Turkey threatens to open the gates sending refugees to West as Muslim Invasion

[Princeps]

You know this one

This is completely wrong. It suggests that it's the same generation of immigrant going in circles.

The European Muslims that have left for ISIS are largely second or third generation immigrants. This is important because:

1. They are less familiar with hardships back in their parents countries.
2. They are young and often not well-adjusted. They might even be victims of racism, which makes them feel like outsiders even after having lived in their country for their entire lives.
3. They are not necessarily from the most fluent backgrounds, and contrast their relative poverty with the prosperity of other Europeans, which makes them depressed. Joining ISIS is seen as a way to get rich, get women and find adventure.

Trump scares him

No he doesn't. Trump probably amuses him.

Trump is a useless moron.

 

[NovaKart]

I thought there was an agreement that Turkey would get 3 billion euros for increased control of the refugee situation as well as reopeninf of EU accession talks and easier access to European travel for Turkish citizens. I don't think Turkey has a chance of joining the EU and Erdogan has only made this worse but is he going back on the rest too?

 

[Kyriakos]

Turkey is not the only country that has large numbers of refugees.
I am not surprised that some people are upset that Turkey, Lebanon and Jordan cannot take all the refugees.

From BBC



http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-35462698

Lol? Are you seriously claiming that Turkey just sort of has nothing to do with those people from Syria travelling for the vast territory to get to the Aegean?



Yeah, imagine a refugee entering Germany from Sweden (not that this could ever happen ) and finding his way to Italy without any help or covert help from german authorities meaning to move him to another country. Now imagine this happening with 5000 people per day, which is how many magically make it from Syria to the Aegean

Turkey must indeed think others are utter idiots to use such an argument. Yet reality is that things are escalating always to the point of a generalised chaos in Asia minor, and not due to refugees but due to Erdo and inherent issues.

 

[Ryika]

Turkey is not the only country that has large numbers of refugees.
I am not surprised that some people are upset that Turkey, Lebanon and Jordan cannot take all the refugees.

From BBC

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-35462698

Meanwhile Europe has something around 7(?)% of the overall refugees and people are raging.

As much as I dislike Erdogan, I can somewhat understand where he's coming from. A bit of money and a promise that maybe, possibly somewhere in the future Turkey may have another shot at joining the EU does not solve the problems that having to shelter massive amounts of refugees bring to a country.

Also:

“It is hypocritical to remind Turkey of its international responsibilities,” Erdogan said, rebuffing criticism.

“There is a chance the new wave of refugees will reach 600,000 if air strikes continue,” he warned.

Source

Overall, there's certainly more going on than "Turkey is blackmailing Europe!".

 

[Kyriakos]

Turkey isn't blackmailing Europe, cause there is no power basis for that. Moreover, be sure that if major interests wish Erdogan to have a civil unrest like a few years before, he will collapse rather dramatically. Let's not act as if Erdo is not the most one dimensional of the tools in this game, being a person who could be trolled even by a binary synapse operating in a single brain cell maintained in a jar. His whole stance (and the uneducated and up to cretinous things he says) would be manifested in PB as a simple capital-lettered "Turkey Stronk!" cloud-text. But it is a false calculation, and a tower made of cards.

 

[REDY]

Europe needs to protect its borders and do not pay somebody else to do it. Especcially not to Erdogans Turkey.

 

[NovaKart]

Yeah Turkey has more of a burden now but I think there's a perception in Europe that refugees come to stay while in Turkey that's not the case and Europeans may be worried more about the long term.

 

[FriendlyFire]

Looks like the border fence is going up around Greece
Most likely Refugees will be place in camps or islands, and receive at least some basic humanitarian aid, I have a feeling that Germany is going to skim the best educated refugees and the rest are going to be deported.

The European Union’s weakest link could become an open-air refugee camp if some European leaders get their way. Amid concerns that Greece is failing to protect Europe’s external frontier, calls have grown louder to quarantine it by helping Macedonia seal its southern border — which refugees must cross to continue their journeys north — and suspend Greece from the EU’s passport-free Schengen zone.

Greece had no say in this nationality-based filter of questionable legality — and it had no choice but to deal with the thousands stranded in Greece because of it.

Meanwhile, some European leaders have already given up on Greece and are setting their sights on Macedonia and Bulgaria. Hungary and Austria are calling for reinforcement of the barbed-wire fence Macedonia built at Idomeni last fall.

http://blogs.reuters.com/great-deba...ncing-greece-from-europe-wont-solve-anything/

EU plan to send asylum seekers back to Greece

Tens of thousands of migrants could be sent back to Greece, under plans unveiled by the European Commission on Wednesday.

The EU’s leadership wants to apply a rule, known as the Dublin regulation, that permits EU countries to deport an asylum seeker to the first EU country they reached on their journey.

It is the latest plank of a strategy that many Greeks fear will turn their country into a “black box” to contain the refugee crisis.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wor...an-to-send-asylum-seekers-back-to-Greece.html

 

[Silurian]

So refugees and migrants are deported back to Greece.
Greece does not have the funds to look after them.
Unrest in Greece.
Greece cannot make repayments.
Run on Italian and Spanish banks.
Europe goes into recession.

Seems like a good idea.

 

[FriendlyFire]

Greece cannot make repayments. Fulfill bailout conditions

Fixed
At any time Germany Brussels can decide that Greece has not meet its strict bailout conditions for its Quarterly Bailout of Euromonies which would then trigger what is essentially an exit from the EuroZone.
Then Germany would likely provide "aid" to Albania, Macedonia and Bulgaria to upgrade border fences while providing humanitarian aid to Greece.

Unfortunately Germany miscalculated and mishandled the refugee crisis and is scrambling to fix up some kind of solution.
It is already unable to cope with refugees and the sexual assault / crime has turned the public against accepting more

Maybe some other "Muslim" nations could step up and accept a few million

 

[daft]

Turkey will do what they want, so be it...

 

[innonimatu]

Greece cannot make repayments.
Run on Italian and Spanish banks.
Europe goes into recession.

Some politicias might wish that just such an apparent chain of events happens now.

The banks are bankrupt, and a bank run is already under way. The latest fun is about Germany's own banks being way below the minimum capital ratios demanded by the EU's own (nebulous) guidelines for "stress tests". And this will only get worse for those banks: negative interest rates forced them to choose between risky investments or steadily losing money. And recent risky investments (namely, loans to energy companies) are sinking in market value. So are the bonds of those banks...

It was a problem created by all the years of crazy policies by the ECB. First the debt bubble cause by low interest rates, then the forced bank bailouts insted of writing off debt and letting them go bankrupt. And now the negative interest rates policy. This is completely independent of the situation in Greece. The ECB's moves have always been dictated from Frankfurt and, to a lesser degree, Paris. But it would be very convenient for the eurocrats to have someone else to blame for their own failures.

 

[FriendlyFire]

It was a problem created by all the years of crazy policies by the ECB. First the debt bubble cause by low interest rates, then the forced bank bailouts insted of writing off debt and letting them go bankrupt. And now the negative interest rates policy. This is completely independent of the situation in Greece. The ECB's moves have always been dictated from Frankfurt and, to a lesser degree, Paris. But it would be very convenient for the eurocrats to have someone else to blame for their own failures.

ECB insolvency isnt a problem, the problem will be inflation or run away inflation, which will spell collapse of the Euro
Not that German is blameless but the US and wall street should hold much of blame. How nice to rate junk as AAAA and sell it to Germany

If a central bank purchases assets that then decline in value, it could end up having negative capital. When a commercial bank has negative capital, it is termed insolvent and either re-capitalised or shut down. The “insolvent” terminology is sometimes applied to a central bank in this situation but, as I discuss below, central banks are unique organizations and this phrase isn’t particularly appropriate.

Since central bank money costs next to nothing to create, the “Liabilities” on its balance sheet are essentially notional. Indeed, a central bank’s asset holdings could fall below the value of the money it has issued – the balance sheet could show it to be “insolvent” – without impacting on the value of the currency in circulation. A fiat currency’s value, its real purchasing power, is determined by how much money has been supplied and the various factors influencing money demand, not by the stock of central bank assets.

not suggesting that bond purchase programs have no cost. To the extent that they involve increasing the money supply, they can contribute to inflation so there is an implicit cost for all citizens

Eurosystem needs to be protected from balance sheet insolvency has featured heavily in discussions of policy options. Indeed, it is well known that senior ECB officials are extremely concerned with protecting their balance sheet and have employed their “risk control framework” to protect themselves from losses at many of the key moments in the euro crisis.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/karlwhe...sking-insolvency-does-it-matter/#1f20c13e30e2

 

[innonimatu]

It's not about the ECB. It is about the situation of the commercial banks. The ECB can, of course, provide unlimited liquidity to the banks and pretent that all those worthless bonds carry the original face value. But the EU officialdom would have to make a political U turn to order that. And admit that the ECB is a political tool.

As things stand now the depositor insurance scheme in the EU is a joke - totally worthless ir any medium sized bank fails.

 

[Princeps]

the problem will be inflation or run away inflation, which will spell collapse of the Euro

Except it never happens.

The ECB has plenty of methods to control inflation should it start rising.

They could expand reserve requirements, sell bonds, whatever.

 

[FriendlyFire]

It's not about the ECB. It is about the situation of the commercial banks. The ECB can, of course, provide unlimited liquidity to the banks and pretent that all those worthless bonds carry the original face value. But the EU officialdom would have to make a political U turn to order that. And admit that the ECB is a political tool.

As things stand now the depositor insurance scheme in the EU is a joke - totally worthless ir any medium sized bank fails.

Having some way to deal with bad debt is pretty much a must and ECB should do it soon. But you know what Germany is like with PAY DEBT ! (They all Nazi over paying debts )
I read there the amount of world debt is serviceable anyways and will never be paid back.

Maybe ECB could Nationalize the insolvent private banks rather then keep playing the game of recapitalization ? And run the Banks with ruthless Germany Efficiency !

 

[Kyriakos]

Except it never happens.

The ECB has plenty of methods to control inflation should it start rising.

They could expand reserve requirements, sell bonds, whatever.

Well, yes, of course. It is just the simple man's (or willing fool's) imaginary bogeyman, inflation running wild. The ECB would have easily avoided destroying the union as it did, by increasing circulation of euros in a very small degree, and not just back in 2008... It could do so now as well, and you can be sure it won't, cause it is another political tool to maintain the lunatic idiocy this union has become under german leadership.

 

[EnglishEdward]

The thing about the British is I think for the moment as a culture, they are dead in the water. They even wanted a ban on Trump and debated the damn thing at Parliment? House of Commons? British Lord Senate?...I don't know someone fill me in on the details of British politics here

Yes, it is really all quite embarrassing.


Our parliament has delusions of grandeur and debates topics as if Britain was the
pre-eminent world power. I, English, favoured Scots independence as the only cure.

The English left have totally lost their minds.

Even when a genuine issue emerges, they all go off half cocked.

Donald Trump has been a nuisance in that he has had his companies try eminent
domain to dispossess Scottish crofters to expand his golf courses and obstruct
offshore wind farms because he does not think his golfers would like the view.
Britain is both short of land to grow food in and really needs wind power particularly
now since the last coal mine has been closed down, so that was really annoying.

The purported grounds for banning him were that he proposed to put a halt on Muslim
immigration to the USA which would be discriminatory on religious grounds.

As 9/11 occurred because USA let in 15 Saudis and 1 Sudanese, Donald has a point.
So the UK parliament should have kept out of that debate.

It would have been much better to wait until he came out with his proposal to bring back
waterboarding torture and his "worse", and then advise him (in the unlikely event of him
suggesting visiting England while a candidate) that his presence would inevitably result
in protests and that the UK public would look rather unkindly on UK police if they had
to shoot protesters to protect him.

 

[Silurian]

Fixed

Not sure why you wanted to change

Greece cannot make repayments. to Fulfill bailout conditions

But you failed to explain how it would help if Greece cannot "Fulfill bailout conditions".