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What is the US up to with regard to Iran?

Discussion in 'Off-Topic' started by AmazonQueen, May 16, 2019.

  1. Birdjaguar

    Birdjaguar Entangled Retired Moderator Supporter

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    Now that Prince Jared has unveiled his plan to solve the easy parts of immigration, which appears to be not very well liked by congress, will Mr. Deal Maker be able to negotiate it through congress? Wanna bet? He says he is saving the hard parts (DACA et al for his secret plan to be revealed after the 2020 election. Meanwhile more concentration camps for asylum seekers.
     
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  2. Owen Glyndwr

    Owen Glyndwr La Femme Moderne

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    Ah. Good to hear he's got a super secret, ultimate resolution to this whole "Immigration Problem"
     
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  3. El_Machinae

    El_Machinae Colour vision since 2018 Retired Moderator

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    Just be careful in how you remember things. There was no real treaty with Iran, because the senate didn't ratify the deal. The President is authorized to negotiate, but the President's final agreement isn't THE final agreement. It's like how your house realtor can discuss things, but cannot make the final deal
     
  4. Estebonrober

    Estebonrober Warlord

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    Trump is particularly horrible about this but the US as a whole has real issues when it comes to making deals, its only saving grace is that if you get a treaty passed with us it is the law of our land by the constitution itself so is therefore about as good as deals get when it comes to treaties.

    Trump is terrible deal maker though, I'm pretty sure what his taxes show is he has bled cash for 40 years because he is so bad at deals. I'm reminded of the interview with "The Apprentice" producers talking about how sad his executive offices were in the 00s. Joking about how they were ten to twenty years out of date and such.
     
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  5. AmazonQueen

    AmazonQueen Virago

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    I hope you're right. If he wanted a quick war for electoral purposes Venezuala (unpopular government with own people and with US allies) would make more sense than Iran.
     
  6. red_elk

    red_elk Warlord

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    Don is up to nothing.
    Attacking Iran would be too insane at this moment. US doesn't know what to do with Iraq, Syria and Afghanistan.
     
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  7. Farm Boy

    Farm Boy The trees are actually quite lovely.

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    Me too. At least about the first part.
     
  8. inthesomeday

    inthesomeday Immortan

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    Politically it doesn’t seem like all out war with Iran is very plausible, at least nowhere near the extent of Iraq. There is essentially one man in the whole US arguing for this, two whenever Netanyahu pops by for a campaign tour.

    That said it seems Bolton is one of Trump’s most favored advisors, and if he’s anywhere near as smart as Rove it’s quite possible he could leverage Trump’s election paranoia into some kind of direct military action.

    Don’t be too worried about Iran, though. They are in a better position in almost every way than Iraq was in 03. Diplomatically, I think they could rely on, at the very least, not having to fend off Russians, and at most direct Russian material support. Economically, the Iranian manufacturing and refining base is significantly more developed than Iraq’s was, especially given that they have over a decade more and no desert storm to recover from— plus, there are like 4 times more people in Iran. Politically, while the government does face some share of internal opposition it’s nothing even close to what Saddam was handling; the latter was trying to simultaneously fight Islamist, communist, and separatist groups basically anywhere outside of Baghdad by 03. And plenty in Baghdad too. Militarily, Iran not only has a significant material advantage but also the expertise and experience of the Iraq war itself, as well as Syria and Afghanistan. In 03 the Iraqis put their SAMs on trucks, which they learned from the Serbs. Today, the Iranians will have all manner of new tactical knowledge to build on from a number of American invasions of the past two decades.

    The best part is, everybody already knows all this. This is why Bolton is so thoroughly alienated in his hawkishness. Worst case scenario imo, Bolton gets his way and Trump sails the Gulf. Oil prices increase exponentially as Qatar, Kuwait, Iraq tankers stop flowing— fear of the Iranians would very reasonably cause this to happen. People see the writing on the wall, Pompeo or Mattis or SOMEBODY convinces Trump they’ve already won and we withdraw and pat ourselves on the back for victory. Status quo proceeds without any real blood drawn.
     
  9. r16

    r16 not deity

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    american designs are stuck . They can't fight us to create a Kurdish Nation State to fight us and Iran is kinda big . They are hoping something will happen and the world will agree and smash Iran for America and stuff . While Trump discovers he is not bold enough ; just like he would fail to start a nuclear war with Russia in the 1980s , despite his declarations to the contrary , when he loves the pomp and power of winning elections .
     
  10. Hrothbern

    Hrothbern Warlord

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    Iran is a very big country, with a big population, with many people prepared to fight to their death when the US would really go into local ground troops action.

    The game Trump discovered is that he can play, he can game the world, as if playing a vid game from his lazy chair with golf breaks to think up new actions.
    He only needs to deal threats and blows to economies.
    He is still the school bully.
     
  11. Dekker

    Dekker Chieftain

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    Nah I still say war. The media fawning over his 'reluctance' is part of the typical build up to protect our image of righteousness, some Iran 'proxy' will trigger a response that will escalate and we will usher in another cycle of our endless war. It never changes.
     
  12. Lexicus

    Lexicus Warlord

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    On the one hand this all makes sense, on the other, I think the American people are pretty easily induced to support war and this administration is even more boundlessly mendacious than the Bush administration was...I don't like the combination...
     
  13. AmazonQueen

    AmazonQueen Virago

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    Theres also the possibility of an incident leading to a situation where neither side is prepared to back down and lose face.
    Both Iran and the US have hotheads who would welcome war even if their governments don't want it.
     
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  14. Mouthwash

    Mouthwash Escaped Lunatic

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    Is Bolton simply a bad cop, here? My understanding is that his position is not so much about deciding foreign policy and more about being a public advocate for it. His Iraq credentials make him better, not worse, for the role.

    You seem to be under the impression that the entire rest of the world could come under the occupation of hostile foreign powers without that affecting Americans.
     
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  15. innonimatu

    innonimatu Warlord

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    Venezuela would be a new Vietnam.
     
  16. AmazonQueen

    AmazonQueen Virago

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    Personally I'd prefer neither got invaded but I suspect invading Iran would have worse and more widespread consequences.
     
  17. innonimatu

    innonimatu Warlord

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    I think it would outright fail, which is why I don't compare it with Vietnam. Even and air war would fail. I recall how expensive the attack on Serbia turned out to be, and Serbia was less prepared, and more isolated, than Iran is. Iran won't fold from air attacks alone, and even if military contracts in the US are salivating at the prospect of sustaining a long bombing campaign against it, it won't be a turkey shoot: China and Russia will give Iran anti-air weapons, regime change in Iran and a puppet government there is a line they will never, ever allow the US to cross. And so the war cost will escalate far beyond what the US government can justify.

    On the other hand it would be the end of the Empire: the US cannot recover from such a visible military defeat, its willingness to wage new wars and its influence worldwide would crumble suddenly, possibly with internal instability following. And that would be good for the rest of the world, which has been suffering from US-waged wars.

    On the other hand, some empires just won't go down easily. Faced with this prospect, it might choose to go down with a boom. Go nuclear. That and that alone would give it a "victory over Iran", but i very much fear that would give us all world war three within less than a decade.
     
    Last edited: May 17, 2019
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  18. Hrothbern

    Hrothbern Warlord

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    Iran is not like Syria or Iraq, not big plains. It is very mountainous, much more like Afghanistan. And how well did some empires fare with meddling in Afghanistan ?

    Ground troops, tanks in such a mountainous area ???
    I think not.

    Airstrikes can indeed happen, but probably no rose garden either (the modern anti-air weapons, the captured pilots, the newsmedia).

    A naval blockade ?
    Well... just imagine ships being blocked by the US navy with flags of China, Japan, Greece (many ships have Greek flags), EU, etc.
    And will the usual suspects like the UK and France help to keep up appearances that the US is not "alone" ?
    I think not.

    Bombing all Iranian ports into oblivion after an ultimatum to third country ships to leave those ports ?
    And once announced... and some countries decide to call and ignore that... and some countries decide to raise and park some ships in Iranian ports... what then ?
    Bomb those ships to the sea bottom ?

    Here a physical map of that area:

    Schermopname (2944).png
     
    Last edited: May 18, 2019
  19. FriendlyFire

    FriendlyFire Codex WMDicanious

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    Getting re-elected

     
  20. Berzerker

    Berzerker Warlord

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    I remember hearing Republicans claiming Obama wouldn't leave office too... Now Democrats are making the same accusations of Trump, he'll invade Iran and he wont leave office. Well, if he invades Iran I'll stop defending his foreign policy.
     
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