this is the same. Granted, I'm not sure how mainstream Michael Savage is, but he seems to think it's possible/likely that Obama had Breitbart killed. Granted, the Left had some pretty crazy ideas when we were deep in the throes of Bush derangement.

What evidence is there that the "triceratop saddlers (I don't even know what this means) and illuminati fighters" hold sway? They are not only a super small percentage of the USA, but also of the R party... most "illuminati fighters" would probably be libertarians anyhow.

I'm talking about creationists and Alex Jones listeners. I'm sure they aren't a majority, but I think they do wield a lot of influence in the Republican primary.

 

[kochman]

It's unfortunate, in both parties, that generally, the farther element controls power... specifically because of the closed primaries, that they will defend tooth and nail, rather than loose power.

And yes, the Bush derrangement syndrome was outlandish, including claims he allowed 9/11 or even planned it...
You could tell he didn't simply by the famous video clip of him reading about ducks to the elementary school kids when he heard the news. Deer in the headlights.

Anyhow, Savage is a shock jock, who is not a repub (I don't think) but a libertarian who leans right right right... I find him entertaining! Hahahahaha... he's never on where I live though.

 

[Core Imposter]

Pretty strong wave for Santorum it seems.

Romney, it seems, is an inevitable loser.

 

[kramerfan86]

Romney will win the nomination, but the fact he just cant get the party to embrace him is a poor sign IMO.

 

[Cutlass]

But a Santorum win would be hilarious. So we have to hope for it.