2020 US Election (Part Two)

[Patine]

Trump claiming that the election is rigged is just more clown attitude by him - should be clear by now that he is a circus act.

Every U.S. election has been rigged by the corrupt Duopoly party machine for decades (Russia- or Zimbabwe-style, but with a 19th Century Spanish Turno Pacifico or Argentinian or Colombian "Gentleman's Agreement" flourish, to prevent them from ever having to face the possibility of being called to account at the ballot box, as the failed, corrupt, treasonous, and high criminal political parties that have constantly violated and abdicated the public trust and their oaths of office and Constitutional mandates of power, and Trump, himself, benefitted from that rigged system when he decided to run as a Republican in 2016, and his original plan of a number of years back of running on the ticket of Ross Perot's Reform Party.

 

[El_Machinae]

He can yap but Congress sets the election date. Too bad for him, eh?

Too bad for the citizen, actually. This is a guy who began his political run with "we should have taken the oil" and his presidency with lies about both voter turnout and the size of his electoral college victory.

He's fomenting destructive destabilization. The damage is to the voter process.

 

[Camikaze]

Remember when the teeth-gnashing over Trump posing a threat to democracy seemed overwrought? Those were the days.

 

[Patine]

Too bad for the citizen, actually. This is a guy who began his political run with "we should have taken the oil" and his presidency with lies about both voter turnout and the size of his electoral college victory.

He's fomenting destructive destabilization. The damage is to the voter process.

But, regardless of his rhetoric, vitriol, and lies, he still does lack the personal power in his nation than many African and Post-Soviet Presidents have in their nations' by far (a reason I often dispute the "Most Powerful Man in the World," title on the U.S. President because of their much more limited personal power by their own decision and fiat alone with their nation compared to the Presidents of China or Russia, and certainly previously the General Secretary of the Party of the USSR, in theirs).

 

[Birdjaguar]

Congress may not get to decide. Some cite the 20th Amendment giving Congress the authority, but even the 20th doesn't describe a scenario in which there is no election, just one in which both the president elect and vice president elect are disqualified for some reason.

Plus, without an election Congress will be gutted and might not get to make a decision because of that. I mean, come January 20th we'll be down to just 2/3 of the Senate and no House. Wouldn't seem fair to let just 2/3 of one of our legislative houses decide the president.

That's why I think going down the line of succession is the most likely scenario. That means either President Grassley or President Pompeo until there is an election.

The new congress convenes on Jan 3 2021 so if the president is still undecided by the 20th, the Speaker of the House would be president. If there is no election, then there is no new congress. Does that mean that on Jan 3rd that Congress will consist of only Senators who did not face election in 2020?How does that break down? How many Dem vs Repub Senators are not up for election in Nov?

 

[Hrothbern]

The new congress convenes on Jan 3 2021 so if the president is still undecided by the 20th, the Speaker of the House would be president. If there is no election, then there is no new congress. Does that mean that on Jan 3rd that Congress will consist of only Senators who did not face election in 2020?How does that break down? How many Dem vs Repub Senators are not up for election in Nov?

There are more GOP Senator seats up for election than Dems seats.

 

[Birdjaguar]

There are more GOP Senator seats up for election than Dems seats.

Yes, but the key is how many aren't up for election in each party. If Senate terms end on Jan 2 2021, then only those not previously up for election are left in place. Mitch McConnell would be out.

 

[Hrothbern]

Yes, but the key is how many aren't up for election in each party. If Senate terms end on Jan 2 2021, then only those not previously up for election are left in place. Mitch McConnell would be out.

I don't understand.

The 2020 United States Senate elections will be held on November 3, 2020,[1] with the 33 class 2 seats of the Senate being contested in regular elections.[2] The winners will be elected to six-year terms extending from January 3, 2021, to January 3, 2027.[3] There will also be two special elections: one in Arizona to fill the vacancy created by the death of John McCain in 2018 and one in Georgia following the resignation of Johnny Isakson at the end of 2019.[4][5]

In the 2014 United States Senate elections (the last regularly scheduled elections for class 2 Senate seats), the Republicans won nine seats from the Democrats and gained a majority in the Senate.[6] Republicans defended that majority in 2016[7] and 2018, and now hold 53 Senate seats. Democrats hold 45 seats, and independents caucusing with the Democratic Party hold two seats.[8]

Including the special elections in Arizona and Georgia, Republicans will be defending 23 seats in 2020, while the Democratic Party will be defending 12 seats.[9] Democrats will need to pick up three or four seats to gain a majority, depending on which party wins control of the vice presidency.[a][10]

The GOP holds 53 Senate seats of which 23 seats are up for the 2020 elections => 30 seats for the GOP in a reduced Senate when there are no elections.
The Dems incl 2 independent caucusing with the Dems, hold 45 Senate seats of which 12 seats are up for the 2020 elections => 33 seats for the Dems + independents in a reduced Senate when there are no elections.

Is this not a 33-30 majority for the Dems in the reduced Senate ?

 

[Birdjaguar]

@Hrothbern If your numbers are correct, then yes, on Jan 3, 2021, the Dems might well have a senate majority.

 

[Hrothbern]

@Hrothbern If your numbers are correct, then yes, on Jan 3, 2021, the Dems might well have a senate majority.

This was the source
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_Senate_elections

and yes that escape route for Trump will then not work

 

[Sommerswerd]

In a scenario where there is absolutely no election and Trump is hypothetically using that as an excuse to stay in office, I am thinking that the members of Congress, in both the House and Senate will be claiming the same excuse to remain in office, particularly the Republicans. It does not seem reasonable to expect the Republicans in the House and Senate to voluntarily step down from their offices and leave them vacant when the Republican President is refusing to do so. Of course, then the Democrats will likely equally refuse to step down in retaliation.

In other words, if Trump cancels the election and then refuses to step down as a result, then there will be indefinite Congressional status quo.

 

[Sommerswerd]

Remember when the teeth-gnashing over Trump posing a threat to democracy seemed overwrought? Those were the days.

There never were any such days

 

[Hrothbern]

Trump is hypothetically using that as an excuse to stay in office, I am thinking that the members of Congress, in both the House and Senate will be claiming the same excuse to remain in office,

But when the constitution is clear that Trump can no longer be President after Jan 20... that excuse would be gone at Jan 20.
Or not ?

 

[Sommerswerd]

But when the constitution is clear that Trump can no longer be President after Jan 20... that excuse would be gone at Jan 20.
Or not ?

Again, I think it is of limited utility to imagine that Trump's actions will be informed/governed by voluntary adherence to any rules/laws/traditions, etc., or that his actions need any reasonably supportable or logical basis behind them. Trump does not need an "excuse" to stay in office... not one that makes any rational and/or legal sense anyway. He has repeatedly demonstrated that he will essentially do whatever he wants and just make up whatever cockamamie justification that springs to mind.

If there is an election, and he loses, he might leave office. If there is no election, he would have to be removed by force, and I just don't see that happening. I think its far more likely that he just sticks around indefinitely until there an actual election.

 

[Commodore]

Does that mean that on Jan 3rd that Congress will consist of only Senators who did not face election in 2020?

That seems to be the consensus from what I've been reading. And if that's the case, then there will be no Speaker of the House.

 

[RobAnybody]

Fwiw, Chuck Grassley, next in line after Pelosi, isn't up in 2020. I don't think succession rules will come into play though because the 20th Amendment appears to overrule it. So if all running Congress members are out, Dems likely control Congress for the vote or if not, they'd need, what, 3 Reps in the Senate to hate Trump enough to vote for Biden? Or would they need to get to 60?

 

[Camikaze]

There never were any such days

Well I always thought the denial of the possibility was a curious form of American exceptionalism, but it was still a relatively fringe view until roughly the last month.

 

[Birdjaguar]

It is probably not a coincidence that Trump made his delay the election remark on the day the 2nd Q GDP is announced as the worst and the virus death toll crosses 150,000. He is all about distraction.

 

[EnglishEdward]

I blame this on Boris who cancelled local elections in the the UK.

 

[Takhisis]

I blame this on Boris who cancelled local elections in the the UK.

It's the wrong New York-born blond maniac with more inherited wealth than sense.