2020 US Election (Part One)

[Estebonrober]

I've noticed this cycle that multiple states where Bernie won in 2016, but then Biden won in 2020 had substantially increased turnout, whereas some places where Bernie won had similar or lowered turnout (vs 2018 or 2016). This cuts against the narrative that Bernie is rallying increased turnout to his banner. If anything, it seems like Biden is the one who is possibly driving turnout... which I will admit is pretty surprising.

Its why I worry that putting Biden in front of a camera will hurt him while also not doing enough to boost Bernie to victory. And for all your put putting about the DNC not choosing favorites their membership have made it pretty clear their intention if they go into Milwaukee in contention.

 

[Cloud_Strife]

Did "the DNC as an institution" publicly endorse Biden? Or are you talking about the individual Democratic politicians who endorsed Biden collectively as "the DNC"? Or is it Democratic voters as a whole that you are referring to as the DNC? Because it almost sounds like you're complaining that Bernie lost because his supporters are less numerous, and as a result have less "power" collectively, than the "Democrats"... If that's really your position its hard to argue with that, except to say that this is part of how elections, in theory, are supposed to go. The more numerous side has more power, ie the better chance of winning the dispute.

I'll also point out that if you're blaming Biden voters/endorsers for Bernie's losses, because they failed to vote for/support Bernie... how can you complain about Bernie supporters being blamed if Biden loses to Trump for their failure to vote for Biden? Isn't that the exact same thing? Who, to your mind, should they "throw their weight behind"? Someone they don't prefer? Very true, this is certainly a possibility.

Here's my response:

Ok.

 

[Lexicus]

@Cloud_Strife i'll have a response for you when i get back to my computer (currently posting on phone)

 

[Gori the Grey]

If anything, it seems like Biden is the one who is possibly driving turnout... which I will admit is pretty surprising.

Here's my read on that. Biden isn't turning out voters, exactly, but there's a really large number of people whose main motivation is to get Trump out of office. They've been nursing that motivation since November of 2016, and they know that November of 2020 is their first opportunity to practically do anything about it. All they need is a candidate to get named and then they'll rally around that candidate. So all they've needed in the primary season is for it to look like there's some leading candidate. Now that Biden is emerging as that candidate, they're saying "ok, Biden it is then; let's get to November."

 

[Socrates99]

Why did Wallstreet Pete and Cloudbootjar drop out after SC if there wasn't string pulling behind the scenes? Pete did really well in Iowa and Cloudbootjar was polling as a massive favorite in Minnesota. They had no real reason to drop out and endorse Biden before super Tuesday. Are we really pretending there was no "stop Bernie" activity behind the scenes?

 

[hobbsyoyo]

Here's my read on that. Biden isn't turning out voters, exactly, but there's a really large number of people whose main motivation is to get Trump out of office. They've been nursing that motivation since November of 2016, and they know that November of 2020 is their first opportunity to practically do anything about it. All they need is a candidate to get named and then they'll rally around that candidate. So all they've needed in the primary season is for it to look like there's some leading candidate. Now that Biden is emerging as that candidate, they're saying "ok, Biden it is then; let's get to November."

I agree with this take. I think I said before that with any other opponent but Trump, Sanders would be flying through this nomination. But Trump is the 900 pound gorilla in the room and whether or not we all think Biden is the best shot at taking him down, it turns out most Democratic voters do agree with that and vote accordingly.

 

[Sommerswerd]

Its why I worry that putting Biden in front of a camera will hurt him while also not doing enough to boost Bernie to victory. And for all your put putting about the DNC not choosing favorites their membership have made it pretty clear their intention if they go into Milwaukee in contention.

I didn't claim that "the DNC wasn't choosing favs"... the whole point of an election is for people to choose favs isn't it? I asked for clarification on how we were defining "the DNC" for the purposes of this discussion. The reason I asked is because "the DNC" seems to be being a treated as pretty fluid blanket term for "anyone who doesn't support Sanders." What I got in response was basically a non-response, which I generally view as conceding the point.

So now you seem to be defining "the DNC" as "their membership" which again raises the question of who "the membership" constitutes. Is it the Democratic voters at large? Or is it the politicians who endorsed Biden? I ask because I went to a wedding in FL this weekend that was attended by an old friend who is a currently serving FL Democratic politician, and he raised a great point at dinner about the SC primary, Bernie's loss, and the ensuing complaints of his supporters. Essentially he pointed out that (paraphrasing) Bernie's loss keeps getting blamed on "the DNC" and "the establishment"... but wait... the SC voters are mostly black and they voted overwhelmingly for Biden... so since when are black people "the establishment"? Black people are "the establishment" now??? The whole line of argument makes no sense, unless "the DNC" and "the establishment" have simply become proxies for "didn't vote for Sanders".

But even putting that aside...In either case, again... who are people supposed to support, other than their preferred candidate? If people prefer Biden, why wouldn't they endorse/support/vote for him? I just don't see the reasoning behind the gripes being raised.

 

[Socrates99]

I agree with this take. I think I said before that with any other opponent but Trump, Sanders would be flying through this nomination. But Trump is the 900 pound gorilla in the room and whether or not we all think Biden is the best shot at taking him down, it turns out most Democratic voters do agree with that and vote accordingly.

I still challenge the assumption that Biden is best. He has the high propensity voters that will turn out for any blue will do. Those people would turn out for Bernie too. It's those "meh, my best interest" voters that turned out for Obama twice but went to Trump in 2016 that Bernie's trying to court. It's a strategy that's apparently hurt in the primary but in the general Biden gets that high propensity voter while Bernie gets that high propensity voter plus 1.

I think we banked on that plus 1 way too hard in the primary because that voter isnt reliable. That doesn't mean anything for the general because that unreliable voter is what ultimately upset Hillary's sure win in 2016. Trump's forgotten man will never be forgotten won.

 

[Socrates99]

I didn't claim that "the DNC wasn't choosing favs"... the whole point of an election is for people to choose favs isn't it? I asked for clarification on how we were defining "the DNC" for the purposes of this discussion. The reason I asked is because "the DNC" seems to be being a treated as pretty fluid blanket term for "anyone who doesn't support Sanders." What I got in response was basically a non-response, which I generally view as conceding the point.

So now you seem to be defining "the DNC" as "their membership" which again raises the question of who "the membership" constitutes. Is it the Democratic voters at large? Or is it the politicians who endorsed Biden? I ask because I went to a wedding in FL this weekend that was attended by an old friend who is a currently serving FL Democratic politician, and he raised a great point at dinner about the SC primary, Bernie's loss, and the ensuing complaints of his supporters. Essentially he pointed out that (paraphrasing) Bernie's loss keeps getting blamed on "the DNC" and "the establishment"... but wait... the SC voters are mostly black and they voted overwhelmingly for Biden... so since when are black people "the establishment"? Black people are "the establishment" now??? The whole line of argument makes no sense, unless "the DNC" and "the establishment" have simply become proxies for "didn't vote for Sanders".

But even putting that aside...In either case, again... who are people supposed to support, other than their preferred candidate? If people prefer Biden, why wouldn't they endorse/support/vote for him? I just don't see the reasoning behind the gripes being raised.

He was always the favorite in SC. What was the drastic change that caused Amy and Pete to immediately bail and endorse the walking gaffe machine?

 

[Sommerswerd]

I still challenge the assumption that Biden is best. He has the high propensity voters that will turn out for any blue will do. Those people would turn out for Bernie too. It's those "meh, my best interest" voters that turned out for Obama twice but went to Trump in 2016 that Bernie's trying to court. It's a strategy that's apparently hurt in the primary but in the general Biden gets that high propensity voter while Bernie gets that high propensity voter plus 1.

I tended to share this view... in fact a while back I posted a whole analysis of why I thought Bernie was the better choice since I felt that moderates and Democratic die-hards would support any Democratic nominee, including Bernie, while Bernie's staunch supporters were the ones who were more likely to balk at voting for anyone else. For crissakes… I even voted for Bernie against my own Senator and first choice, Warren, based on this analysis.

However, in that conversation this past weekend with my FL politician friend, I had to reconsider that... as he brought up his impression that Democratic politicians down there were genuinely concerned about the negative down-ballot effect of Bernie as a nominee. I was mostly dismissing this concern until I actually heard it from an old friend, who is a lifelong FL resident, and pretty credible on FL politics.

 

[Lexicus]

I respect your opinion Lexicus, it just worries me that in our haste to remove one mentally declining, old bigot, we'll just elect one of a slightly different political shade.

I'm not what you call happy about it either. I really thought Bernie had a shot to win this thing. And I still think beating Trump in November is gonna be an uphill battle for whomever the nominee ends up being. But the fact is the voters have repudiated Bernie in a pretty big way and we need to figure out why that is and how not to repeat it, and how to capitalize on the majorities of Democrats who back Bernie's policies even if they don't seem to have been willing to vote for the man himself.

As leftists we should know that electoral politics isn't going to be an easy arena to succeed in. Bourgeois democracy is rigged; we know this. Instead of complaining about it and acting surprised we need to figure out how we win anyway.

 

[Sommerswerd]

He was always the favorite in SC. What was the drastic change that caused Amy and Pete to immediately bail and endorse the walking gaffe machine?

You know what it was. Bernie was leading, and they realized that Bernie would win as long as the vote remained fractured... but as @Timsup2nothin was repeatedly pointing out, to great scorn and derision... Bernie never had a majority, just a plurality which was being artificailly created by the fractured field. Once Bootyjudge and Klobuchar dropped out, this was plainly exposed.

RCP has Biden polling at 53% now and Bernie at 36%. I think this is pretty strong evidence that Tim was right.

 

[Lexicus]

And Bernie could have campaigned to win a majority...but he didn't. He campaigned to solidify his hold on that plurality while counting on a tide of people who weren't being reflected in the polling to come out and vote for him.

 

[Patine]

Did "the DNC as an institution" publicly endorse Biden? Or are you talking about the individual Democratic politicians who endorsed Biden collectively as "the DNC"? Or is it Democratic voters as a whole that you are referring to as the DNC? Because it almost sounds like you're complaining that Bernie lost because his supporters are less numerous, and as a result have less "power" collectively, than the "Democrats"... If that's really your position its hard to argue with that, except to say that this is part of how elections, in theory, are supposed to go. The more numerous side has more power, ie the better chance of winning the dispute.

I'll also point out that if you're blaming Biden voters/endorsers for Bernie's losses, because they failed to vote for/support Bernie... how can you complain about Bernie supporters being blamed if Biden loses to Trump for their failure to vote for Biden? Isn't that the exact same thing? Who, to your mind, should they "throw their weight behind"? Someone they don't prefer? Very true, this is certainly a possibility.

The DNC is made up of 447 members currently, chosen by the party bureaucracy at the National and State levels with no required or binding input by, or accountability to, rank and file party members.

 

[Lexicus]

Essentially he pointed out that (paraphrasing) Bernie's loss keeps getting blamed on "the DNC" and "the establishment"... but wait... the SC voters are mostly black and they voted overwhelmingly for Biden... so since when are black people "the establishment"? Black people are "the establishment" now??? The whole line of argument makes no sense, unless "the DNC" and "the establishment" have simply become proxies for "didn't vote for Sanders".

I'll field this point...the unspoken part is that the black voters are just too dumb to actually decide on the merits, and like sheep just went en masse for the candidate selected for them by "the establishment." Which is kind of even worse than calling them "the establishment."

 

[Sommerswerd]

And Bernie could have campaigned to win a majority...but he didn't. He campaigned to solidify his hold on that plurality while counting on a tide of people who weren't being reflected in the polling to come out and vote for him.

Remember this exchange?

As does a 45/40/15 split where the two horse race is decided by the third party.

This is the result I think we are headed for... and If the "15" is anyone besides Warren, Bernie is toast.

It's much more direct. In the 45/40/15 split whoever has the 15 is on the ticket as the VP, almost guaranteed. And as Sommer already said, unless the 15 is Warren then they give their fifteen to Biden.

Although I'm still leaning towards that third party making the call before the convention as to who they will support, and the backroom dealing of VP, and cabinet appointments etc already done by then. Taking it all the way to the convention floor would be a figurative ( at least, but potentially literal) bloodbath.

Agreed. I expect it to be done even before the final primaries. The states that don't vote until May and June will only have two official candidates is my guess. Maybe even late April.

aaand as if on queue...BREAKING NEWS: Bootyjudge is out.

Excellent.

No. Not "excellent"... not if you want Sanders to win, anyway. Bootyjudge voters are going 100% over to Biden is my guess. Him dropping out strengthens Biden's hand which is the opposite of what Bernie needs. The Sanders campaign needs the "moderate" vote to remain fractured as long as possible, until Bernie is irreversibly in the delegate lead. Biden's landslide in SC was a worst-case-scenario, because it virtually guarantees that Biden is in it to the bitter end and it encourages the other moderates to drop out because they seem to have no hope. Sanders needed Biden to drop out, or at least appear non-viable... since that ship has sailed he now desperately needs the opposition fractured. His campaign should be sending money to Klobuchar to help her stay in.

 

[hobbsyoyo]

I still challenge the assumption that Biden is best.

I used to agree with this but I am starting to come around to the notion that a known quantity/steady hand are what people want more than anything else at the moment. I think the disconnect between people who like Sander's positions but don't vote for him largely come down to Bernie being unlikable by many people but also (and this is the bigger factor) it's the whole 'devil you know versus the devil you don't know' aspect. And at this point in time, the threat presented by Trump completely shuts down people's willingness to take risks.

I think a very small part of Bernie's failures comes from the unlikability of his fan base. I think this does hurt him but not nearly to the extent that the DNC and Biden supporters make it out to be. But speaking from only my own personal experience, my interactions with Bernie fans here have been a massive turnoff and were a big part of why I personally went with Warren. I would like to reiterate though that I don't think this complaint is very common. I think all the whining about Bernie Bros is mostly that - pointless whining.

IMO the things that hurt Bernie were
1) Devil You Know Problem
2) Unexpectedly poor turnout for his voter base
3) People don't like Bernie
4) People don't like Bernie Bros

Probably with an order of magnitude drop in the severity of each problem sequentially - to the point that 3) and 4) are I think largely non-issues but not non-existent.

 

[Sommerswerd]

And Bernie could have campaigned to win a majority...but he didn't. He campaigned to solidify his hold on that plurality while counting on a tide of people who weren't being reflected in the polling to come out and vote for him.

In fairness... Warren tried exactly this pivot when she took the lead, and got creamed for it.

 

[Lexicus]

In fairness... Warren tried exactly this pivot when she took the lead, and got creamed for it.

I'm not sure I'd totally agree with this, but I have pointed out that many Bernie supporters would see it as a betrayal if Bernie really tried appealing to a majority of Democrats and that's a problem for him.

 

[hobbsyoyo]

Did it actually hurt her? Did it cause her to lose a share of the vote or did she never really have it? It certainly hurt her with Sanders fans but I don't know that majority of the electorate cared about the nuances of difference between her and Sanders. She generated some excitement but I think she never connected with those outside her progressive base, just like Sanders. I don't think it hurt her that she tried though.