2020 US Election (Part One)

[Timsup2nothin]

The fundamental problem for Buttigieg is that he's the only candidate of the top four who needs to win Iowa. Biden, Sanders, and Warren will be fine without it - though Warren might be in trouble if she can't get either Iowa or New Hampshire. Buttigieg will be hoping that if Biden runs in 4th in Iowa and New Hampshire, lots of people start looking his way, but the stumbling block will be ensuring those people include voters in South Carolina. Otherwise Biden will still go into Super Tuesday with a fresh win under his belt. It's unclear who Buttigieg would prefer to win in South Carolina.

That could change, though, if Biden's fundraising doesn't pick up. Buttigieg will have a lot of money going into next year if his polling in Iowa keeps up, so he may be able to take advantage of his Iowa lead before he actually wins it. The other side of that coin is that if these polls turn out to be anomalies and he falls over the next couple of months, he could be thrown into the Harris 'has been' category.

All accurate, but I think he sucks all important money away from Biden as well. I also really can't see any way for him to fall. His standing among those who know who he is has been extremely solid, and the number who know who he is can't really do anything but go up.

I don't think Biden needs a win in the two openers, but I think he needs to knock Buttigieg out. He can come in third so long as Buttigieg comes in fourth, but if he comes in fourth and Buttigieg has a really strong showing that could be all she wrote for Biden.

 

[Kyriakos]

Well, it was actually me that was pointing out that it was way to early to dismiss Buttigieg out of hand since the Iowa caucus is still a bit more than two months away.

The critical piece of information though is name recognition. That's baked in for the other contenders. No one in Iowa between now and February is going to suddenly wake up one day saying "hey, have you ever heard of this Sanders fella?" Same for Biden, and maybe just slightly less so for Warren. And the same goes for nationally between now and November.

Sanders is a known commodity and the only way he is going to gain support is when Warren drops out. Nobody is going to "discover" him, because everyone already knows him. Nobody is going to suddenly come around because they find out that he is pro-whatever, because whatever he is in favor of everyone already knows he is in favor of it. Again, same for Warren and Biden.

But people are discovering Buttigieg every day...and if he wins in Iowa a whole lot of people will wake up the next day saying "Who is this guy? What is he standing for?" That gives him something that the others all lack...potential. If Biden takes a beating in Iowa and NH he might drop out, and Buttigieg is the most likely choice for any Biden voter that has heard of him, and if he has two strong showings everyone will be hearing of him.

I think he has a legitimate shot.

That the above is what CNN,NBC and pals are laying rather thickly is obvious. But I am not seeing how Buttigieg will ever get a shot when he is polling at 0% with black people and latino. Surely the roof there isn't to take the black voters who support Biden.

To me he seems to be rather clearly a trojan of the establishment, in a hope to have a back-up when the inevitable happens and Biden drops out. Buttigieg has more billionaire donor money than the others, which is pretty impressive given how unknown he indeed was - another reason to identify all this as very deliberate hype by the media and their handlers who pay their adds and other interested parties in power.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

That the above is what CNN,NBC and pals are laying rather thickly is obvious. But I am not seeing how Buttigieg will ever get a shot when he is polling at 0% with black people and latino. Surely the roof there isn't to take the black voters who support Biden.

To me he seems to be rather clearly a trojan of the establishment, in a hope to have a back-up when the inevitable happens and Biden drops out. Buttigieg has more billionaire donor money than the others, which is pretty impressive given how unknown he indeed was - another reason to identify all this as very deliberate hype by the media and their handlers who pay their adds and other interested parties in power.

What's his name recognition among the black voters polled? Probably not much above zero, since his name recognition overall isn't much above zero. That can be fixed.

 

[hobbsyoyo]

Sometimes I forget Joe Biden is running, then I remember and get sad.

 

[Ironsided]

Popular with who? Health insurance he supports public option, which is popular with pretty much everyone except the most extreme progressives who are demanding "not optional, take it and like it." He supports universal background checks for gun purchases, which is popular with pretty much everyone, much to the NRA's dismay. He wants to address cliamte change, which is popular with everybody except the most extreme science denying dingbats. He supports a pathway to citizenship for the undocumented, which is popular with all the left and about half the right.

That’s weak sauce. Popular with ignorants and Boomers maybe, which in fairness have a lot of overlap. Buttys healthcare-plan which I think he at some point of reaching peak dishonesty called “Medicare for all who want it” is a BS plan because keeping the private side in the system; they will only cover cases that are profitable and leave all the tough cases to the public option. The plan then is to point out with the glee only cheap and dishonest confirmation bias gives that the private option is doing financially better and that you never should have done the change in the first place. Trust me, we now have a mishmash of both models but for different illnesses and ailments in Sweden (thanks to our “liberals” and moderates).

Who in the democratic race does not support background checks for guns? Am I missing something here or is Buttys background checks better in some way? Climate change – same – no actually are you kidding us? Look at Bernies plan for a green new deal and compare to Butty stumbling. Butty is toddler-level clarity on these issues – even compared to Warren who could fairly be seen as a medium between the extremes of the party today. Make no mistake here, Butty is 100% centrist republican, sorry, democratic “centrist” establishment, if you will. He wasn’t at the start. He is now - because his analysts told him that’s the best position for him in this race. You see he cares NOTHING about Americans and ALL about his chances to do political career.

 

[hobbsyoyo]

Butty is toddler-level clarity on these issues

Sometimes, that's all the voting public wants.

I also think you're overestimating the appetite for fully socialized medicine in the US. A decade ago we barely go Obamacare, which squeaked by with the thinnest of margins in Congress after a wave election and was so unpopular that it cost the Dems the House and their Senate supermajority the following year. It has taken pretty much the full decade for that program to stop being underwater in the polls. People do recognize there is a problem but I don't think the public yet have coalesced around a preferred fix and many people are still leery of anything that can be branded as socialist.

 

[Kyriakos]

Sometimes, that's all the voting public wants.

I also think you're overestimating the appetite for fully socialized medicine in the US. A decade ago we barely go Obamacare, which squeaked by with the thinnest of margins in Congress after a wave election and was so unpopular that it cost the Dems the House and their Senate supermajority the following year. It has taken pretty much the full decade for that program to stop being underwater in the polls. People do recognize there is a problem but I don't think the public yet have coalesced around a preferred fix and many people are still leery of anything that can be branded as socialist.

Didn't Butt get booed in Iowa when presenting his healthcare plan?

 

[Fippy]

Biden still with chances?
Geez..they must be desperate.

 

[Kyriakos]

President Maibos

 

[hobbsyoyo]

Didn't Butt get booed in Iowa when presenting his healthcare plan?

No idea

 

[Kyriakos]

No idea

 

[Ironsided]

Sometimes, that's all the voting public wants.

I also think you're overestimating the appetite for fully socialized medicine in the US. A decade ago we barely go Obamacare, which squeaked by with the thinnest of margins in Congress after a wave election and was so unpopular that it cost the Dems the House and their Senate supermajority the following year. It has taken pretty much the full decade for that program to stop being underwater in the polls. People do recognize there is a problem but I don't think the public yet have coalesced around a preferred fix and many people are still leery of anything that can be branded as socialist.

Who told you that – the media? Are you, as an American voter, under obligation to act like some sort of parakeet, reiterating MSM without cognitively processing the message? Why not choose a candidate on issues you agree with instead of who MSNBC, CNN and abc are pushing as most electable? They’re all biased and agenda-driven. They are all dependent on the pharmaceutical industry and lobbying. Do you honestly think stuttering Butty reading off a teleprompter will do better against Trump in a presidential debate than Bernie speaking his heart out on issues he fought for over forty years? Do you, really? I know MSNBC thinks you do.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

Who told you that – the media?

I'm thinking it was probably life experience. Try it sometime.

Didn't Butt get booed in Iowa when presenting his healthcare plan?

Of course. There's plenty of squalling Bernie babies still to contend with. The question is whether they learned anything last time, or they will once again just stamp their little feet and have a tantrum over not getting everything their way while the Trumpists get everything their way instead. Bernie himself has been in congress long enough to know that nothing happens without compromise, and he's not interested in another four years of nothing happening...but his cult of personality has gotten way out of control.

 

[Kyriakos]

^I am sure Butti will lure enough rust belt states voters to win against Trump. As in not; why would any majority opt for him there?
Must be corporate centrist magical thinking which will save the day.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

^I am sure Butti will lure enough rust belt states voters to win against Trump. As in not; why would any majority opt for him there?
Must be corporate centrist magical thinking which will save the day.

His midwest roots will certainly help. If he got the nomination the only way I could see him losing is if the Bernie babies throw an absolutely colossal tantrum. Warren's voters are more pragmatic, I think, so I'm not too worried about them.

 

[Kyriakos]

His midwest roots will certainly help. If he got the nomination the only way I could see him losing is if the Bernie babies throw an absolutely colossal tantrum. Warren's voters are more pragmatic, I think, so I'm not too worried about them.

Hoping that people who detest a candidate will somehow vote for him is... not a good strategy.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

Hoping that people who detest a candidate will somehow vote for him is... not a good strategy.

Nobody so far detests Buttigieg except some anti-LGBT right wingers. But I'm glad to see you coming around to why nominating Bernie is such a bad idea. Other than among the Bernie Babies he is widely detested. Heck, I agree with pretty much all of his policies and I still detest him personally.

 

[cardgame]

This says all I need for Buttigieg



I don't detest him outright, but he's just another weak candidate.

 

[Berzerker]

Nobody so far detests Buttigieg except some anti-LGBT right wingers. But I'm glad to see you coming around to why nominating Bernie is such a bad idea. Other than among the Bernie Babies he is widely detested. Heck, I agree with pretty much all of his policies and I still detest him personally.

why?

 

[cardgame]

lmao, I basically skimmed over it but the sheer arrogance of saying Bernie is widely detested. Bernie is the one setting the fudging pace for the 2020 primaries, everyone is taking cues from his 2016 run, all of the policy ideas are his or spinoffs, he is #1 in small donations. You couldn't be more wrong here Tim.