Why China risks war

[xchen08]

While Snorrius' predictions do sound like something Paradox Games - like, a breakup of Russia isn't more possible then a breakup of the US, with the exception of North Caucasus. But North Caucasus sucks anyway.

While indeed only the Caucasus have any real likelyhood of breaking away from Russia, it is certainly not true that a Russian breakup is no more likely than U.S. While factors leading to potential breakup are considerably weaker than they were at the time the CIA report Snorrius was refering to was drafted, they still persist. The Russian economy remains dangerously dependent on resource extraction, and those resources remain unevenly distributed. Corruption and crime remain endemic. Other problems cited in the report, such as a cripplingly low birth rate, and high death rate also remain. Russian breakup is highly unlikely, while U.S. breakup is impossible without major unforseeable changes.

 

[storical]

Let me get this straight.

Yet the advances in economic theory that make your thesis laughable developed some time before that.

You seem to have it all crooked, you and this winner guy whoever he is. Who is this winner is he the roving forum scholar of this age? Do I have to believe with impunity what you two conjure up? I suppose your fantasy world also produces widgets, where, in your outlook, the human race has changed so, from the warmongers they once were? Your last sentence makes no sense whatsoever, but you are right about the Mongols. WAR IT CANNOT BE!

 

[Mowque]

China and Japan aren't going to war. Simple as that.

 

[Kozmos]

You seem to have it all crooked, you and this winner guy whoever he is. Who is this winner is he the roving forum scholar of this age? Do I have to believe with impunity what you two conjure up? I suppose your fantasy world also produces widgets, where, in your outlook, the human race has changed so, from the warmongers they once were? Your last sentence makes no sense whatsoever, but you are right about the Mongols. WAR IT CANNOT BE!

It seems evolution has bypassed you.

 

[Snorrius]

It seems evolution has bypassed you.

He meant that the belief in that humanity changed from warmongers to tree-loving elf-like creatures is hard to understand. Even though economics and "social sciences" have advanced, it does not changed the human nature.

 

[xchen08]

You seem to have it all crooked, you and this winner guy whoever he is. Who is this winner is he the roving forum scholar of this age? Do I have to believe with impunity what you two conjure up? I suppose your fantasy world also produces widgets, where, in your outlook, the human race has changed so, from the warmongers they once were? Your last sentence makes no sense whatsoever, but you are right about the Mongols. WAR IT CANNOT BE!

I find it kind of odd that you cut out the parts of my post that explain my last sentence, and then claimed that the last sentence made no sense. And no, the human race has not changed, but war has. Japan would no more profit from this war than it did from the last one, and most importantly, Japan knows it. Snorrius's world seems to be a modern day mod for Hearts of Iron. While that's sounds like a pretty fun game to play through, you might want to consider whether you want that to be your actual world as well.

 

[Snorrius]

Japan would no more profit from this war than it did from the last one, and most importantly, Japan knows it. Snorrius's world seems to be a modern day mod for Hearts of Iron. While that's sounds like a pretty fun game to play through, you might want to consider whether you want that to be your actual world as well.

I understand that when some forum member "Snorrius" predicts Japan's crash and rise of militaristic spirits - it may sound far-fetch. Well, may be Stratfor's predictions will sound more serious?

Stratfor «Japan: Prelude to an Economic Crash»

Spoiler :

Summary
Stratfor «Japan: Prelude to an Economic Crash»
Japan is back in recession — and given the demographic picture, far, far worse is in the country’s future.
Analysis

The Japanese Cabinet Office issued a notice Sept. 10 revising downward its estimates of the economy’s growth for the second quarter from 0.5 percent growth at an annualized rate to a 1.2 percent contraction.

Japan has no shortage of economic ailments, but deflation and failing demographics — not slow growth — are its biggest problems.

The Japanese economic model is predicated on the idea that one should be able to take out loans at low or even negative rates in order to maximize employment and market share. Profitability and return on capital are at best secondary concerns; the key is to maintain maximum cash flow.

Such a system tends to produce rapid growth, but only while the amount in outstanding loans is small. When profitability is of little concern, loans are made with little rationale, and in time a mountain of bad debt piles up and ultimately crashes the system.

The Japanese system experienced that crash in 1990 and has never returned to “normal” growth, flitting in and out of recession ever since. The damning effect that has had on confidence has made consumers and corporations alike nervous about spending or hiring, creating a vicious circle of shrinking economic activity. This is the textbook definition of deflation — the same deflation that bedeviled the United States during the Great Depression — and escaping it is difficult at best.

By paring interest rates to zero and maintaining robust deficit spending, Japan managed to stimulate enough economic activity to get its inflation rate back into positive territory in 2006 — but only barely, and certainly not in a sustainable way. Low rates and high spending only exacerbate the system’s endemic problems, preventing the economy from ever achieving healthy growth. Japan has now overused the tools, making the system addicted to rates near zero and deficit spending of roughly 6 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) simply to keep things afloat.


Now Japan faces the worst of all worlds. It is back in recession. Deflation has returned, making an easy exit from recession unlikely. Not only have past attempts to kick-start the economy landed the government with a national debt in excess of 150 percent of GDP, but Japan now has a budget deficit so large that more than two out of every five dollars spent is either the issuance of new debt or the maintenance of old. The problem is so large that even if Japan hurled its entire currency reserves at the dilemma it would pay off less than one-fifth of the debt.

This is now an unsolvable problem, as Japan has quite simply run out of time. Beginning in 2005, Japan’s population began to shrink; the country’s demographics are now upside-down. With every passing month, Japan will have fewer and fewer young workers to pay taxes to support a growing geriatric class, meaning that the debt will only climb.

Japan has the worst of it all: contraction, deflation, unmanageable debt, shrinking population, shrinking work force, shrinking tax base and increasing pension commitments. This problem cannot be solved by anything less than the complete implosion of the current political-economic system and its utter replacement by something fundamentally new.

What that fall and recovery will look like is anyone’s guess; one possibility is something resembling Argentina’s 2001 collapse. But Argentina’s agony is only a small taste of what could happen in Japan. Relative to the sizes of the countries’ economies, Japan’s per capita debt is four times the size of Argentina’s. In absolute terms, Japan’s national debt is more than 50 times as big. There truly is no precedent for the magnitude of Japan’s coming collapse.

I do not claim Japan is bound to attack China, but war conflict of some magnitude between those two is very possible.

 

[Dachs]

That article is from 2007. It's 2009 now. I don't see Japan wallowing in economic collapse.

 

[storical]

It seems evolution has bypassed you.

I see! A comedian, hmm! you are as funny as the new three stooges movie is gonna be. By the way it seems the library passed you by. or was it the other way around

I find it kind of odd that you cut out the parts of my post that explain my last sentence, and then claimed that the last sentence made no sense. And no, the human race has not changed, but war has. Japan would no more profit from this war than it did from the last one, and most importantly, Japan knows it. Snorrius's world seems to be a modern day mod for Hearts of Iron. While that's sounds like a pretty fun game to play through, you might want to consider whether you want that to be your actual world as well.

I am just speculating, I do not think for a minute it will happen, besides Japan cannot undertake aggressive war. Its an imaginary scenario, that to me just makes it interesting, I guess thats why I am on the civ forum. I love wargames and always have. We do not need or want more wars. My country has been fighting the taliban for 8 whole years now. It reminds me of Vietnam, there seems to be no end. I feel that America should depart from these useless wars, but I am not in charge. I am just now reading the whole story, I know the beginning, but I have some more reading to do. I just hope we soon leave those places.

 

[Snorrius]

That article is from 2007. It's 2009 now. I don't see Japan wallowing in economic collapse.

Well, article explains only reasons for it, but not specified time frame. If you follow the news about Japan, you may know that Japan's exports have fallen considerably, and what's more interesting is yen revalvation which kills Japan's competitive ability, so I would say the scenario of Japan's economy depression has began to realize (unlike war scenarios which are very dependent on government's decision, this economic process is hard to counter).

 

[Theige]

Well, article explains only reasons for it, but not specified time frame. If you follow the news about Japan, you may know that Japan's exports have fallen considerably, and what's more interesting is yen revalvation which kills Japan's competitive ability, so I would say the scenario of Japan's economy depression has began to realize (unlike war scenarios which are very dependent on government's decision, this economic process is hard to counter).

Japan is still a net exporter, even with a stronger Yen.

Their public debt is also 175+% of GDP, nearly twice that of the U.S. (Proving that an enormous debt does not necessarily mean economic collapse)