2020 US Election (Part Two)

[tuckerkao]

Trump wants a 2000 court repeat. He's not going to do a self-coup...well...2000 sort of was, in some circles...but ya know, they are sticking to their BS line of 'law and order'. If the courts, and his party, tell him to go, he'll go. He'll be a hero to 40% of the population none the less and his family will be royalty to somebody, even if the Republican party tries to dismantle Trumpism. But he will try to play every trick in the book to do so - and it's in the books, so it's no biggie; as we're seeing with Trump and the Federal Forces he's throwing about willy nilly.

Because trust me, if they didn't give a damn for the book but lip-service, this would be a lot worse.

In order to repeat the Election 2000 cycle, the loser must have the margin less than 0.5% within a certain state to trigger the recounting process.

Biden needs to campaign as hard and as smart as he can be in Florida, especially in the Palm Beach regions.

 

[Ironsided]

The clamour has forced the current Democrat presidential campaign to at least promise to nominate a woman for VP, endorse a green new deal and saying that Black Lives Matter. The Republicans are acting like GTA Vice City villains: pay peple to dump toxic waste near schools, tax the poor, give tax cuts to the rich, actively endorse the police killing the aforementioned Blacks, and would rather women stayed in the kitchen.
Nobody's saying that the DNC is the best party ever™, but there's a difference of orders of magnitude here.

And nobody has claimed there isn’t “worse side”. That’s pretty much in total agreement – the bigger disagreement is possibly in the “order of magnitude”.

Dems are now better positioned to win than they have ever been for as long as I remember or know of. As things stand today most likely Biden will win a landslide. Trump is proven to be a horrible president on all levels and whatever advisors he has, they are not helping him. The real underlying economy is failing. International relations are in the toilet. Mass unemployment. The Covid response has been a long saga of mismanagement and quite frankly unseen, extra-terrestrial, levels of idiocy - like drink bleach and take unproven malaria medicine. The polls and favourability are down in the dirt and all these things together can really only lead to one result in the end. Election is less than 100 days away. Trump needs a miracle and then some, a vaccine and an unprecedented upturn of the economy that is just not likely going to happen. The most frightening threat is Biden gaffing it up.

Now, the coming four years Biden and the Dems are going to be the focus of the national malaise. If that is handled in the same incompetent way they currently act in the house and in the shamelessly corrupt rigging in of their terrible nominee, we are going to see people lose faith again and another conservative right wing populist demagogue win ground for 2024. And the 40-year old neoliberal acceleration cycle continues.

“The Bernie movement”, in name, is officially dead now he has so completely capitulated to the establishment. But the grass roots are still there, still organising, and that will be his legacy. The movement and the wish for a future to believe in. Biden has not made any concrete promises, not even a measly executive order promise to rekindle that part of the base. Media says Biden is all but onboard with the GDN, I want to hear him say it and take lead on it before I believe it. But he is sending his mixed signals with actual literal quotes like “Nothing will fundamentally change” when meeting bankers and Wall St. and on 60 minutes to veto the House if they present a bill for M4A. He needs to wake up, and that will take some doing considering his general condition.

The blatant truth is the situation is confusing as all get out. Dems have a borderline demented old man and a golden opportunity for a landslide and a base of voters who want the opposite of the donors. The main problem is the current leadership just don’t have what it takes to translate that into action and mediate those wills and make a win count for something and to bring about real change. Much less any will at all to end the tragically corrupt lobby and donor system. They must be replaced but there is really no way to do that now. They won, and remain too comfortable and secure and never challenged because ”lesser evil”. OK, sour grapes for progressives and big day out for status quo liberals, I guess. I’ll be happy to see the back of Trump but this also seems like such a wasted opportunity for change it’s really hard to not be bitter about it.

 

[Takhisis]

Trump is proven to be a horrible president on all levels and whatever advisors he has, they are not helping him. The real underlying economy is failing. International relations are in the toilet. Mass unemployment. The Covid response has been a long saga of mismanagement and quite frankly unseen, extra-terrestrial, levels of idiocy - like drink bleach and take unproven malaria medicine.

If we see the example of the Bush presidency (bogged down in two horrendous, unnecessary, illegal wars, horrible emergency response exemplified by hurricane Katrina, a self-inflicted financial crisis, terrorist killings by the thousand in the US mainland that happened only because they relaxed anti-terrorism preparations, and various additional cætera) and, while people voted for Obama in the presidential election, the conservative movement represented by the Republican Party managed to retain control of Congress, successfully whittle down the ACA and water down the Paris Accords, and even pack the Supreme Court of the U.S. of A and still retain control of key branches of government, e.g. they still retain control of the Senate even if they lost their House majority, and their judges are appointed for life. So unless this drags them down all across the board they'll be back to obstructing everything while the real power players tear up the country and also the world.

 

[tuckerkao]

If we see the example of the Bush presidency (bogged down in two horrendous, unnecessary, illegal wars, horrible emergency response exemplified by hurricane Katrina, a self-inflicted financial crisis, terrorist killings by the thousand in the US mainland that happened only because they relaxed anti-terrorism preparations, and various additional cætera) and, while people voted for Obama in the presidential election, the conservative movement represented by the Republican Party managed to retain control of Congress, successfully whittle down the ACA and water down the Paris Accords, and even pack the Supreme Court of the U.S. of A and still retain control of key branches of government, e.g. they still retain control of the Senate even if they lost their House majority, and their judges are appointed for life. So unless this drags them down all across the board they'll be back to obstructing everything while the real power players tear up the country and also the world.

The Democrats could hardly ever win the 3rd consecutive term of the U.S. presidency after Franklin D. Roosevelt. The Electoral College has benefited the Republicans from many of the demographic perspectives.

If Puerto Rico gained its statehood before year 2000, Gore would have been the U.S. president, not Bush Jr. The Democrats need to reach out broader ranges of the voters and don't forget to vote on the Election Day.

As soon as George W. Bush started his presidential term, the fortune of the United States dwindled year by year.

 

[Patine]

If we see the example of the Bush presidency (bogged down in two horrendous, unnecessary, illegal wars, horrible emergency response exemplified by hurricane Katrina, a self-inflicted financial crisis, terrorist killings by the thousand in the US mainland that happened only because they relaxed anti-terrorism preparations, and various additional cætera) and, while people voted for Obama in the presidential election, the conservative movement represented by the Republican Party managed to retain control of Congress, successfully whittle down the ACA and water down the Paris Accords, and even pack the Supreme Court of the U.S. of A and still retain control of key branches of government, e.g. they still retain control of the Senate even if they lost their House majority, and their judges are appointed for life. So unless this drags them down all across the board they'll be back to obstructing everything while the real power players tear up the country and also the world.

Except that Trump's not actually a Conservative, ideologically. He's a vapid, vitriolic, incendiary, fire-spitting Populist with little in the way of a coherent platform who PANDERS to (but doesn't necessarily belong to) among the worst ideological blocs in the nation.

 

[Ironsided]

True, and I also must also agree with Tak and (yourself I believe) that at least from the outside; Bush Jr was even worse than Trump. However, I don’t think that sentiment is shared by Americans in general. And average Americans were not threatened or in the gutter to the same extent then as they are now. It’s certainly a different experience on here in OT. Bush worked within the GOP framework and conservatives being conservatives; that was often enough. Bush Jr, and the wars, had a lot of defenders, here and elsewhere. Now we have a lot of conservative people openly supporting Biden (who in all fairness is more of an old school conservative than the loose canon in the White House). Obama for all his lack of policy execution, taking Americans from two conflicts to seven, was a big progressive win in the fact alone of being the first black president. I remember at least being hopeful when he won. Biden will be a silent stinky wet fart by comparison.

 

[Hrothbern]

About not seeing the forest because overwhelmed by the trees.

I think the main risk the US is facing is that it is slowly being taken over by Big Corporate who leverage very effectively their semi-monopoly power over the consumption choices of citizens.
Some Big Corporates are getting really big and many more are growing covering more and more of the total consumption of citizens.

You can see that as a new kind of "democracy" where the amount of voting power is shifting A. to the shareholders of the new centres of power with Barons in charge and B. to the (size of the) wallets of the consumers.

The "old" democratic institutions become like a thin shell that keeps the appearances up of legitimacy. Like all the rituals and traditions, like all the pomp and fancy garments of some constitutional European monarchy.
The "old" democratic institutions are saddled up with spending as little as possible money to keep the people "happy enough" and provide enough legal stability to provide a teethless setting for the Barons to thrive.
To protect the overall system against other nations the "old" democratic institutions get more than enough money for a strong military with ample R&D for cutting edge techs.

It is a bit of a reset to the late 19th century situation of many countries in Europe where voting rights were restricted to people having enough wealth or income.

 

[GenMarshall]

I think the main risk the US is facing is that it is slowly being taken over by Big Corporate who leverage very effectively their semi-monopoly power over the consumption choices of citizens.
Some Big Corporates are getting really big and many more are growing covering more and more of the total consumption of citizens.

You can see that as a new kind of "democracy" where the amount of voting power is shifting A. to the shareholders of the new centres of power with Barons in charge and B. to the (size of the) wallets of the consumers.

This would be very concerning for me seeing a a democracy or a republic turning into a corptocracy seen in sci-fi cyberpunk distopias.

 

[Zardnaar]

This would be very concerning for me seeing a a democracy or a republic turning into a corptocracy seen in sci-fi cyberpunk distopias.

Not there yet. I suspect the right will collapse soon enough.

 

[Patine]

This would be very concerning for me seeing a a democracy or a republic turning into a corptocracy seen in sci-fi cyberpunk distopias.

Not there yet. I suspect the right will collapse soon enough.

I remember those '80's movies, TV shows, books, graphic novels and comics, and role-playing games, and a few early computer games. Be VERY afraid. And, @Zardnaar, please understand that this rising Corporatist Plutocracy is NOT EITHER right-wing OR left-wing, Republican OR Democratic, it rules both and both serve, support, sellout to, accept the bribes of, and provide fertile ground for the growth and entrenchment of this vile cancerous growth. They are BOTH criminally compliscant, and thus you CANNOT vote against the Plutocracy by voting for a candidate on any Duopoly party label or ticket. PERIOD, FULL STOP!

 

[Zardnaar]

I remember those '80's movies, TV shows, books, graphic novels and comics, and role-playing games, and a few early computer games. Be VERY afraid. And, @Zardnaar, please understand that this rising Corporatist Plutocracy is NOT EITHER right-wing OR left-wing, Republican OR Democratic, it rules both and both serve, support, sellout to, accept the bribes of, and provide fertile ground for the growth and entrenchment of this vile cancerous growth. They are BOTH criminally compliscant, and thus you CANNOT vote against the Plutocracy by voting for a candidate on any Duopoly party label or ticket. PERIOD, FULL STOP!

I think the neo liberal idea will collapse over the next decade or so.

 

[Patine]

I think the neo liberal idea will collapse over the next decade or so.

Are you naïve enough to believe the rising Corporatist Plutocracy is Classical or Neo-Liberalism, just because they share Capitalistic terminology and praise?

 

[Ironsided]

I remember those '80's

Me too.

 

[IglooDame]

Trump wants a 2000 court repeat. He's not going to do a self-coup...well...2000 sort of was, in some circles...but ya know, they are sticking to their BS line of 'law and order'. If the courts, and his party, tell him to go, he'll go. He'll be a hero to 40% of the population none the less and his family will be royalty to somebody, even if the Republican party tries to dismantle Trumpism. But he will try to play every trick in the book to do so - and it's in the books, so it's no biggie; as we're seeing with Trump and the Federal Forces he's throwing about willy nilly.

Because trust me, if they didn't give a damn for the book but lip-service, this would be a lot worse.

2000 only happened because the overall EC victory margin was relatively thin, and because a state with more delegates than that EC margin itself was too close to call; essentially SCOTUS had to play tiebreaker.

The real issue is what if it's not a tie, but rather Biden clearly winning a majority of the delegates? Trump has successfully used court challenges throughout his presidency (mostly to delay losses) and I wouldn't be surprised if he filed legal challenges presumably claiming ballot fraud. But I also expect those challenges to get tossed before mid-December, because there's a process in place, and because courts will require some sort of proof, which historically he's not provided. If enough state courts hold up an EC delegate vote in state capitals, then that's where things start getting messy, and the Twentieth Amendment becomes the most-websearched term for a while.

 

[Samson]

In a generally well referenced article, it stands out that "there is immense reason for concern about mail-in ballots" has no justification.

Just found this, and I think it fairly clearly shows that they pulled this from somewhere the sun does not shine:
Fact-checking Trump's recent claims that mail-in voting is rife with fraud

Specifically, and without evidence, Trump has claimed that mail-in voting is particularly susceptible to fraud, casting it as a lawless, unregulated exercise where ballots are stolen from mailboxes, voter signatures are routinely forged and even the ballots themselves are illegally printed.
Ballot harvesting
there is no evidence to back up his claims about widespread ballot theft or signature forgery across California. Furthermore, there's no evidence ballots counted on or after election day in California's 2018 elections were illegally obtained or "harvested."
Forgery, theft and illegal printing?
Mail ballot fraud is exceedingly rare in part because states have systems and processes in place to prevent forgery, theft and voter fraud.
Mail-in ballots and fraud
While rare instances of voter fraud from mail-in ballots do occur, it is nowhere near a widespread problem in the US election system.
California vote-by-mail
Trump repeated his claim during a news conference, saying that "people that aren't citizens, illegals, anybody that walks in California is gonna get a ballot."
Facts First: This is completely false. Newsom's order provides mail-in ballots only to people who are registered to vote. Noncitizens, including undocumented immigrants, are explicitly not permitted to register to vote in federal elections.
​

 

[Takhisis]

Are you naïve enough to believe the rising Corporatist Plutocracy is Classical or Neo-Liberalism, just because they share Capitalistic terminology and praise?

Well, it's not for nothing that they also happen to be in league with those who still claim that the US civil war was about the US government being against freedom by taking away the slavers' freedom to pwn slaves, i.e. deprive others of their freedom.
As I have said many times including recently, the end result of unfettered capitalism is cartelisation. By taking away social, environmental and financial protections (strawmanned as ‘RED TAPE!’) they effectively gain the right to own others. Sure, it's not legal, complete slavery, but if you have one monopoly or oligopoly on each type of good and also monopsonies or at least price-setting oligopsonies in the jobs market then people are effectively fungible and the world is an anthill ready to be stamped on by any bored playboy (see Varrick in the Avatarverse).

 

[Camikaze]

Apparently Biden will announce his VP next week, and has been photographed holding Kamala Harris talking points, also apparently Politico leaked that Kamala Harris was the choice.

So if what I have learned about the usual VP selection process is correct, we can definitely rule out Kamala Harris.

 

[mitsho]

It would explain her sudden departure from the race. That was a gamble that paid off - if true. I've recently read Susan Rice as well, with the main argument being "you need someone who was involved deeply in the last administration as a primary task is to rebuild every department that Trump hollowed out and demolished. I can see that...

What I would find really interesting is if Biden would not only present his running mate, but expand that to the 3 most important ministries as well. Kind of present a "we, the team, are serious on policy". These three ministries are of course Justice (to investigate all the corruption of the Trump era), Environment (to get serious on climate change / address the Corona recession with a forward economic plan) and wherever he wants to include someone from the Sanders wing (there's no "black live matter"-department, but it can be health, finance or something else). That would be cool.

 

[Edmund Ironside]

What I would find really interesting is if Biden would not only present his running mate, but expand that to the 3 most important ministries as well.

That would be nice. Wouldn't it be a novelty if we could have someone (potentially) in charge of the EPA who believed in climate change and wasn't a fossil fuel lobbyist!

 

[Birdjaguar]

Announcing Cabinet positions now would be pretty huge even if it was only for a few of them. Would Bernie take one (now or later)?

It would explain her sudden departure from the race. That was a gamble that paid off - if true. I've recently read Susan Rice as well, with the main argument being "you need someone who was involved deeply in the last administration as a primary task is to rebuild every department that Trump hollowed out and demolished. I can see that...

What I would find really interesting is if Biden would not only present his running mate, but expand that to the 3 most important ministries as well. Kind of present a "we, the team, are serious on policy". These three ministries are of course Justice (to investigate all the corruption of the Trump era), Environment (to get serious on climate change / address the Corona recession with a forward economic plan) and wherever he wants to include someone from the Sanders wing (there's no "black live matter"-department, but it can be health, finance or something else). That would be cool.