2020 US Election (Part One)

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Doesn't Bernie defeat Trump in virtually every poll ever done on the subject?

Polls are nonsense. Any past predictive value is illusory (not that it has much, these days).

Which was why the Marshall Plan was important.
Russia was in no condition to launch an invasion at that time and Stalin wasn't a gambler.
Stab Poland in the back and occupy the Baltic States easy. Invade Finland well the Russians expected that to be easy too.
Stalin wanted his cordon sanitaire and to restore Russian pre-Revolution borders. Everywhere except Finland he achieved that.

I don't think Western Europe could have held off the Soviets, especially given pro-communist sentiment in its own territory. But alternative history is basically all supposition. The fact is that the US's overwhelming military might affects the calculus for every other world leader, and makes them far less inclined to be aggressive.
 
The issue wasn't actually just Russia. Prior to NATO there was no indication that European states that had been pretty much continuously at war for their entire history were ever going to stop. Whether the next war would have been yet another round with Germany, or a renewal of the endless hostilities between Britain and France, or another "rise to glory" coming out of Iberia, or who knows what, the entire concept of "Europe at peace" was absolutely laughable at the time. Things look very different from the EU perspective of the 21st century, but the claim that this unprecedented situation would have come about some other way cannot be substantiated, and certainly couldn't have been predicted at the time.

That's not what Mouthwash is arguing though. It does of course require hindsight and access to Soviet archives to conclude that NATO was unnecessary to defend against the USSR.
In the case of which of the Marshall Plan, NATO and the EU made European war more unlikely you're quite right, it can't be proven even with hindsight.
 
In the case of which of the Marshall Plan, NATO and the EU made European war more unlikely you're quite right, it can't be proven even with hindsight.

While it can't be proven, it does seem to have worked out. Western Europe doesn't appear to be the mob of endlessly squabbling children that history said they had always been and always would be if left to their own devices.
 
While it can't be proven, it does seem to have worked out. Western Europe doesn't appear to be the mob of endlessly squabbling children that history said they had always been and always would be if left to their own devices.
Brexit is still lurching forward like a rudderless hulk with a broken mast and an empty boiler... making Scotland and Northern Ireland mumble about jumping off the sinking ship... once the UK collapses the rest of the EU may follow and then we're back to the good old days...:ack:
 
I didn't think I'd hear the popular Leaver refrain that the EU is doomed without us in it from you, Sommer.
 
The threat of force. ‘Peace through superior firepower’, the Tarkin doctrine, etc.
 
What does this even mean.

They do not rely upon magic, and neither does the US military. Minor African Dictatorship A will think twice about invading Minor African Dictatorship B for its resources if it knows the US will simply supply B with weapons or provide air support. It isn't enough to credit the American military for liberating Kuwait from Saddam Hussein, you have to consider all the other expansionist regimes who anticipated the reaction and never even tried.

The threat of force. ‘Peace through superior firepower’, the Tarkin doctrine, etc.

Not purely through fear and terror. It's about creating a balancing act; playing off ambitious countries against one another.
 
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I didn't think I'd hear the popular Leaver refrain that the EU is doomed without us in it from you, Sommer.
First of all I'm not really well versed enough about the Brexit/EU situation to do anything other than talk out my ass about it.

Second, I'm just going along with the ribbing in progress.;) I actually think the EU will continue to chug along just fine under their new German masters. :p

As an aside... why would "The EU is doomed without us" be a "Leaver refrain"? That seems to me to be a pretty compelling reason to Remain. What am I missing?:confused: Or Is it a tantrum-ey sort of "You'll miss me when I'm gone! :gripe: You'll see!!:cry:" sort of thing?
 
It doesn't rely on that either.
 
As an aside... why would "The EU is doomed without us" be a "Leaver refrain"? That seems to me to be a pretty compelling reason to Remain. What am I missing?:confused: Or Is it a tantrum-ey sort of "You'll miss me when I'm gone! :gripe: You'll see!!:cry:" sort of thing?

It's definitely intended in a negative fashion. Certain "prophets" have been predicting its imminent demise for years now, so of course it can't possibly survive now, right?
 
It's definitely intended in a negative fashion. Certain "prophets" have been predicting its imminent demise for years now, so of course it can't possibly survive now, right?

Speaking as one who has predicted trouble down the road for the EU (though not anything like "the EU without the UK is doomed) I am actually disappointed rather than happy about it.
 
It's definitely intended in a negative fashion. Certain "prophets" have been predicting its imminent demise for years now, so of course it can't possibly survive now, right?
Since part of the reason for the UN and I'd say the EU by extension, was to prevent future World Wars from starting in Europe, any breakdown of the EU is very, very sad.
 
Since part of the reason for the UN and I'd say the EU by extension, was to prevent future World Wars from starting in Europe, any breakdown of the EU is very, very sad.

The Eu isn't preventing wars in Europe; Ukraine is in Europe, so are the former yugoslav countries and so is Georgia. All have/had wars in the last 20 years.
The Eu is preventing military war in the Eu itself, but not preventing economic war, which has been ongoing for more than a decade now.
Lastly, it's not like France and Germany will go to war even without the Eu - unless Germany fails to find a nuclear power to protect it. What is very likely, though, is that the baltic small states will return to Russia's sphere, given they have large russian minorities. However one should not expect the Eu to protect those countries in case of a war with a massive nuclear power like Russia, so ultimately the sense of protection is false there as well.
 
Since part of the reason for the UN and I'd say the EU by extension, was to prevent future World Wars from starting in Europe, any breakdown of the EU is very, very sad.
I disagree.

What really prevented European war was the combination of American economic and military hegemony, the threat of Russian expansionism, and the occupation of Germany by the Allied powers after its total defeat and destruction.

Were any continental power to try and start another war they would have been crushed by an American-dominated alliance. I would argue the proof of this is in the 1956 Suez Crisis: Britain and France had to back down in the face of American economic pressure.
 
The Eu isn't preventing wars in Europe; Ukraine is in Europe, so are the former yugoslav countries and so is Georgia. All have/had wars in the last 20 years.
The Eu is preventing military war in the Eu itself, but not preventing economic war, which has been ongoing for more than a decade now.
Lastly, it's not like France and Germany will go to war even without the Eu - unless Germany fails to find a nuclear power to protect it. What is very likely, though, is that the baltic small states will return to Russia's sphere, given they have large russian minorities. However one should not expect the Eu to protect those countries in case of a war with a massive nuclear power like Russia, so ultimately the sense of protection is false there as well.
Whatever... Merry Christmas Kyr! :D
 
Yes, the peace promise of the EU is often overrated. Still, it is there. Mainly however, it is the change in mindset, all those pan-european institutions and programmes just existing is what makes europe great again. Im not only talking about the EU ones: all those umbrella associations of inter-trade to chambers of commerce. The bologna system of education and so on. Those positive integrations are what bring peace. And so much more. Now i allow you to have reservations on the current direction of that integration, but where else to debate that but in a democratic europe? We might be in the wrong thread though, im not sure how much this topic in here has to do with democracy. ;-)
 

Yang considering decriminalization of sex work (tho I never understood the decriminalizion of only the seller, doesn't make sense)
 
This deserves reposting:

Trump's holiday menu: handouts for billionaires, hunger for the poor
Republicans defend cuts to food stamps by saying that keeping people hungry will make them work harder. But we know this is just about cruelty
By Bernie Sanders and Rashida Tlaib

When it comes to billionaires benefiting from the generosity of the American taxpayer, the holiday spirit is alive year-round. Taxpayers paid out $115m to Donald Trump so he could play golf at his own resorts.

And Amazon didn’t just pay zero in federal taxes on $11bn in profits – taxpayers gifted the corporation $129,000,000 in rebates. That’s enough to pay for CEO Jeff Bezos’s three apartments in Manhattan, including a penthouse, that cost him $80m.

And what about government generosity for those who actually need help? Tax dollars are somehow much harder to come by when they’re not going to handouts for the rich. The average person in poverty, struggling to put food on the table, gets about $134 a month in nutrition assistance.

Now, just in time for the holidays, Trump has finalized the first of three policies that will make this disparity even more obscene. Two years after passing a $1.5tn tax giveaway to the wealthiest Americans and large corporations, the Trump administration plans to strip 3.7 million people of their nutrition benefits.

The administration’s first step is to kick 700,000 adults off of nutrition assistance as they struggle to find work. The second step: trying to punish families who have high childcare and housing costs. And third, they want to hurt families who already are making difficult choices between food or heat.

Together, the three proposals will cut billions of dollars from one of our nation’s leading anti-poverty programs. Meanwhile, the Republican tax scam is working exactly as planned. Today, the richest 400 billionaires pay lower taxes than any group in America – including the poor. Nearly 100 of the top Fortune 500 companies now pay nothing in taxes.

This is what oligarchy looks like: Trump’s appetite to shower the ultra-wealthy with corporate welfare is endless – and so is his administration’s willingness to assault our nation’s most vulnerable and hungriest families.

Republicans defend this by saying that keeping people hungry will make them work harder. But we know this is just about cruelty. We know that withholding food from needy people who are underemployed only deepens the crisis of poverty in America.

Some states will be hit harder than others. Vermont could see a 30% cut to benefits, and one in five low-income people who rely on nutrition assistance could no longer be eligible to participate. In Michigan, about one in seven would be kicked off food aid, with an estimated 15% cut in benefits. This is absolutely devastating.

It goes without saying that we must fight as hard as we can against the Trump administration’s savage attack on nutrition assistance. But we need to go beyond that. We must demand that the ultra-wealthy finally start paying their fair share so we can dramatically expand nutrition support. In the richest country in the history of the world, we have a moral obligation to eradicate the hunger that more than 37 million of our fellow Americans suffer every day.

We can start by increasing nutrition assistance by $47 per person per month – that is the shortfall between what low-income people need to prepare adequate meals and what they get in benefits. We should also significantly increase the income threshold for this program, so everyone who needs help gets it. We must also guarantee that all schoolchildren get free breakfast and lunch at every public school in America.

And we should also lift the onerous conditions on what people can buy with nutrition assistance. One Vermonter shared how, in the cold winter months, she wished she could buy her children a hot-roasted chicken from the store, because she had no access to an oven. Under the current program, she can only buy the day-old cold roasted chicken. Multiple Michigan families have similar stories to share. These are the kinds of requirements that force poor people to jump through humiliating hoops but they accomplish nothing in the fight to end hunger.

This holiday season, we should work in our communities to make sure our most vulnerable neighbors are taken care of and do not go hungry. But we must also be prepared to mobilize millions of people to defeat the Trump administration’s latest attack on the poor – the same way we came together to block Republicans’ attempt to repeal the Affordable Care Act and kick 32 million Americans off their health insurance.

Defending already inadequate benefits is not enough. Ultimately, we must make a choice as a society: will we tolerate the insatiable greed and cruelty of the billionaire class, whose control over our political system lets them take food out of the mouths of hungry school kids? Or do we build a humane, equitable society that ends poverty, hunger, and homelessness – and allows everyone to live with dignity?

As the new year approaches, let us commit to fighting for a government and an economy that works for the overwhelming majority of the people. That is how we will make food security a human right in America.

Bernie Sanders serves Vermont in the United States Senate. Rashida Tlaib, a Democrat, represents Michigan’s 13th congressional district in the US House.
 
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