2019 NFL Regular Season Thread

[Timsup2nothin]

It was the lions, geeze. And if that was the only sample, maybe. But we have a whole year to look at, and it sucks.

Question is, how much of the rest of the sample is similar? It seems like he is very capable of running a short pass, ball control style offense, but if you have a line that is absolutely penalty happy and continuously turns second and six going to be third and two into second and sixteen that kind of offense cannot function. So is it his fault that he ends up in an offense he isn't effective with trying to come from behind the chains? I mean, those guys were holding for no reason whatever all over the place. Quick hitter pass to the flat, ball is out in a second and a half, edge rusher couldn't get to the QB if you just let him go...and the guy tackles him to the ground. Running play, guy who is not at the point of attack has a perfectly good block and the back is gone...and he tackles his man to the ground.

I think Bears fans should think long and hard about whether they really want to let a top draft pick quarterback go down the road as a bust, because if someone puts that guy behind a line that plays with some discipline he might come back down the road with a steamroller and run over the Bears.

 

[Light Cleric]

Nah he looks like butt against real defenses; he's had like 3 good games this year and two have been against the Lions (this is straight from the Matt Flynn School of Quarterbacking). Against the Saints it was the same story as against most teams; missing open receivers, making poor reads, and just being generally inaccurate even when not pressured, which is why that game turned into a blowout when the Bears' D finally cracked ( half his yards + both TDs came after they were down 36-10 in the 4th and he STILL only finished with 251 yards on *54* attempts).

Is that worth +$30 million? Is this where a third year QB should be?

Also I was wrong this was the best highlight from Saints/Falcons

I've been sick the past few days and my throat hurts from laughing for a full minute at this but it was worth it

 

[caketastydelish]

FWIW I think the Lions are actually a better team than their record indicates. The talent is there but they haven’t quite been able to put it together, similar to the Browns. With good draft picks + another offseason of free agency to improve the team they could be contenders to win the division next year.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

Nah he looks like butt against real defenses; he's had like 3 good games this year and two have been against the Lions (this is straight from the Matt Flynn School of Quarterbacking). Against the Saints it was the same story as against most teams; missing open receivers, making poor reads, and just being generally inaccurate even when not pressured, which is why that game turned into a blowout when the Bears' D finally cracked ( half his yards + both TDs came after they were down 36-10 in the 4th and he STILL only finished with 251 yards on *54* attempts).

Is that worth +$30 million? Is this where a third year QB should be?

Couple questions:

Would it really take 30+ million to sign him? Not that they actually have to hurry to sign him.

Is that not better than could be expected from a first year quarterback, even if it isn't up to third year standards? Not that I'm really sure that it isn't.

I'm just sort of amused that he is very likely to get run out of Chicago, more due to fan pressure demanding "do something" than any actual plan for improvement. And I think he'll be a more than adequate starter for some team on a budget while the Bears will be thrashing randomly about trying to replace him.

 

[Light Cleric]

He won't be on a "budget" for much longer.

The number isn't the $30 mil I thought, but the fifth year option will be obnoxious for his level of production. Because he's a top-10 pick his 2021 option is more expensive than other 1st rounders - it'll be equal to the 2020 QB transition tag (the average of the top 10 QB salaries) which is estimated to be about $22.78 million. They have to decide by May 3rd of next year whether to pick it up. It's guaranteed for injury only so theycould cut him during the 2021 offseason, but that still means not going to playing for them cheap past next year.

Also, the Bears have been trashed for Trubisky since day 1. He was a reach at #2 overall, they drafted him over Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson, and the 49ers' rookie GM clowned them into giving up two 3rds and a 4th to move up one spot to get him. He's not making any real progression as a player, which is a huge problem for someone three years in.

 

[caketastydelish]

He is definitely not as good as Watson and Mahomes, those two are exceptionally good quarterbacks. Even if you have the luxury picking the top QB in the draft there’s no guarantee they’ll be nearly that good. Obviously, in hindsight trading up for Tribusky when they could have just got Mahomes or Watson was a huge mistake, but even if they keep throwing first rounders on QBs, there’s still no guarantee they’ll end up with someone who is actually better than Tribusky.

They won’t have a first round pick next year so there’s only so much they can do, but the future they can ask themselves do they want to play QB roulette, or use their capital (as well as possibly free agency) to surround him with better weapons. As long as his next contract is not absurd, I’d personally keep him. The Rams, for example, definitely paid too much for Jared Goff. but if they don’t have to pay him top QB money but something much more manageable I’d just keep him.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

They aren't going to get clowned any less if they call him a bust and dump him. They still will have missed on Watson and Mahomes, and they'll have nothing to show for it at all.

And I seriously think that the thing most in need of changing is the offensive line coach.

 

[caketastydelish]

There are also other options on the market such as Teddy Bridgewater so even if they want to move on, sacrificing high draft capital on a future QB might not be a wise investment. The only exception is if there’s someone available in the draft they can get (without having to sacrifice too much by trading up), that they are absolutely sure will be an incredible player. But that, of course, is unlikely to happen.

This is racist but I don’t care: lately, dual threat black QBs worthy of taking in the first round have been good.

Deshaun Watson, Lamar Jackson, and now, Kyler Murray. Hell, even Prescott and Brissett weren’t drafted in the first round and I would say both of them are at least as good as Tribusky.

If someone like that is available I’d take him but otherwise I wouldn’t necessarily do that.

edit: and of course, I havent even mentioned Russell Wilson.

RGIII didn’t turn out well be he seems to be the exception, not the norm.

edit: unrelated note that is speculating FAR into the future: If the Redskins manage to draft Chase Young (while everything defensively that they already have) it would instantly give one of the best defensive line in the NFL. Yes, they have pressing needs. but they probably won’t have the top pick and he seems to unanimously considered the best player in the draft. In that case, personally, I think value is just too good to pass up. Especially when you’re in a division where two of your rivals have solid to elite offensive lines (Eagles, Cowboys).

 

[Timsup2nothin]

Bridgewater is a bidding war waiting to happen that very likely will wind up above thirty million.

 

[caketastydelish]

That’s ridiculous. He’s not that good. He was supported by a great offensive line, Michael Thomas, Cook, and their offensive mastermind of their head coach. And from what we know now, while he won his games, he’s still a noticeable downgrade from an aging Drew Brees.

Bridgewater is a decent QB, but not elite. So you’d be dumb to pay him elite money. You’re better drafting a rookie of a similar description than take that kind of a cap hit.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

That’s ridiculous. He’s not that good. He was supported by a great offensive line, Michael Thomas, Cook, and their offensive mastermind of their head coach. And from what we know now, while he won his games, he’s still a noticeable downgrade from an aging Drew Brees.

Bridgewater is a decent QB, but not elite. So you’d be dumb to pay him elite money. You’re better drafting a rookie of a similar description than take that kind of a cap hit.

In terms of proven quality commodity, Bridgewater is head, shoulders, belly, and groin above what Garoppolo was when the bidding war over him erupted. He's a veteran quarterback that took a middling quality team and turned it into a playoff team. He got injured, but has demonstrated that he is pretty much back at the same level he was at before the injury, that level being playoff caliber starting quarterback. I'm not suggesting that *I* plan on ponying up 30 million a year for him, but do you seriously think that no one will?

 

[caketastydelish]

Fair enough, never thought of it that way.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

Further evidence...Kirk Cousins. If my choices were bid on Bridgewater as he is today or bid on Kirk Cousins as he looked when he escaped from Washington I'd bid higher for Bridgewater and I suspect most NFL GMs would too...and there was no shortage of monster offers for Cousins.

Teams who might pony up a Brinks truck for Bridgewater:

The Chargers need to replace Rivers, and they are too good to count on doing so in the draft. A suck for a year and go for next years draft during year one in their new stadium would be pretty much a self inflicted bullet to the brain, financially.

Dallas is always burning money, and Bridgewater, IMO, is a brighter future than Prescott. As long as they have to burn a mountain of money they'd be better doing it that way.

Tennessee is also too good to get it done in the draft but not really set on anyone on the roster.

If Chicago is ditching Trubisky there is really nowhere else for them to go.

The Steelers are in the soup if Roethlisberger is done, and would anyone be surprised if he is?

Washington is such a cluster that they can never be counted out when they might do something outrageously stupid.

The Cheatriots are one solid hit on a raggedy old body away from having no quarterback at all. Who knows what that situation will be at the end of the season.

It only takes two serious players to have a bidding war, and I'm thinking there's at least three or four.

 

[rah]

Things are truly sad when the goal is an adequate QB. When your last adequate QB was Rex Grossman, (and that's even a stretch) it gets depressing. And I think that's the biggest problem here. There was so much hope. Now the best outcome is mediocrity. OR spending a boat load on Bridgewater. Argggg. And worse is the Packers have had only two great ones recently while we've had about 20 crappy ones.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

Things are truly sad when the goal is an adequate QB. When your last adequate QB was Rex Grossman, (and that's even a stretch) it gets depressing. And I think that's the biggest problem here. There was so much hope. Now the best outcome is mediocrity. OR spending a boat load on Bridgewater. Argggg. And worse is the Packers have had only two great ones recently while we've had about 20 crappy ones.

The last good Bears quarterback was Sid Luckman.

 

[caketastydelish]

Honestly if I’m the Bears I’d just stick with Tribusky for one more year. He will still be on his rookie contract, then in 2021 you’ll have a first round pick again. As long as that one ends up being decent (at least as good as Bridgewater) it would be better because you’ll have him on a rookie contract rather than getting your cap space squeezed right off the bat as you’d get by signing Bridgewater.

Franchise QBs get paid a LOT when their rookie deal ends but having a solid QB on a rookie contract (while being able to supply talent because you can afford it while you can) more or less puts a team in “win now” mode. If I’m the Bears I wouldn’t get someone like Bridgewater unless it’s a reasonable price.

The Patriots might be better off doing that because they are always getting very bad draft picks, near the end of each round. It is likely that next year the Bears won’t be any better than this year, meaning in 2021 draft you have a reasonably good chance of landing a solid QB without even having to trade too much and jeopardize your future. That said, I will not pretend for a second that I keep up with college football, and if there are any truly great QBs approaching in the 2021 draft.

 

[rah]

The last good Bears quarterback was Sid Luckman.

Yes, before I was born, that long ago

He will still be on his rookie contract, then in 2021 you’ll have a first round pick again.

Unless we get a new management team there is no reason to expect that they would make a good pick with that. History shows differently.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

I think the chances of getting "at least as good as Bridgewater" are slim and none. In his rookie season Bridgewater took an offense built around Adrian Peterson to a mediocre 7-9 record without Adrian Peterson. In his second season he took that same team to the playoffs. Only the "huge successes" in the current crop of freshly drafted quarterbacks show up anywhere near as promising as Bridgewater was before he got hurt...and the Saints have given him the opportunity to show that he has recovered from being hurt. A drafted quarterback is always a crap shoot, and Bridgewater is a proven talent...pricey though, no question.

 

[caketastydelish]

I don’t keep up with the Vikings much haven’t they pretty much always had a solid defense? Or at least from the time Bridgewater was their QB. Making the playoffs is much easier when you have a lot of help from the other side or the ball. He doesn't seem THAT great to me but we probably just have differing opinions. I don’t think he’s better than Carson Wentz, Deshaun Watson, Mahomes, Kyler Murray, Daniel Jones, Baker Mayfield, Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Brissett, Derek Carr, Jimmy G, Prescott, possibly others.

These are QBs drafted since Bridgewaters time that I’d consider to be at least as good as him. I don’t think he’s remotely near “elite QB” status and I would draft someone and see what happens before locking down a non-elite QB with elite QB money.

The Rams have already made that mistake, and look where it’s gotten them.

edit: random other thing: If Tua doesn’t get selected throughout most of the first round because he’s injured or whatever, do you Belichick would pass the opportunity up? I’m almost certain the answer is no. It doesn’t matter that he’s injured because Tom Brady wants to play until he’s 45 and even if he doesn’t he will have at least one year to sit behind him. This will extend the Patriots dynasty into the indefinite future. I hope I’m wrong, of course.

 

[Serutan]

Further evidence...Kirk Cousins. If my choices were bid on Bridgewater as he is today or bid on Kirk Cousins as he looked when he escaped from Washington I'd bid higher for Bridgewater and I suspect most NFL GMs would too...and there was no shortage of monster offers for Cousins.

Teams who might pony up a Brinks truck for Bridgewater:

The Chargers need to replace Rivers, and they are too good to count on doing so in the draft. A suck for a year and go for next years draft during year one in their new stadium would be pretty much a self inflicted bullet to the brain, financially.

Dallas is always burning money, and Bridgewater, IMO, is a brighter future than Prescott. As long as they have to burn a mountain of money they'd be better doing it that way.

Tennessee is also too good to get it done in the draft but not really set on anyone on the roster.

If Chicago is ditching Trubisky there is really nowhere else for them to go.

The Steelers are in the soup if Roethlisberger is done, and would anyone be surprised if he is?

Washington is such a cluster that they can never be counted out when they might do something outrageously stupid.

The Cheatriots are one solid hit on a raggedy old body away from having no quarterback at all. Who knows what that situation will be at the end of the season.

It only takes two serious players to have a bidding war, and I'm thinking there's at least three or four.

Re Big Ben : To support your point, an elbow injury ended Terry Bradshaw's career, and after a similar number of years.

Teddy's perspective also comes into play here. He demonstrated last year that he's going to be careful where he signs.
This eliminates the Skins as he is definitely too smart to get Snyderized although he may not be above using them to
up the bids.

The others are I think fair game, except Dallas and Chicago. Dallas isn't getting rid of Prescott - while I don't think he's an elite quarterback, I think he'd be good enough with a competent coaching staff. And IIRC Chicago cannot create nearly enough cap space.

If Carolina were to release Newton, that could get interesting wrt Teddy as well.

All this assumes Drew Brees does not retire. If he does, Teddy stays in NO out of a combination of gratitude for the chance they gave him + it being a good situation unless they try to lowball him in a way which the Saints don't appear to subscribe.