Politically it doesn’t seem like all out war with Iran is very plausible, at least nowhere near the extent of Iraq. There is essentially one man in the whole US arguing for this, two whenever Netanyahu pops by for a campaign tour.
That said it seems Bolton is one of Trump’s most favored advisors, and if he’s anywhere near as smart as Rove it’s quite possible he could leverage Trump’s election paranoia into some kind of direct military action.
Don’t be too worried about Iran, though. They are in a better position in almost every way than Iraq was in 03. Diplomatically, I think they could rely on, at the very least, not having to fend off Russians, and at most direct Russian material support. Economically, the Iranian manufacturing and refining base is significantly more developed than Iraq’s was, especially given that they have over a decade more and no desert storm to recover from— plus, there are like 4 times more people in Iran. Politically, while the government does face some share of internal opposition it’s nothing even close to what Saddam was handling; the latter was trying to simultaneously fight Islamist, communist, and separatist groups basically anywhere outside of Baghdad by 03. And plenty in Baghdad too. Militarily, Iran not only has a significant material advantage but also the expertise and experience of the Iraq war itself, as well as Syria and Afghanistan. In 03 the Iraqis put their SAMs on trucks, which they learned from the Serbs. Today, the Iranians will have all manner of new tactical knowledge to build on from a number of American invasions of the past two decades.
The best part is, everybody already knows all this. This is why Bolton is so thoroughly alienated in his hawkishness. Worst case scenario imo, Bolton gets his way and Trump sails the Gulf. Oil prices increase exponentially as Qatar, Kuwait, Iraq tankers stop flowing— fear of the Iranians would very reasonably cause this to happen. People see the writing on the wall, Pompeo or Mattis or SOMEBODY convinces Trump they’ve already won and we withdraw and pat ourselves on the back for victory. Status quo proceeds without any real blood drawn.
