The "not Romney" wave cycle

[Core Imposter]

I assume by "the people", you mean "registered Republicans in the deep South"?

By that I mean the majority of people who have voted thus far in Republican primaries.

Support has jumped everywhere but to the liberal Republicans, Romney and Huntsman, in this process.

Romney's support has been geographically consistent to precincts that are ultimately going to go for Obama in the fall. He literally has no constituency outside of the political establishment and the media, the 1%, Mormons, and northeastern liberal Republicans.

Absent a recession he will do worse than McCain.

 

[madviking]

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...ifferent-demographic-groups.html?ref=politics

 

[Core Imposter]

Both Fox and CNN continued last night and today to shill for Romney.

But, on local conservative radio I hear claims that some establishment types are talking to Newt in hopes of getting him out so that Mitt can sink or swim in a heads up match.

Not listening to Rush so I don't know what he is saying.

 

[kochman]

Well, bottom line is, Sanitorium is unelectable...
So, the Repubs scan shoot themselves in the foot by nominating him...

 

[.Shane.]

Well, bottom line is, Sanitorium is unelectable...
So, the Repubs scan shoot themselves in the foot by nominating him...

And Romney, in his bid to pander to the extreme right, is working very hard to make himself unelectable as well.

What's sad, from the GOP perspective, is if they didn't exist in labyrinth of self-defeating values pledges and no-tax declarations and making war on issues settled 50 years ago (contraception) and could field someone even barely-to-somewhat moderate *does the finger pinching thing* they have a very winnable chance here.

Instead, Obama is going to be whoever they run (short of a game-changing event between now and then) and they are going to harm their slate of House and Senate candidates by following all these regressive tactics.

 

[kochman]

I don't think it's so clear... and I don't think Romney is pandering too hard to the hard right because he knows they won't accept him and it will cost him independents.

The hard right will vote for Romney simply for not being Obama, and I think he's got his finger on the pulse of the sentiment of his party enough to realize that.

It'll be a contest, in the end, for the independents... it always is.

 

[IdiotsOpposite]

If Mitt Romney would just stop saying stupid things and flip-flopping at every opportunity, I'd seriously consider voting for him...

 

[downtown]

Gingrich, in the brokered convention with 4 candidates scenario, would be the #1 kingmaker since he would have the third-most delegates under his control and could thus be a significant asset to either Romney or Santorum. However, I don't think this is a particularly likely scenario.

I can think of no realistic scenario that gives Santorum the nomination outright. His only chance is to force a brokered convention, and to get close enough to 1,144 that he can cut a deal for Gingrich's or Paul's delegates to push him over on a later ballot.

Yeah, thats actually likely going to be the case for all of them, unless Mitt can convince previously pledged delegates to switch to him to avoid a brokered convention. Interestingly, Ron Paul could be the key guy that gets Mitt Romney over the top.

I think Newt wants to be Rick Santorum's VP lol.

Romney's support has been geographically consistent to precincts that are ultimately going to go for Obama in the fall. He literally has no constituency outside of the political establishment and the media, the 1%, Mormons, and northeastern liberal Republicans.

Absent a recession he will do worse than McCain.

What states do you think McCain won in 2008 that Romney would lose?

 

[.Shane.]

It'll be a contest, in the end, for the independents... it always is.

Essentially true, but if the base is too disappointed w/ the candidate, this can also depress turn out. Don't be shocked if this contributes to the loss as well.

 

[Cutlass]

Essentially true, but if the base is too disappointed w/ the candidate, this can also depress turn out. Don't be shocked if this contributes to the loss as well.

What if both bases are too disappointed? Looks like we may be going for that this year.

 

[kochman]

What if both bases are too disappointed? Looks like we may be going for that this year.

This may be the case... and independents too...
I know this much, if Romney's not an option, I'm not bothering to vote...
Consider me in the "independent" base I guess...

These other repubs are just nowhere near acceptable... in particular Sanitorium.

 

[.Shane.]

What if both bases are too disappointed? Looks like we may be going for that this year.

The Repubs have enraged certain elements of the Dem base. This whole mess over birth control is going to come back to haunt them.

Whereas the right base has engragement fatigue, at least over Obama. Remember the presence of the Tea Party prior to the midterms? Where are they now? Will they show up in the months before the election? I doubt it.

 

[AlpsStranger]

The Repubs have enraged certain elements of the Dem base. This whole mess over birth control is going to come back to haunt them.

Whereas the right base has engragement fatigue, at least over Obama. Remember the presence of the Tea Party prior to the midterms? Where are they now? Will they show up in the months before the election? I doubt it.

OTOH, I'd bet that at least 3 or 4 percent of Republican voters now think that Obama is the Manchurian robot Muslim Atheist Antichrist.

 

[madviking]

The Repubs have enraged certain elements of the Dem base. This whole mess over birth control is going to come back to haunt them.

Whereas the right base has engragement fatigue, at least over Obama. Remember the presence of the Tea Party prior to the midterms? Where are they now? Will they show up in the months before the election? I doubt it.

Not to mention the governors of Ohio, Florida, Wisconsin, and even Virginia have been huge dicks in huge swing states.

 

[AlpsStranger]

Not to mention the governors of Ohio, Florida, Wisconsin, and even Virginia have been huge dicks in huge swing states.

I got a little dyslexic when I saw "swing," "huge," and "dick" close together. I LOLed, as they say.

 

[Neonanocyborgasm]

I don't really think the Mormon factor has much to do with it. Evangelical Christians are showing their religious objections very strangely by voting for a couple Catholics in Gingrich and Santorum.

What do you think this whole controversy over efforts at a "conservative alternative" are? Romney couldn't be a better poster boy for the 21st century right wing, except that The Base cannot tolerate someone who is not a Christian (to them). The code words I've heard used sound an awful lot like (religious) bigotry to me, which is fitting as that's all The Base of the Republican party has been reduced to. The election of 2008 was consumed with rumors by the right that Obama was a secret Muslim, as if being Muslim should be cause for suspicion of anything. All Republican primaries operate the same. There is a front-runner early that eclipses his contenders. Not the case this time.

 

[Antilogic]

Well, bottom line is, Sanitorium is unelectable...
So, the Repubs scan shoot themselves in the foot by nominating him...

I've noted before that it might be worth it for the Republican party to nominate someone like Santorum, who might get an extra percentage point or two in competitive Midwestern states and sacrificing maybe 5 or even 10 points in New England or California where they likely won't win anyway. And I think that Pennsylvania, if Santorum is the candidate, has a greater chance of going Republican than Massachusetts if Romney is the candidate.

Yeah, thats actually likely going to be the case for all of them, unless Mitt can convince previously pledged delegates to switch to him to avoid a brokered convention. Interestingly, Ron Paul could be the key guy that gets Mitt Romney over the top.

I think Newt wants to be Rick Santorum's VP lol.


What states do you think McCain won in 2008 that Romney would lose?

I think the superdelegates would be Romney's first go-to for a few extra votes. If he rolls into the convention with 1,140 votes, I'd expect at least 4 of the superdelegates to switch their support to him so he wins on first ballot. Paul's position has been weakened without winning states, but if anyone is within 50-60 or so delegates of victory, he's an option. Gingrich, who could win up to 200 delegates or so if he stays in, would be in a much better position to broker a deal. It's possible Gingrich could barter for a VP slot with his delegates, or secretary of whatever he wanted.

McCain won Missouri by 0.14%, and since Romney's weakness appears to be the Midwest, this might be a candidate. Montana was a 2.25% victory in favor of McCain, but I can't see an easy argument as to why that would flip unless you are convinced Romney is such a worse candidate than McCain he would lose it.

 

[.Shane.]

OTOH, I'd bet that at least 3 or 4 percent of Republican voters now think that Obama is the Manchurian robot Muslim Atheist Antichrist.

They hated him just as much in 2008. There's no gain for the GOP, here, in 2012.

Not to mention the governors of Ohio, Florida, Wisconsin, and even Virginia have been huge dicks in huge swing states.

Good point. This is also not helping.

As usual, the Dems are bad at exploiting GOP blunderings.

 

[kochman]

I've noted before that it might be worth it for the Republican party to nominate someone like Santorum, who might get an extra percentage point or two in competitive Midwestern states and sacrificing maybe 5 or even 10 points in New England or California where they likely won't win anyway. And I think that Pennsylvania, if Santorum is the candidate, has a greater chance of going Republican than Massachusetts if Romney is the candidate.

Sanitorium got killed in his last senate bid in PA... slaughtered. There is more than one reason... such as, most Repubs got slaughtered in that election in states anywhere near purple... but more importantly, the people knew him better by then. He lost by 16 or 18 points I believe.
I think Romney would do way better in PA... based on being more moderate, and a lot of anti-Obama angst with the coal industry, etc. However, Romney not being the most union friendly would hurt him.

Could Romney win Mass? Maybe... very tough sell there... solidly blue state, and while he did win it at the state level, it's different.
Romney wins N Hampshire, Maine... maybe Rhode Island... loses CT, NY...

Midwestern states are fed up with Obama, generally speaking. Iowa would be a toss up... IN and OH, Romney's... Could Romney win MI? Maybe... He's known there, his dad, etc... They've been tipping more conservative than previously. Wisconsin? Maybe, also leaning more conservative recently... Illinios? Hahahahaha, no way. Missouri? Yes, Obama's lost ground there. KS & the other farm states... yes. MN? Doubtful...

Out west?
UT, AZ, AK... duh... Colorader? Hmmm... toss up. NM? Maybe, slim chance. I think Romney can appeal to hispanics pretty well. Cowboy states & ID? Yes. Oregon? I have no clue. WA? Fat chance.
CA & HI, Romney loses... even a reincarnated, fully vigorous Reagan couldn't win that one these days!

Other states, as I see it..
FL, Romney all the way, lots of retirees from the NE make this almost a shoe in.
TX, duh... most of the south? Pretty solidly red. NC? Toss up. VA? Romney.

This is of course if the election were tomorrow. With continuing to rise gas prices and a still struggling economy, it's looking more and more like Obama loses.

 

[kramerfan86]

Santorum told Puerto Ricans they need to speak english if they want to become a state, solid tactic to win votes from them.