Have to play it by ear when the shooting starts; if the Red Air Force is contesting the airspace I'll keep cranking out fighters but if not I'll probably switch some factories from fighters to CAS. I do start building naval fighters and bombers when I eventually start building carriers, but I'm not sure whether that's going to work this time given the changes to ships in MtG.
I think it would be impossible to build more synthetic refineries than I'm already building. All civilian factories are building them and will be probably until the invasion starts, less the ones I'll need to beef up the radar and airbases in eastern Poland (I didn't bother with Molotov-Ribbentrop so I occupy all of Poland).
You can see the number of enemy airframes in the diplomacy window. It is an estimate, but the estimate improves based on your decryption.
CAS is okay but the paucity of airfields in the western USSR makes TACs a decent option, too.
NAVs from shore combined with U-boats can pretty much wreck the British economy at relatively low cost. All those convoys make for juicy pickings. The Bay of Biscay is a particularly easy target, IIRC. NAVs should be massed, while U-boats can be dispersed effectively (although wolfpack tactics may work better in MtG than they did before, not sure).
Situation in the northern sector of the eastern front at the moment of my declaration of war against the USSR. My intention is to have Guderian's five Panzer divisions sweep northeast along the Daugava river. When I reach Riga the front will be shortened quite a bit and some number of Soviet divisions annihilated.
That's a nasty kessel they've created for themselves, with a dozen (!) tank divisions inside. RIP.
Any particular reason you've sprinkled
Gebirgsjäger throughout the swamps of Belorussia?
Then I can begin the real offensive in the southern sector of the front, moving to occupy as much of the resource-rich Ukraine as possible. I'm holding 4 panzer divisions under Rommel and 5 motorized divisions under Hausser in reserve.
The penetration attack could use some adjustment. Tactically, it's best to lead with your armor, not your motorized infantry, because of its hardness and breakthrough. MOTs should be used for exploiting breakthroughs (with no enemy reserves) or walling off the flanks behind the advancing armor (with enemy reserves counterattacking). I also recommend having your armor attack from more than one province if at all possible to get flanking bonuses and rapidly increase combat width at the beginning of the battle. This particular axis of attack doesn't do you many favors, and it's a little hard to tell where the province boundaries lie, but something like this might be better for you:
Stack up your armor in the two circle-marked provinces and pick a
single enemy province as the
Schwerpunkt. If the province boundaries don't work out, try to find a place where you can attack from two provinces (or more!) against a single one. The crucial thing is to be able to achieve breakthrough as rapidly as possible by amassing as many advantages as you can: air superiority, bombing, max-breakthrough divisions with optimal width, and flanking bonuses. Break through in a few hours, and the AI won't be able to respond effectively. Once you have that, you can outrace the AI along the Dvina and kessel those sixty-odd divisions in Lithuania. Hold the line along the Dvina to the north with MOTs until leg infantry show up, while having your armor and other MOTs wrap around into the pocket to gobble up as much territory and maneuver space as they can.
Alternatively, drive to Leningrad, because lololol hoi4 ai