2018 U.S election

[Timsup2nothin]

I've yet to see evidence that statewide office in GA is gettable for the Democrats.

While this is true, the level of tampering required to prevent it has reached an absurdist level that I can't believe is sustainable. The legal battle over tonight's governor's race might still be ongoing at the time.

 

[Martin Alvito]

While this is true, the level of tampering required to prevent it has reached an absurdist level that I can't believe is sustainable. The legal battle over tonight's governor's race might still be ongoing at the time.

Kavanaugh literally makes anything possible on that front, I'm afraid.

The only bit of good news on that front is that Missouri and Colorado passed ballot measures with regard to that nonsense which have sufficient force to trump the courts. One can hope that such measures will broadly hit state ballots in 2020, and that they will at least partially offset the nonsense that will come out of the Census.

 

[AdrienIer]

MT and AZ looking good for democrats. The 538 chat says Heller might also be in big trouble, doing worse than Trump 2 years ago

Edit : ok MT much closer than I thought

 

[Timsup2nothin]

Kavanaugh literally makes anything possible on that front, I'm afraid.

The only bit of good news on that front is that Missouri and Colorado passed ballot measures with regard to that nonsense which have sufficient force to trump the courts. One can hope that such measures will broadly hit state ballots in 2020, and that they will at least partially offset the nonsense that will come out of the Census.

Despite GOP control, which is slipping anyway, I think improving election performance is the major issue of the next two years. The level of absurdity on display is just impossible to ignore, and that's not going to fade.

 

[Takhisis]

But he was at least in the US. People defending the Alamo weren't.

He wasn't in the US. He was on British soil.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

He wasn't in the US. He was on British soil.

Not when he got elected president he wasn't.

 

[Martin Alvito]

Despite GOP control, which is slipping anyway, I think improving election performance is the major issue of the next two years. The level of absurdity on display is just impossible to ignore, and that's not going to fade.

This is interesting, because I feel that the education system is job #1. It is my sense that if you solve that problem, you win on any basic fairness issue you care to name at the polls.

That said, if you live in a state like Georgia then you likely have cause to feel differently. I've lived in North Carolina and Tennessee, so I get where you're coming from.

 

[Commodore]

I'm off to bed guys. Happier Days ahead.

So political deadlock is "Happier Days" to you? Because with Republicans holding the Senate and Democrats taking the House, that's what we can look forward to for the next two years. I don't know about you, but the idea of the government getting nothing done for the next two years doesn't exactly fill me with optimism.

 

[Sommerswerd]

So political deadlock is "Happier Days" to you? Because with Republicans holding the Senate and Democrats taking the House, that's what we can look forward to for the next two years. I don't know about you, but the idea of the government getting nothing done for the next two years doesn't exactly fill me with optimism.

Sure it does. You (the royal you) like paralyzed government because when they are paralyzed things remain stable. They can't do anything besides bloviate at each other. There's no smaller government than a gridlocked government... gridlock makes government irrelevant... status quo reigns.

You get to keep your guns another 2 years at least

 

[Commodore]

Sure it does. You (the royal you) like paralyzed government because when they are paralyzed things remain stable. They can't do anything besides bloviate at each other. There's no smaller government than a gridlocked government... gridlock makes government irrelevant... status quo reigns.

You get to keep your guns another 2 years at least

Nah, I actually want to see things getting done one way or the other, and I think most other Americans feel the same way. Being in constant political deadlock does more damage to the country than either side's agenda precisely because it does not create stability. An agenda creates stability because at least then people know what's going on and what direction we are headed and can adjust their lives accordingly. Deadlock just creates uncertainty and confusion and ultimately makes the country weaker since there is no clear vision or direction.

 

[Sommerswerd]

Nah, I actually want to see things getting done one way or the other, and I think most other Americans feel the same way. Being in constant political deadlock does more damage to the country than either side's agenda precisely because it does not create stability. An agenda creates stability because at least then people know what's going on and what direction we are headed and can adjust their lives accordingly. Deadlock just creates uncertainty and confusion and ultimately makes the country weaker since there is no clear vision or direction.

You sidestepped the most important point. You're not losing your guns in a deadlocked government. Can you at least concede that?

 

[Bootstoots]

Nah, I actually want to see things getting done one way or the other, and I think most other Americans feel the same way. Being in constant political deadlock does more damage to the country than either side's agenda precisely because it does not create stability. An agenda creates stability because at least then people know what's going on and what direction we are headed and can adjust their lives accordingly. Deadlock just creates uncertainty and confusion and ultimately makes the country weaker since there is no clear vision or direction.

I don't see why that would be the case. In a deadlocked government, nothing of any importance happens for either party. It's the ultimate in stable situations. I can understand not supporting "nothing happens" as an outcome, but you can't use uncertainty/instability as a justification for that lack of support.

 

[Lexicus]

Nah, I actually want to see things getting done one way or the other, and I think most other Americans feel the same way. Being in constant political deadlock does more damage to the country than either side's agenda precisely because it does not create stability. An agenda creates stability because at least then people know what's going on and what direction we are headed and can adjust their lives accordingly. Deadlock just creates uncertainty and confusion and ultimately makes the country weaker since there is no clear vision or direction.

If you think the Republican agenda creates anything remotely resembling "stability" well then...quote Obi-Wan Kenobi "you are lost"

Of course, the problem is that insofar as the Democratic agenda is neoliberalism to the max it also creates instability (hence Trump)

From what we saw in polls (candidate support numbers and engagement) by Republicans in the aftermath of Kavanaugh's confirmation vs. before, I'm fairly confident that there was a net-negative effect to the Democrats from the #MeToo attempt against Kavanaugh. As you (inno) said, this does now appear to have been a serious mistake.

What, because large amounts of Republicans support rape if it means owning the libs? That's nothing we didn't know before this election. They elected a rapist to the Presidency after all.

 

[metalhead]

Trump, then, is probably best explained as activating both sides and contributing towards polarization. He wins states and districts where his message resonates and loses hard where his message turns voters off and activates the opposition. He can be beaten in places where there are enough educated voters to hear and comprehend policy messaging, but is untouchable in places where the demographics are in his favor.

I think this explains it well. I'm disappointed that in 2 years, Democrats (with a couple noticeable exceptions like Sherrod Brown) haven't figured out how to counter Trump's message in the places he is able to activate his base.

If you look at Brown's map, he keeps the margins down across much of the more rural counties in Ohio, and cruises to an 8 point win while Cordray loses the governer's race pretty convincingly by getting pounded in those places.

I don't think Trump is untouchable, I just don't think Democrats have figured out a comprehensive strategy for beating him, where beating him means keeping margins in rural counties down to levels where you can make it up in more populated places.

Of course, odds are there will be a recession in the next 2 years, and that coupled with Trump's general odiousness will take care of it on its own.

 

[Cutlass]

So did Republicans get away with enough treason to not blame Democrats for treason or start a treason revolution?

 

[Lexicus]

Of course, odds are there will be a recession in the next 2 years, and that coupled with Trump's general odiousness will take care of it on its own.

Don't count on it. They will blame the Democrats. Shouldn't have given them the House, or the recession wouldn't have happened.

 

[EnglishEdward]

The GOP underperformed the map in the Senate by a long shot, losing races in several Trump states. I don't see how this can be spun as any sort of win for the GOP.

Well, the way I see it from the East of the salty pond.

It is the overall results that count, and the Republicans held the senate.

The Donald can therefore legitimately call the elections a draw or dead heat.

We know that the Donald won POTUS because his team sensibly concentrated on campaigning decisively in swing states
to win the ECV while Hilary's team dissipated their efforts in canvassing more widely winning the popular vote to no benefit.

It will be interesting to see what the analysts' conclusions are in the effectiveness of directed campaigning this time.

 

[onejayhawk]

Of course, odds are there will be a recession in the next 2 years, and that coupled with Trump's general odiousness will take care of it on its own.

I agree about the recession though 2 1/2 years is most likely. That puts it after the election. The problem with your theory is that Trump's odiousness is largely figured into the system already.

MT and AZ looking good for democrats. The 538 chat says Heller might also be in big trouble, doing worse than Trump 2 years ago Edit : ok MT much closer than I thought

Seven hours later, not so much. It also looks like the Republicans will also survive an unexpected Senate loss in Mississippi. +5 is better than almost anyone expected. That said, the 2020 map is much better for Democrats.

Sommerswerd said it first, a mixed bag. The Democrats win the House, but with a paper-thin margin. It's currently at 5 and might go up to 15 with the close races finish. Based on the current tallies, most likely either 5 or 7. The Republicans do better than expected in the Senate. The Democrats win the night in the Gubernatorial races. This is significant because Republicans dominated the state races for a decade.

J

 

[metalhead]

Don't count on it. They will blame the Democrats. Shouldn't have given them the House, or the recession wouldn't have happened.

Yeah, but the thing is, what Donald Trump says doesn't matter.

I agree about the recession though 2 1/2 years is most likely. That puts it after the election. The problem with your theory is that Trump's odiousness is largely figured into the system already.

His odiousness would have cost him the presidential election against a slightly less odious opponent, if not for the meddling of foreign propagandists and/or the FBI.

Take away both of those things and put a recession on top of it, and he's not going to win re-election.

 

[Hrothbern]

First of all I am very happy that the House was won by the Dem's.


Trump did all or most of his last week efforts, rallies in the states where he wanted to secure Senate seats.
No dissipation from efforts for the House, focus on the Senate, on the win, on being the victorious allmighty factor for the win in the Senate, "writing history". Focus on the story to spin as prep for 2020.

The following article in the Guardian concludes something similar and adds as analysis that Trump has as much focus on "his taking over" of the GOP, by his agenda on radical right nativism, pushing more traditional politicians out of the seats and party influence. Under the tactical banner and disguise of making this midterm election a referendum on him. Focus on the GOP power structure as prep for 2020.
(I like the author Cas Mudde BTW, a professor in Georgia, I guess also because he is Dutch and I can better read and pick up what he says. And most what he says on populism in Europe shows at least more basic understanding than usual in the Guardian)

Trump’s biggest victory, however, was within the Republican party. When he won the nomination, many prominent conservatives and Republicans were openly Never Trumpers. When he won the presidency, most Republicans decided to accept him, hoping to mold him into a mainstream conservative. Just two years later, without Steve Bannon and other alleged spin doctors, Trump has shaped the Republican party in his image instead.
Whether the Republican establishment likes it or not – and more and more are actually perfectly happy with it – the Grand Old Party is now Trump’s Party. Their fate is intertwined with his. The old conservative Republican party is dead, for now. The coming two years they will campaign as a radical right party, led by an omnipresent leader, who will define the Republican party for a whole generation of Americans.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/nov/07/midterms-not-a-bad-night-for-trump

It remains to be seen imo whether the Dem's can find the right strategy in the coming two years. Or they just have to sit out their internal lack of coordination and get somehow saved by demographical and general trends.