Timsup2nothin
Deity
- Joined
- Apr 2, 2013
- Messages
- 46,737
The fundamental problem for Buttigieg is that he's the only candidate of the top four who needs to win Iowa. Biden, Sanders, and Warren will be fine without it - though Warren might be in trouble if she can't get either Iowa or New Hampshire. Buttigieg will be hoping that if Biden runs in 4th in Iowa and New Hampshire, lots of people start looking his way, but the stumbling block will be ensuring those people include voters in South Carolina. Otherwise Biden will still go into Super Tuesday with a fresh win under his belt. It's unclear who Buttigieg would prefer to win in South Carolina.
That could change, though, if Biden's fundraising doesn't pick up. Buttigieg will have a lot of money going into next year if his polling in Iowa keeps up, so he may be able to take advantage of his Iowa lead before he actually wins it. The other side of that coin is that if these polls turn out to be anomalies and he falls over the next couple of months, he could be thrown into the Harris 'has been' category.
All accurate, but I think he sucks all important money away from Biden as well. I also really can't see any way for him to fall. His standing among those who know who he is has been extremely solid, and the number who know who he is can't really do anything but go up.
I don't think Biden needs a win in the two openers, but I think he needs to knock Buttigieg out. He can come in third so long as Buttigieg comes in fourth, but if he comes in fourth and Buttigieg has a really strong showing that could be all she wrote for Biden.