What new countries will we see in the next 20 years

[Traitorfish]

Iran-will cease to exist after Israel nukes them during a nuclear exchange.
Israel-will cease to exist after Israel nukes them during a nuclear exchange.

Likud sure are sore winners, huh.

 

[r16]

with tonight's declarations that lsraeli forces are put on alert to attack lran this year (to stop Bidon the barrel returning to the nuke deal) it surely might be read as a prophecy or something about a black flag

 

[Joij21]

Likud sure are sore winners, huh.

Edited, but I suppose from a certain view...........

 

[Joij21]

Aren't you like walking on thin ice or something ?

I think it's pretty based.

 

[r16]

sorry , an expression ı fail to understand , though ı was like always sad for the guy who started some debate on some forum how much the Empire States Building in New York would take to fall down . After the 1945 incident when a B-25 crashed into it . Maybe some airliner ? He must have real sadness whether he had some blood on his hands ... (No , he didn't . Saudis had told their people they needed far more heat after the failure ... in 1993 or so)

 

[Arwon]

Scotland seems to be a given. Apart from that, for the other options, independence seems to be a bargaining chip in domestic politics more than an actual goal (Flanders), diplomatically complicated enough that all the major powers would prefer to just kick the can down the road (New Russia ), or something I just plain don't know anything about (Ambazonia? Is that a thing?)

Catalonia is a solid "maybe", and if it goes I wouldn't be surprised to see the Basque Country follow, but I think it's bound up far too tightly with exactly how the European project develops.

There's at least three in the Pacific fairly likely in that there's votes happening and they're not tied up with great power rivalry rubbish or opposed by a country too large to mess with.

Bougainville already voted overwhelmingly yes in a non binding referendum, the thinking is the process will take years as PNG negotiate but I don't think anyone is in any serious doubt about the separation.

New Caledonia recently narrowly voted down independence from France, 47-53, which was up from 43-57 two years earlier. There's a third referendum due by next year, under the terms of the Noumea Accord agreed in the 1990s.

Chuuk is the largest constituent state of Micronesia and holding a referendum in 2022, which would see it becoming a fourth independent country in that region in free association with the US (like Marshall Islands, Palau and Micronesia itself)

 

[Joij21]

sorry , an expression ı fail to understand

The quality of having an opinion without regard for what other people think, often a controversial opinion but not always. Upon expressing such an opinion it is customary for others to acknowledge the person as being based.

 

[innonimatu]

Catalonia is a solid "maybe", and if it goes I wouldn't be surprised to see the Basque Country follow, but I think it's bound up far too tightly with exactly how the European project develops.

Catalonia is a no, because of Barcelona. They never really had a chance when they tried last time because they were so split that forcing the issue wouldn't work. And whichever way the EU goes it won't help them. If the EU breaks apart people will withdraw to the relative safety of what remains, their countries, only if those also immediately fail government will they break further apart. If the EU carries on the spanish government has a seat on the table and Catalonia's doesn't therefore the EU will do nothing to help their independence and everything to hinder their independence.
Catalonia can only get a large enough fraction of its people to back independence if - only apparently paradoxically - it can drag Valencia and preferably Aragon and Murcia with it. Catalonia itself is too small to support its capital city, but with what was once the territory of Aragon it can make a credible country, credible enough that a majority of the population can be brought to support breaking away and the central government will be powerless to retaliate. Catalonia alone cannot: Barcelona is too big to love off a hinterland comprised solely of Catalonia, blocked from a hostile Spain. And enough of its population will look at their personal interests and keep opposing independence.

But for this maximalist strategy of breaking away the entire east of the peninsula to get going, first the delusion of independence for Catalonia alone being so near has to be dropped. And a new and long effort be made to push for this greater territory splitting away. It's not going to happen before the credibility of the current pro-independence politicians is wrecked because they plan independence for Catalonia alone. The more successful the central government (and these politician's own incompetence) is at achieving their collapse, the sooner Spain can move to really split. And they have been busy wrecking their credibility, so... perhaps in a few decades.

The only option for Catalonia to break loose quickly is the central government in Madrid getting so distracted of the periphery and the fight for power so desperate at the centre that it actually offers a loose federation and then a sitting government chooses to eject Catalonia to get rid of unwanted voting blocks there. Don't see that as likely. Here too there's a paradox working: the electoral success of the pro-independence politicians in Catalonia basically nullifies their importance for the national power calculation: they can't be embraced in alliances by the other parties, at least not if the price they demand is independence! Hence whomever sits in power in Madrid has little incentive to get rid of them in order to change some electoral balance: the rival opposition can't ally with them either.

This is a problem also for NI and Scotland in the UK... The success of the SNP kind of nullifies the influence of the voting block of the scots for parliamentary calculations between the two big parties.

 

[Thorgalaeg]

Catalonia is a no, because of Barcelona. They never really had a chance when they tried last time because they were so split that forcing the issue wouldn't work. And whichever way the EU goes it won't help them. If the EU breaks apart people will withdraw to the relative safety of what remains, their countries, only if those also immediately fail government will they break further apart. If the EU carries on the spanish government has a seat on the table and Catalonia's doesn't therefore the EU will do nothing to help their independence and everything to hinder their independence.
Catalonia can only get a large enough fraction of its people to back independence if - only apparently paradoxically - it can drag Valencia and preferably Aragon and Murcia with it. Catalonia itself is too small to support its capital city, but with what was once the territory of Aragon it can make a credible country, credible enough that a majority of the population can be brought to support breaking away and the central government will be powerless to retaliate. Catalonia alone cannot: Barcelona is too big to love off a hinterland comprised solely of Catalonia, blocked from a hostile Spain. And enough of its population will look at their personal interests and keep opposing independence.

But for this maximalist strategy of breaking away the entire east of the peninsula to get going, first the delusion of independence for Catalonia alone being so near has to be dropped. And a new and long effort be made to push for this greater territory splitting away. It's not going to happen before the credibility of the current pro-independence politicians is wrecked because they plan independence for Catalonia alone. The more successful the central government (and these politician's own incompetence) is at achieving their collapse, the sooner Spain can move to really split. And they have been busy wrecking their credibility, so... perhaps in a few decades.

The only option for Catalonia to break loose quickly is the central government in Madrid getting so distracted of the periphery and the fight for power so desperate at the centre that it actually offers a loose federation and then a sitting government chooses to eject Catalonia to get rid of unwanted voting blocks there. Don't see that as likely. Here too there's a paradox working: the electoral success of the pro-independence politicians in Catalonia basically nullifies their importance for the national power calculation: they can't be embraced in alliances by the other parties, at least not if the price they demand is independence! Hence whomever sits in power in Madrid has little incentive to get rid of them in order to change some electoral balance: the rival opposition can't ally with them either.

This is a problem also for NI and Scotland in the UK... The success of the SNP kind of nullifies the influence of the voting block of the scots for parliamentary calculations between the two big parties.

Aragon+Valencia+Cataluña +Murcia+Baleares (you forgot Baleares), as a new country is an absolutely ridiculous idea only a catalan independentist could dream of. Well, some in fact dream on it, but don't call it Aragon 2.0 or whatever but "paisos catalans" showing a remarkable imperialist conception, kinda manifest destiny of the true catalan people or something like that. All pretty delusional, funny and sad at the same time.

 

[Ferocitus]

More like become a resource colony of Red China.

Sounds fair to me. There are quite a few Chinese development and other initiatives in Papua New Guinea, and those might give additional confidence to Irian Jaya independence movements.

Australia isn't making much in the way of counter-proposals to Chinese development assistance in PNG.

Papua New Guinea politician criticises Australia's reaction to Chinese fisheries park
A Papua New Guinean governor has criticised Australia's response to a plan to establish a Chinese fisheries park on PNG's border, saying Australia wants the "status quo" of poverty in the region to remain.

"As usual, they came with no alternative plans to counter and deter any foreign direct investment, especially to alleviate poverty and improve social services," he wrote.
...
The Governor has now hit out at the Australian Government on Facebook, saying Australia had no counter-offer to the Chinese plan and that he "was not satisfied with their intentions for my people to remain the same" when many are living in poverty.
...
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-01...criticises-australia-chinese-fishery/13089012

If Westerners want to prevent some countries being pulled into China's sphere of influence, they better come bearing something more substantial than 1st year Philosophy Ethics essays.

 

[Lohrenswald]

why isn't Taiwan in the list and yet Tibet is? I'll say Taiwan is more likely to be recognized as fully independent nation again than Tibet.

What do you mean again

 

[NovaKart]

There's at least three in the Pacific fairly likely in that there's votes happening and they're not tied up with great power rivalry rubbish or opposed by a country too large to mess with.

Bougainville already voted overwhelmingly yes in a non binding referendum, the thinking is the process will take years as PNG negotiate but I don't think anyone is in any serious doubt about the separation.

New Caledonia recently narrowly voted down independence from France, 47-53, which was up from 43-57 two years earlier. There's a third referendum due by next year, under the terms of the Noumea Accord agreed in the 1990s.

Chuuk is the largest constituent state of Micronesia and holding a referendum in 2022, which would see it becoming a fourth independent country in that region in free association with the US (like Marshall Islands, Palau and Micronesia itself)

How would these places survive economically? That’s one of the problems with Kurdistan’s independence. They can’t afford to pay public servants and this problem bleeds into the private sector too with people going months without salaries.

 

[Josu]

Basque Country

I would love it, but currently we, as country, are not pushing for it.

 

[Lohrenswald]

Basque Country

I would love it, but currently we, as country, are not pushing for it.

Would you like to have Navarra/e in it?

 

[Josu]

Would you like to have Navarra/e in it?

I see the Basque Country as the land of the basque languaje, obvously they are in.

What I would like navarrese people having the chance of choosing that, don't think it would happen, neither the chance, neither the choose

 

[EnglishEdward]

I cannot see why non Catalan, but Spanish, speaking areas adjacent to Catalonia
would want to break away from Spain and become part of a Catalan state.

And similarly re a Basque state.

 

[Lohrenswald]

I cannot see why non Catalan, but Spanish, speaking areas adjacent to Catalonia
would want to break away from Spain and become part of a Catalan state.

And similarly re a Basque state.

usually I'd agree, but Spain is a country uniquely hated by its own inhabitants

 

[Traitorfish]

usually I'd agree, but Spain is a country uniquely hated by its own inhabitants

All of the large European nation-states are artificial to some degree or another, but Spain is three-kids-in-a-trenchcoat levels of fake.

 

[innonimatu]

I cannot see why non Catalan, but Spanish, speaking areas adjacent to Catalonia
would want to break away from Spain and become part of a Catalan state.

The Baleares would leave if Catalonia left, that's why I didn't even mention them. Murcia isn't really relevant to the viability of the east breaking away from Spain. People in Aragon would be though to convince, whats in it for them between being ruled from Madrid or from Barcelona, both far from their local concerns? Valencia not so much. But the Catalonia first mindset of the current catalan independent efforts basically precludes any such cooperation to dismantle Spain. Madrid has nothing to fear for the time being.

The way to do it would be to attack the central government and the monarchy and defend more localized rule and historical precedent. It was foreign invaders after all that suppressed the separate crowns, the Bourbons whose spawn still reside in a palace in Madrid. Focus on that and not on language or other very specific cultural features. Though catalan and related dialects does reach into Valencia and to some degree other regions, it's not the best base to build a separatist movement upon.

The spanish state does lack the cultural glue to keep it together more than others in Europe. More than even the more recent italian or german states imo. It depends on its continued existence on the idea that only the centre can support fiscal transfers that benefit some of the poorer regions, and thus retains the support of those regions. This means that basically Madrid has a political incentive to keep the regional disparities instead of actually reducing them. Madrid is basically a giant vampire squid sitting on the centre of the peninsula, having grown out of nothing but a capital city bureaucracy. Grabbing a big share of the wealth and moving a little around. But only people in the wealthier regions are dissatisfied with that of course. Get Andalizia and Galiza to also cease supporting Madrid and the whole thing crumbles: a central government won't have the soldiers to keep Spain together even if they wanted to use force. For this Catalonia and the Basque Country would have to adopt a policy that is the opposite of what they have been doing, help other regions prosper instead of focusing only on their own.

Aragon+Valencia+Cataluña +Murcia+Baleares (you forgot Baleares), as a new country is an absolutely ridiculous idea only a catalan independentist could dream of. Well, some in fact dream on it, but don't call it Aragon 2.0 or whatever but "paisos catalans" showing a remarkable imperialist conception, kinda manifest destiny of the true catalan people or something like that. All pretty delusional, funny and sad at the same time.

I don't think the catalan independentists dream of that, which is why I believe they keep failing and will keep failing. So don't worry, Spain breaking away is unlikely in the near future.

 

[Thorgalaeg]

The Baleares would leave if Catalonia left, that's why I didn't even mention them. Murcia isn't really relevant to the viability of the east breaking away from Spain. People in Aragon would be though to convince, whats in it for them between being ruled from Madrid or from Barcelona, both far from their local concerns? Valencia not so much. But the Catalonia first mindset of the current catalan independent efforts basically precludes any such cooperation to dismantle Spain. Madrid has nothing to fear for the time being.

The way to do it would be to attack the central government and the monarchy and defend more localized rule and historical precedent. It was foreign invaders after all that suppressed the separate crowns, the Bourbons whose spawn still reside in a palace in Madrid. Focus on that and not on language or other very specific cultural features. Though catalan and related dialects does reach into Valencia and to some degree other regions, it's not the best base to build a separatist movement upon.

The spanish state does lack the cultural glue to keep it together more than others in Europe. More than even the more recent italian or german states imo. It depends on its continued existence on the idea that only the centre can support fiscal transfers that benefit some of the poorer regions, and thus retains the support of those regions. This means that basically Madrid has a political incentive to keep the regional disparities instead of actually reducing them. Madrid is basically a giant vampire squid sitting on the centre of the peninsula, having grown out of nothing but a capital city bureaucracy. Grabbing a big share of the wealth and moving a little around. But only people in the wealthier regions are dissatisfied with that of course. Get Andalizia and Galiza to also cease supporting Madrid and the whole thing crumbles: a central government won't have the soldiers to keep Spain together even if they wanted to use force. For this Catalonia and the Basque Country would have to adopt a policy that is the opposite of what they have been doing, help other regions prosper instead of focusing only on their own.



I don't think the catalan independentists dream of that, which is why I believe they keep failing and will keep failing. So don't worry, Spain breaking away is unlikely in the near future.

Uf, you are even more delusional than the independentists.