Why China risks war

[Snorrius]

This is where you lose me.

China exports to US much more then imports from it. US have enormous trade deficit with China, and China holds enormous amount of debt. US now in similar (but much worse position) as Britain Empire back then.

 

[xchen08]

China exports to US much more then imports from it. US have enormous trade deficit with China, and China holds enormous amount of debt. US now in similar (but much worse position) as Britain Empire back then.

Let's get something straight here. Great Britain at the time was a quasi-mercantilist state running on a Gold Standard, and it was that that directly caused all the problems of the China trade. Your understanding of economics and international trade does not appear to have advanced from that time either.

Next, your scenario as a whole smacks just a little too much of someone playing Civ, or one of Paradox's games. HOI III perhaps. You have the bribing nations to fight each other, magically transferring troops and military equipment, nations ignoring public opinion (I guess Japan just built Mount Rushmore and switched to Police State), nukes being just a minor annoyance, overseas invasions incredibly easy, etc, etc. You sound a little like that crazy Russian nut who thinks the U.S. will break up into 4 different nations "any day now." I suggest you reconsider some of your beliefs in light of advances in the social sciences made in the last 2 centuries.

 

[Evie]

Frankly, this is just silly.

The Opium Wars were Colonial Wars - a war between a nation that could project power, and a nation that couldn't. Great Britain could hurt China, but China couldn't get back and hurt GB, because they lacked the oceanic warships.

China today has nuclear missiles. You don't fight colonial wars against somebody who can turn your cities into so much radioactive rubble. When the enemy has that much power to hurt you, you're looking at Total War.

And you don't fight total wars for the sake of a negative trade balance.

 

[luiz]

Crazy scenario on many different levels. Has it ever occurred to you that the US trade deficit with China might decrease naturally as a result of a falling dollar and a rising yuan? And as Winner pointed out, you have a very 16th Century view of the economy (not surprising). A nation can very well live and prosper with trade deficits, even if the level of imbalance we saw in the last years is not healthy.

 

[vesley1987]

This is plain crazy.
US has to fight a new opium war against China just because the trade deficits?
Come on, even if the trade deficits are so large that US just can't bear any more,
there're still some thing named tariff.
And why on earth would Japan be stupid enough to wage a war against a nuclear power just to make US happy?

 

[Kozmos]

We all hear these days about China, the Dragon, the Would-be First economy in the World. Due to enoromous debt the mighty USA is bowing to China, and seems like future is full of joy and bliss for this ancient countries. The country is enjoying the period of "small prosperity" to its fullest. A lot of political and economic crystal-gazers predict China to rule the world in 2050. Seems like nothing darken this vision.

Does it?

This sounded like an intro to a really bad and slanted documentary

But seriously now...man that is some pure crazy ass smilie faces. It is like crazy cocaine. If people wanted to get crazy by snorting something it would be your grounded up OP.

 

[laffy]

This trade thalassocratia has mighty forces

Who you callin' a thalassocracy, boy? The US isn't one.

 

[civ_king]

China couldn't slaughter the British and repopulate it with Chinese people back then

 

[Lillefix]

What about India. Can anyone imagine a plausible reason for China and India to go at each other's throuths sometime the next 50 years?

 

[tycoonist]

What about India. Can anyone imagine a plausible reason for China and India to go at each other's throuths sometime the next 50 years?

"we make better takeaways"
"no, we make better takeaways"
"i'm telling you, we make better takeaways"
"you couldn't be more wrong, for we make better takeaways"
.....????????
"right thats it, this means war!"

 

[PiMan]

What about India. Can anyone imagine a plausible reason for China and India to go at each other's throuths sometime the next 50 years?

Disputed territory. There are large areas claimed by both countries as their own territory.

 

[vesley1987]

What about India. Can anyone imagine a plausible reason for China and India to go at each other's throuths sometime the next 50 years?

That's a much more practical possibility, China and India have large disputed territory and both are haunted by rising nationalism. But the harsh natural evironment around the sino-India boundary and the fact that both have a nuclear arsenal may limit any possible confilict to border skirmish.

 

[bombshoo]

You also realize the Manchus are a very small minority in China now right? The language is close to being extinct and even most ethnic Manchus are assimilated into the Han culture.

 

[storical]

This is plain crazy.
US has to fight a new opium war against China just because the trade deficits?
Come on, even if the trade deficits are so large that US just can't bear any more,
there're still some thing named tariff.
And why on earth would Japan be stupid enough to wage a war against a nuclear power just to make US happy?

The US is not going to fight China, over anything, well I suppose if they nuked Washington it would be on, but you know what I mean. Japan would only defend itself.
I know its not going to happen, but if it did happen, what would happen? How many think all out nuclear war? I don't, too much at stake. It would be one helluva conventional war. We certainly have a technology advantage, and we would certainly have to reinstate the draft, with all the manpower China has. We are going to need some allies. Can you even imagine?

I think we would need our big tough pal Great Britain, and they better send for some Italians, French, Brunswickers and God knows what else!

 

[red_elk]

Japan would have nothing to gain from such a war.
They don't like the U.S. enough.
They don't have enough forces to start land war in Asia.

 

[JerichoHill]

Hilarious
Japan doesn't have much of a military. They're banned from aggressive action.

And further, Snorrius really doesnt get economics. If China gets wealthy, that act likely helps reduce its trade imbalances with the rest of the world.

 

[Shaihulud]

I think the scnario is flawed, Japan would never aggressively attack anyone unless the world has been turned topsy turvy, then any prediction is meaningless. USA would never advocate Japan to attack China over trade deficeit, where would Usians buy their stuff from?

 

[Lord Baal]

Wow. Snorrius doesn't seem to understand economics, international relations, or history. Not really that rare, but it is when you're presenting a thesis combining all three.

 

[storical]

We all know it would not happen, right? But what if it did happen? Would the US and Japan win? Or would China?

 

[holy king]

poles are afraid of russia, russians are afraid of china, who are chinese afraid of?