Lexicus
Deity
You think so? No recession before the election?
2020 US Election (Part One)
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You think so? No recession before the election?
hobbsyoyo
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Into Trump's accounts, albeit indirectly. He saves something like $800K in loan interest payments per year for every 0.25% drop in Fed interest rates. He attacks the Fed on interest rates primarily because it benefits him.
I know you were being a little tongue-in-cheek, but this sentiment is real. Many voters, especially including folks who are at least open to voting Democratic, are experiencing a non-negligible degree of non-white-male fatigue in terms of POTUS nominees. We can have a whole discussion about whether this is "fair" or not but that's a separate issue, and ultimately its academic, because they feel it regardless, on a sometimes conscious, sometimes subconscious level. I'm not exactly sure what is even the correct way to address this, but I think maybe it can be helpful to acknowledge it.The Dems haven't nominated a white male since 2004. They're actually over due to nominate one
onejayhawk
Afflicted with reason
Should white and male be a dis-qualifier?
I bumped the poll on Trump's chances. Despite the very liberal (for USA) tilt of the forum, Trump is favored to win.
J
I bumped the poll on Trump's chances. Despite the very liberal (for USA) tilt of the forum, Trump is favored to win.
J
I'm pretty sure that we will be able to smell it coming, but less sure that the man on the street will. I don't want to underestimate the power of 4% deficits plus a Federal Reserve that seems determined to not let air out of the bubble
hobbsyoyo
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I'm not sure this is that much of a thing to be honest but I also have to say that if it is, it may be a backlash against merely average politicians getting boosted because of their minority status - as if that alone was a reason they should be voted for.
Lexicus
Deity
I've been predicting an unprecedented hyper-bubble that lasts years before finally collapsing.
As I'm on the record saying multiple times my preferred candidate for the Democratic race this cycle was Gavin Newsom, but alas, he didn't run. I hope that answers your real question.
As a reminder, roughly 25% of West Virginia Democrats polled reported (admitted) in 2008 that they could not support Obama, specifically because he was black... Also, Biden and Sanders are currently leading... so... let's not misplace too much of our attention on the wrong issue.
As I unsubtly allude to above... What's not really much of a thing is anti-white-male candidate bias I'm hearing complained about. We've had 39 different POTUS'es win the electoral vote and 38 of them have been white males, including the current POTUS.
My point is that the perception that there is bias against white males is very real.
Probably, but I'm also thinking about 'what the voters will be able to detect happening'. Outside of 2020, I'm not sure what the source of new money will be. Once the various banks start doing QE again, it will be much easier to point out how the economy is being mismanaged. QE under Obama correlates with some pretty strong upwards transfer of wealth.
Zardnaar
Deity
In a perfect world if it was fair relative to to population you would expect a white to win 75% of the time. Of that 75% roughly half would be female. So you would expect a white male 1/3 nominations.
Dems haven't nominated one since 2004. I was being tongue in cheek.
Women are winning 50/50 here since we switched to proportional representation in 96. All white but thats also the biggest slice of the electorate, representation in parliament is fairly close to the overall country. Maori are slightly over represented, Asians under represented.
Can't decide if this is worth its own thread or not, but here's a hot take that I'm open to change: red states primaries don't matter half a damn. They never matter a wink in the general election anyway, so they shouldn't matter in the primaries either. All they do is poison the well against more progressive candidates because even the blue voters in red states are more conservative, at least en masse.
I'm 75% aware this is a terrible take but also the game theory makes 100% sense to me and yeah. Maybe it's a crappy view to hold but pragmatically speaking...
I'm 75% aware this is a terrible take but also the game theory makes 100% sense to me and yeah. Maybe it's a crappy view to hold but pragmatically speaking...
If I'm reading you right, cardgame, it's that the Overton window has been moved so far to the right in some individual states that their electorates shouldn't be taken into account?
If so, I have two questions:
a) what about those who do matter in such states?
b) how do you pull the Overton window back to a less insane position?
If so, I have two questions:
a) what about those who do matter in such states?
b) how do you pull the Overton window back to a less insane position?
Berzerker
Deity
you got me wondering what % of WV Republicans would refuse to vote for a nominee because they're black
could it be the LP is the whitest and least racist of the 3?
Lexicus
Deity
The simple answer is that
you can't actually do anything about it, the simplest reason being that you can't predict which states will be red in the actual election.
Zardnaar
Deity
Several red states are trending towards purple.
You need to win some of those states to dump Trump.
There are no more liberal states or Senate seats to pick up. Trump's repulsiveness is the best asset the Dems have. He will probably lose IMHO but you also need the Senate to get anything done or appoint supreme Court justices.
And in those states a white male would have an advantage. Failing that a charismatic anything.
Bush was crap and Obama had charisma. Pity hope and change didn't really deliver.
You need to win some of those states to dump Trump.
There are no more liberal states or Senate seats to pick up. Trump's repulsiveness is the best asset the Dems have. He will probably lose IMHO but you also need the Senate to get anything done or appoint supreme Court justices.
And in those states a white male would have an advantage. Failing that a charismatic anything.
Bush was crap and Obama had charisma. Pity hope and change didn't really deliver.
Berzerker
Deity
Kamala Harris is in hot water... A guy at her rally referred to Trump's ******** behavior and she laughed. The people with disabilities didn't take kindly to that, so she denied hearing the guy's comment. It was clear from the video she not only heard what he said, she started laughing and agreeing with him. So she lied too.
She is polling at 7%. Her candidacy already has ended. I think that this is about the only positive development in that race.
mitsho
Deity
You really take sides and hold grudges against people? Why, you don't know Harris personally right?
As for the gaffe, doesn't sound good, but I'd need to look it up and frankly, what benefit is there? Also, how does this compare to Sanders silencing a baby? Not to speak of Trump. May this be a situation where a woman is judged more harshly than a man?
As for the gaffe, doesn't sound good, but I'd need to look it up and frankly, what benefit is there? Also, how does this compare to Sanders silencing a baby? Not to speak of Trump. May this be a situation where a woman is judged more harshly than a man?
Zardnaar
Deity
Top 3 popular ones with name recognition might not be the best candidates. Harris isn't down and out yet.
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